Monday brings us a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05pm ET. Let’s jump in.
Pitchers
Giants righty Jeff Samardzija faces a Padres team currently implied for 3.2 runs, a mark 0.5 lower than any other team’s. Further, the Giants are massive -225 moneyline Vegas favorites and Samardzija is pitching at home, giving him a perfect 100 Park Factor. He’s coming off a dominating Coors Field performance, but his advanced stats are troubling: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 211 feet, an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 41 percent in his last two starts. Still, he is very cheap ($8,100 on FanDuel with a 98 percent Bargain Rating) and has a divine matchup at home. He’ll be chalky.
Carlos Carrasco is on the road (Park Factor of 41) facing a White Sox team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Like Samardzija, Carrasco has seen solid results lately but his recent advanced stats suggest potential problems under the hood. He has allowed a batted-ball distance of 210 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 40 percent. He does boast the second-highest K Prediction of the slate (7.2), but it comes at a cost: He’s the most expensive pitcher both on DK ($12,200) and FD ($10,700). He should be more of a tournament play in a normal slate because of the matchup and high price point, but given the lack of options (other than Samardzija), he could become chalky.
Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks has been outstanding:
He’s on the road tonight (Park Factor of 81) facing the rival Cardinals, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs. There seems to be a theme so far . . . his advanced stats aren’t great lately: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 233 feet, an exit velocity of 92 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 38 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 38 percent. His K Prediction of 7.0 is the third-best on the slate. His risky advanced stats suggests he’s better for GPPs, but he will be highly-owned given his stellar results lately — the many green bars in the graphic above.
Finally, a pitcher with excellent recent advanced stats. Boston lefty David Price has awesome marks: He’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 191 feet, an exit velocity of 86 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 18 percent. His results match:
However, today he has a tough matchup facing the Orioles, who are currently implied for 4.0 runs and whose projected lineups own a .336 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA). Price is a heavy favorite (-196) and boasts a 6.9 K Prediction, which is the fifth-best mark in the slate. This matchup isn’t ideal for cash games, but Price is great tournament target given his recent form.
Pirates righty Gerrit Cole will return from the Disabled List (after dealing with elbow inflammation) to face a Phillies team currently implied for 3.8 runs. Cole has really struggled this season and dealt with multiple injury issues since offseason training in January.
It’s almost impossible to know what you’ll get out of Cole today despite the solid matchup: Philly’s projected lineup owns a low .295 team wOBA. Cole is a bit more intriguing at DK, where he’s $7,700, as opposed to FanDuel, where he’s $9,000. Still, there’s a lot of risk here and he should be used solely in guaranteed prize pools.
Francisco Liriano faces a Rays team currently implied for 4.0 runs. His advanced stats are pretty awful — he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 245 feet, a line-drive rate of 50 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 50 percent in his last two games — but those were in small-sample relief outings. They aren’t encouraging, but perhaps they’re not as dire as they look. Liriano boasts the highest K Prediction of the day at 7.3 and faces a Rays team that whiffs at a rate of .275 times per at-bat. He’s a much better value at FanDuel, where he is $7,200 and owns an 87 percent Bargain Rating. But like many of the recent guys we’ve mentioned, he’s too risk to play in cash.
The last two guys I’ll mention are Detroit’s Daniel Norris and Colorado’s Tyler Anderson. They sit at $6,600 and $6,500 on FD. Norris’ advanced stats are bad lately — he’s allowed a batted-ball distance of 232 feet, an exit velocity of 91 MPH, and a fly-ball rate of 48 percent in his last two starts — but he has better Vegas data: His opponent (Minnesota) is currently implied to score 4.2 runs. Anderson, on the other hand, has been really good (per his Plus/Minus) . . .
. . . despite pitching often at Coors Field, and he owns better recent advanced stats. However, he’s in another tough park tonight at Chase Field, and he’s opposing a Diamondbacks team currently implied for 4.6 runs. They’re risky but worth a couple GPP darts.
Stacks
There isn’t a Coors Field game today, which means we won’t have a Rockies team as the top DraftKings five-man stack. Oh wait . . .
The Rockies are at Chase Field tonight — another notorious hitter’s park — and are implied to score 4.9 runs currently. They face Arizona’s Shelby Miller, who owns the fourth-worst WHIP (1.740) in the slate.
On FanDuel, the highest-rated four-man stack belongs to a 1-2-4-5 stack of the Red Sox:
This stack obviously leaves out projected No. 3 hitter, David Ortiz, who is on the wrong side of his splits today against lefty Wade Miley. The Red Sox are currently implied for a slate-high 5.7 runs.
Batters
Shortstop Corey Seager is projected to bat second for a Dodgers team currently implied for 4.8 runs. He’s at Yankee Stadium today, giving him an 81 Park Factor as a lefty batter. He’s on the correct side of his splits: He has a .420 wOBA, .247 Isolated Power (ISO), and .595 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers in the last year. He’s also been crushing the ball lately, as highlighted by his 91 MPH exit velocity and 50 percent hard-hit rate.
George Springer is projected to bat leadoff for an Astros team currently implied for 4.9 runs. He’s been valuable there this season:
He doesn’t have extreme splits either way but hits lefties very well: He has a .400 wOBA, .251 ISO, and .537 slugging percentage in the last year. He has also been hitting the ball well: He boasts an average batted-ball distance of 218 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last 12 games.
Jonathan Villar is on the wrong side of his splits today — he has a .349 wOBA, .150 ISO, and .439 slugging in the last year versus righties — but he has been absolutely destroying the ball lately. In his last 11 games, he has averaged a batted-ball distance of 224 feet, an exit velocity of 96 MPH, and a hard-hit rate of 58 percent. He boasts a slate-high SB/G mark of .365 and is projected to bat leadoff for a Brewers team currently implied for 4.4 runs.
On our Lineups page, Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield is currently projected as the leadoff hitter for a Royals team implied for 4.8 runs. He has decent-enough splits: He has a .377 wOBA, .127 ISO, and .491 slugging percentage against lefties. His recent advanced stats are excellent: He has a 247-foot batted-ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, and 42 percent hard-hit rate in his last six games. Oh yeah, and he’s only $2,900 on FanDuel.
Edwin Encarnacion continues the trend of batters who have been hitting really well recently: He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 238 feet, an exit velocity of 93 MPH, a fly-ball rate of 51 percent, and a hard-hit rate of 45 percent in his last 11 games. He’s facing Rays righty Jake Odorizzi, who got crushed last start and is allowing a 92 MPH exit velocity and 59 percent hard-hit rate in his last two starts. Edwin has a .387 wOBA, .284 ISO, and .566 slugging percentage versus righties in the last year. The Blue Jays are currently implied for 5.2 runs.
Good luck today!
