The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
On some days, you have the luxury of being able to roster someone like Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, or Jacob deGrom. Today is not one of those days. Still, four pitchers have a salary of at least $10,200 on DraftKings:
- Patrick Corbin (L) $11,900, ARI vs. LAA
- Blake Snell (L) $11,500, TB vs. KC
- Jose Berrios (R) $10,900, MIN @ CWS
- Masahiro Tanaka (R) $10,200, NYY @ MIA
Corbin has been fantastic over his past five starts, posting an average Plus/Minus of +7.48 on DraftKings. He’s been excellent from a strikeout perspective, recording at least 7 Ks in all five starts, and he’s combined that with a hard-hit rate of just 28% over his past two.
His current matchup with the Angels is intriguing. Their projected lineup has been horrible against left-handers over the past 12 months, resulting in a wOBA of just .254, but they’ve also posted a low strikeout rate of 20.6%. His resulting K Prediction of 6.8 ranks only sixth among starting pitchers. He does have impressive Vegas data, owning an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs and moneyline odds of -195, but there are other pitchers with better marks at lower price tags.
One of those pitchers is Snell, who leads all starters with nine Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s put together an excellent campaign in 2018, pitching to a 2.10 ERA and 10.08 K/9 through his first 23 starts. He’s been particularly impressive in his past two outings, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -25 feet and hard-hit differential of -13 percentage points.
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Snell has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Kansas City Royals, who have averaged the fewest runs per game this season. Their projected lineup has been futile against left-handed pitching, owning a .293 wOBA and 24.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Unsurprisingly, Snell leads all pitchers in three key categories: opponent implied team total (2.7 runs), moneyline odds (-236), and K Prediction (7.8). Pitchers with comparable marks in all three categories have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.28 on DraftKings, and factoring in comparable recent Statcast marks increases the average Plus/Minus to +6.27 (per the Trends tool). He’s the clear top pitcher on the slate, especially on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Tanaka is another pitcher in a great spot. He’s taking on the Miami Marlins, and his resulting opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs and moneyline odds of -210 trail only Snell’s marks among starting pitchers. The big differences between Tanaka and Snell are that Tanaka doesn’t have as much strikeout upside, evidenced by a K Prediction of 6.3, and he doesn’t enter today’s contest in nearly the same recent Statcast form. He’s allowed his past two opponents to compile an average distance of 210 feet, exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 40%; all three represent increases compared to his 12-month averages.
Berrios rounds out the top tier of pitchers, and he’s the hardest to back. He has a decent matchup vs. the White Sox, but that’s not really reflected in his opponent implied team total of 4.4 runs. He’s allowed hard contact on 44% of balls put in play over his past two starts, so the Sox could do some damage if they limit their strikeouts. That said, Berrios does have a K Prediction of 7.2, so it’s possible he could negate his poor Statcast numbers if he can generate enough swings and misses. He’s worth some consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) given his ownership projection of just 2-4% on FanDuel.
Values
Junior Guerra is a really intriguing option for those looking to pay down at pitcher on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $6,700 but has an opponent implied team total of 3.8 runs and moneyline odds of -188 vs. the Cincinnati Reds. Guerra has also displayed good strikeout ability, posting a K/9 of 9.12 over the past 12 months, resulting in a solid K Prediction of 6.5 today.
Where Guerra really stands out, though, is with his recent Statcast data. He’s held his past two opponents to an average distance of just 181 feet, which represents a decrease of -32 feet compared to his 12-month average. Historically, pitchers with comparable moneyline odds, distance differentials, and K Predictions have posted a Plus/Minus of +3.71 and a Consistency Rating of 62% on DraftKings.
At this point in the season, every starting pitcher with a pulse is worth considering against the Baltimore Orioles. Their projected lineup owns a splits-adjusted wOBA of .257 and strikeout rate of 26.8%, both of which are among the worst marks on the slate. Sam Gaviglio gets the honor of facing them today, and he boasts a K Prediction of 7.1 and moneyline odds of -140. He hasn’t been particularly impressive in 2018, evidenced by a 5.13 ERA, but he has posted a respectable K/9 of 8.52. You could do a lot worse at $6,800 on DraftKings.
Fastballs
Steven Matz: He’s been up and down in 2018 and has posted a dreadful average Plus/Minus of -9.05 over the past month on FanDuel, but he does have a plus matchup today vs. the San Francisco Giants. Their projected lineup has mustered a .299 wOBA and 25.5% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Dylan Bundy: He could be an interesting buy-low option across the industry after seeing a salary decrease of at least $1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel over his past 10 games. His Vegas data is terrifying – he has an opponent implied team total of 4.9 runs and is a +129 underdog – but he has strikeout upside and should command minimal ownership.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Curtis Granderson (L)
- 2. Devon Travis (R)
- 4. Kendrys Morales (S)
- 5. Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- 6. Kevin Pillar (R)
Total Salary: $19,600
Even though the Jays are grading out highly in the Bales Model, they will almost undoubtedly be a contrarian target: None of the stacked batters has an ownership projection greater than 2-4%. Their implied team total of 4.9 runs is solid enough, but it’s more than a full run lower than the Rockies’ mark at Coors Field.
That said, the Jays do look like a nice value if this game does play. Their Team Value Rating of 74 ranks third on DraftKings, and arguably no team is collectively in better recent Statcast form. Each of the five stacked batters have eclipsed their 12-month averages in hard-hit rate over the past 15 days, and Granderson, Travis, Hernandez, and Pillar have combined that with a distance differential of at least +20 feet over the same time frame. The above stack is also very affordable at just $19,600, which makes them a strong target to pair with some of the more expensive pitching options on the slate.
If you are looking to stack Coors Field, the top FanDuel stack by projected points belongs to the Rockies:
- 1. Charlie Blackmon (L)
- 2. DJ LeMahieu (R)
- 3. Nolan Arenado (R)
- 4. Trevor Story (R)
Total Salary: $17,100
The majority of the stacked batters will be on the positive side of their batting splits against Padres left-hander Robbie Erlin, who has posted a 4.55 ERA when pitching away from the friendly confines of Petco Park this season. The Rockies have destroyed left-handed pitching in 2018, with their .344 wOBA ranking second in the league.
If you are stacking the Rockies, it could make sense to swap out Blackmon for projected No. 6 hitter Ian Desmond. He’s posted superior numbers against left-handers over the past 12 months and owns a distance differential of +30 feet over his past 11 contests.
Other Batters
Eric Thames is currently listed as questionable but appears on track to play vs. Reds right-hander Sal Romano. If he is active, he provides a lot of upside at what should be minimal ownership. He’s posted a .359 wOBA and .293 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months and owns an elite average distance of 294 feet and hard-hit rate of 60% over his past three contests. His nine Pro Trends are tied for the most on FanDuel, and the Brewers are currently implied for 5.4 runs.
Ben Zobrist is expected to occupy the leadoff spot in the lineup for the Cubs, who are implied for 5.3 runs vs. Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann. Zobrist is a switch-hitter but has fared much better against righties over the past 12 months, and he’s posted positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. He’s fairly priced across the industry and is grading out as one of the top batters in our models.
If you’re looking to buy low on someone, consider Tommy Pham. He’s gone 0-14 over his past four games, but that belies some really impressive Statcast numbers over that time frame. He’s posted an average distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 97 miles per hour, and hard-hit rate of 47%; those marks suggest that better results are in his future.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Blake Snell
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
