The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Even though only 14 teams are in action tonight, there are a ton of top pitchers to choose from. Five have a salary above $10,000 on DraftKings:
- Max Scherzer (R): $13,300, WAS @ NYM – S. Matz
- James Paxton (L): $12,500, SEA @ LAA – T. Skaggs
- Blake Snell (L): $11,700, TB @ MIN – K. Gibson
- Luis Severino (R): $10,800, NYY @ CLE – C. Kluber
- Corey Kluber (R): $10,200, CLE vs NYY – L. Severino
Scherzer is the priciest option of the group and has arguably the best matchup against the hapless New York Mets. Their projected lineup has struggled to a .298 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months, and they have averaged the fifth-fewest runs per game this season. Pitchers facing the Mets have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.69 on DraftKings since the start of May.
Scherzer is also putting together arguably the best season of his career. He owns career-best marks in both ERA (2.33) and K/9 (12.48) and trails only Jacob deGrom in WAR among NL starters (per Fangraphs). Unsurprisingly, he has outstanding marks in the three big pitching categories with a 2.9-run opponent implied total, -207 moneyline odds, and 9.4 K Prediction.
If that wasn’t enough, he also is in elite Statcast form. He’s limited his past two opponents to an average distance of just 197 feet, which represents a decrease of -16 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, K Predictions and distance differentials have historically been tremendous investments, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.45 and a Consistency Rating of 73.7% on DraftKings (per the Trends tool). This is quite possibly one on the best pitching spots of the entire season.
Severino and Kluber are squaring off in Cleveland in a battle of marquee pitchers. Severino is a slight -114 favorite despite being on the road, while Kluber has a slightly higher K Prediction at 7.9. Neither pitcher has posted particularly impressive Statcast numbers over his past two starts, but each will likely have depressed ownership given the matchup. They’re appealing pivots off of Scherzer for guaranteed prize pools.
Paxton has been impressive recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.51 on DraftKings over his past 10 starts. He’s struck out at least nine batters in each of his past four starts, and his K/9 of 11.68 ranks sixth among starting pitchers in 2018.
That said, he’s tough to trust vs. the Los Angeles Angels. Their projected lineup owns the lowest splits-adjusted strikeout rate on the slate at 19.1%, resulting in a somewhat pedestrian K Prediction of 6.8. The Angels are also implied for 3.8 runs, which is only the fifth-lowest total on the slate. Paxton’s much easier to roster on FanDuel, where his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Rounding out the stud group is Snell, who somehow didn’t make the AL All-star team despite leading the league in ERA. Unfortunately, Vegas doesn’t seem to believe in him today, as his opponent implied total of 3.9 runs ranks last among the high-priced pitchers. His K Prediction of 7.0 is just the fifth-highest mark on the slate. There is also currently a 50% chance of precipitation at game time, which is problematic considering Target Field doesn’t have a roof. He is projected for just 2-4% ownership on FanDuel — which could make him an intriguing contrarian option — but there isn’t a ton to like with Snell today.
Values
Outside of Scherzer, the most appealing pitching option might be Ross Stripling. He leads all pitchers in Pro Trends on FanDuel and has an outstanding matchup vs. the San Diego Padres. He ranks second to Scherzer in opponent implied run total (3.2), moneyline odds (-179) and K Prediction (8.5) and has posted a distance differential of -5 feet over his past two starts. Pairing Scherzer and Stripling together on DraftKings is difficult, leaving an average of just $3,450 for the remaining roster spots, but it could be worth considering for cash games.
Tyler Skaggs was once an elite prospect and is starting to live up to his potential. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.73 over his past five starts, and the Statcast data from his most recent start is outstanding with a 183-foot distance, 89-mph exit velocity and 21% hard-hit rate. He has a difficult matchup today vs. the Seattle Mariners, whose projected lineup has posted a .317 wOBA and strikeout rate of just 20.6% against left-handers over the past 12 months, but he still deserves consideration on DraftKings, given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fastballs
Steven Matz: He’s been impressive since the beginning of May, owning an ERA of 2.78 over his past 12 starts. His recent Statcast data reflects those numbers, as he owns negative differentials in distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rates over his past two starts. He’s a large underdog vs. Scherzer and the Nationals but is extremely affordable at just $5,900 on DraftKings.
Jameson Taillon: He has had an up-and-down season but is in a potential boom spot today vs. the Milwaukee Brewers. They’ve posted the fifth-highest strikeout rate against right-handers this season, and Taillon has managed a K/9 of 8.58 over the past 12 months. He’s another affordable option on DraftKings, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On DraftKings, the top five-man stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
- 1. Joc Pederson (L)
- 2. Max Muncy (L)
- 3. Justin Turner (R)
- 5. Matt Kemp (R)
- 7. Chris Taylor (R)
Total Salary: $22,400
Their implied team total of 4.4 runs is the third-highest mark on the slate. Their total is nearly a full run lower than that of the Red Sox (5.2), but they are also nearly $5,000 cheaper than the top Sox stack, and that difference is important on a slate with so many top pitchers. They have a nice matchup today vs. Padres right-hander Tyson Ross, who has averaged a WHIP of 1.59 over the past 12 months. The Statcast data from his past two starts is concerning as well, particularly his average distance of 230 feet.
Hitting seventh, Taylor could be an important differentiator for Dodgers stacks. He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings and leads the team with a distance differential of +16 feet over his past 12 games.
On FanDuel, the top-rated stack for projected Plus/Minus belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
- 1. Randal Grichuk (R)
- 2. Teoscar Hernandez (R)
- 3. Yangervis Solarte (S)
- 4. Kendrys Morales (S)
Total Salary: $10,600
The Jays are one of the most intriguing teams on FanDuel. They’re implied for just 3.9 runs, but that doesn’t figure to matter as much today as it normally would, since only one team owns an implied total of more than 4.5 runs. They are extremely affordable, however, with the second-highest Team Value Rating (74). Each of the stacked batters has a Bargain Rating of at least 95%, and Hernandez and Solarte each own a Bargain Rating of 99%. All four of the batters are on the positive side of their splits vs. Red Sox left-hander David Price.
Other Batters
The Red Sox will likely be the most popular team today, but Andrew Benintendi could fly under the radar in a lefty-lefty matchup vs. Blue Jays pitcher J.A. Happ. Benintendi has posted a distance differential of +18 feet and hard-hit differential of +14 percentage points over his past 13 games, so he’s in elite form at the moment.
Rookie phenom Juan Soto has recently moved up to the second spot in the lineup for the Nats. He’s on the negative side of his splits today vs. Matz, but Soto has posted an elite .449 wOBA and .318 ISO against left-handers over the past 12 months.
Brian Dozier leads all batters with 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings and could be an interesting target today against Snell. Dozier has crushed lefties over the past 12 months, owning a .407 wOBA and .277 ISO, and he’s posted an elite Statcast line over his past 15 games. His DraftKings salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, which is the top mark on the slate.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports
