Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Mets (-128) at Braves (+118) — 7:35 PM EST
Braves in: Freddie Freeman (left wrist)
Freddie Freeman‘s x-rays and CT scans on his wrist came back negative, so he’ll start at first base and bat third against the Mets. The Braves are currently implied to score a respectable 4.5 runs and are set up well against Matt Harvey, who has posted a brutal 1.81 WHIP over the past 12 months while allowing a slate-high 2.138 home runs per nine innings pitched. Overall, each of Freeman, Preston Tucker, and Ryan Flaherty have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Harvey has continued to struggle to limit big hits this season, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Freeman in particular is set up well, as he ranks second among all first basemen in Thursday’s main slate in both wOBA and ISO vs. righties. Harvey has a very low strikeout floor against a Braves lineup that has combined to strike out every .172 at bats over the past calendar year – the lowest mark in Thursday’s main slate.
Marlins (+167) at Brewers (-182) — 8:10 PM EST
Brewers out: Ryan Braun (left calf)
Brewers in: Christian Yelich
Ryan Braun is dealing with a left calf injury, so Christian Yelich will bat second for a Brewers lineup currently implied to score a slate-high 5.3 runs. They’re set up well against Dillon Peters, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. Overall, Yelich, Domingo Santana, and Jesus Aguilar form the slate’s third-highest ranked three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Santana is particularly in play thanks to his +1.74 Projected Plus/Minus – the second-highest mark among all outfielders in Thursday’s main slate. Peters is one of just three pitchers in Thursday’s main slate that have allowed a WHIP above 1.7 over the past calendar year. Still, each of the Brewers’ aforementioned players have a projected ownership rate of at least 9-12 percent on DraftKings.
Pictured: Freddie Freeman
Photo via Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
