No day games — just a beautiful, 15-game main slate at 7:05 PM ET.
Pitchers
Rangers lefty Cole Hamels has scored exactly 30 FanDuel points in each of his last three games. If you’re a BvP truther who loves three-game samples, it’s highly likely that Hamels will have exactly 30 FD points tonight.
Hamels faces a Tampa Bay team currently implied for 3.5 runs. He gets them on the road, which gives him a 91 Park Factor. His 6.8 K Prediction isn’t anything to write home about — Jose Fernandez had an 11.0 K Prediction yesterday, for reference — but it’s actually decent on this slate: He has the third-highest mark today behind Bud Norris and Julio Teheran. Hamels is very expensive on DraftKings ($11,100) but much more affordable at FanDuel ($9,700). He does have concerning advanced stats recently — a 40 percent hard-hit rate allowed in his last two games, for example — but that’s perhaps a bit less concerning versus a Rays team with a projected lineup that has a low .289 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA).
Zack Greinke was solid in his first start since returning from the Disabled List, scoring 39 FD points against the Mets, but he was also awful in his second start against the Red Sox, scoring –13 points in just 1.2 innings pitched. Today he gets a much easier matchup against the Padres, who are currently implied for 3.5 runs. In terms of recent advanced stats, he is in similar territory as Hamels: He has allowed a 44 percent hard-hit rate in his last two games. Again, the matchup is good but there’s definitely risk with both of these guys due to their recent form.
Unfortunately, several of the top options tonight are guys coming off of terrible outings. Johnny Cueto is another example: He has given up eight earned runs combined in his last two starts. However, his advanced stats during that time period are a bit better and suggest that he’s due for some progression: He has allowed a hard-hit rate of 28 percent in those two games. He faces the Mets, who are currently implied for 3.3 runs, although they did ruin Madison Bumgarner’s outing last night. Cueto is pitching at home, where he has a 100 Park Factor. Perhaps that, combined with the Mets’ low run total, will put him in cash consideration in a slate with very poor cash options.
Poor recent results is the theme for these pitchers, and next up is Pirates righty Gerrit Cole, who allowed 12 hits and five earned runs in just 4.1 innings pitched last game against the Angels. Like Cueto, however, Cole seems due for progression: He has recently allowed a batted-ball distance of 177 feet, an exit velocity of 87 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 29 percent. In this pitching slate, those are golden numbers. He faces a Marlins team currently implied for 3.2 runs, the lowest mark in the slate. He won’t whiff a ton of guys — he has a K Prediction of 4.9 — but he might be the best cash-game option, considering the choices today.
Ah, finally a guy who has performed well recently: Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka. After two awful games, he has scored 45 and 51 FD points in his last two outings. His advanced stats (29 percent hard-hit rate) are OK during that span. He gets the Angels, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs. He’s pitching in LA, which means that he has a solid 88 Park Factor. Like Cole, he’s unlikely to get a ton of strikeouts — he has a K Prediction of 5.1 — but today is all about picking the least worst option in a slate of bad options. Tanaka isn’t the worst.
Dipping down in price point sits Mariners lefty Wade LeBlanc, who is coming off a nice 42 FD-point outing against the Athletics on Sunday. He’s very cheap today at $7,100 on DraftKings and $6,400 on FanDuel. Basically, he’s just too cheap relative to his matchup: He’s facing the Brewers, who are currently implied for 3.7 runs and own the second-highest SO/AB rate on the slate at .287. A basic trend shows that players at his price point on FD facing a team with an implied run total of 3.7 runs or fewer have historically done well — and that’s not considering his K upside against the Brewers:
Although Dodgers righty Bud Norris is much too expensive on FanDuel at $7,300, he’s incredibly cheap at DraftKings at $5,700. He is making his first start since coming off the 15-day DL, and he’s facing a Reds team currently implied for 4.2 runs. That’s a fairly high number, but because of the Dodgers’ potent offense, he’s actually a sizable -163 moneyline favorite. He boasts the slate’s highest K Prediction at 7.2. Because of the injury concern, he’s definitely risky, but at only $5,700 he’s definitely worth the risk, especially because of the strikeout upside. He’s an elite second SP option at DK who will allow you to afford the high-priced bats in the slate.
Speaking of . . .
Stacks
The highest-rated five-man DraftKings stack in the Bales Model currently belongs to a 1-3-4-5-7 stack of the Athletics:
That is especially intriguing considering that the Cubs and Rockies are playing at Coors Field today. Oakland is currently implied for 4.7 runs — the 10th-highest mark in the slate — which means that they could make for a nice contrarian GPP option.
On FanDuel, the top-rated four-man stack belongs to a 1-2-3-4 straight stack of the White Sox:
Another non-Coors stack!
I think that these two stacks speak to how much FanDuel and DraftKings priced up the Coors game today: On DK, for example, the Cubs have a Team Value Rating of 61 and the Rockies have a TVR of 58 currently. The top-four batters for the Cubs cost $5,000, $5,600, $5,400, and $5,100 — that’s really expensive. The sites were aggressive in their Coors pricing today, which will definitely have a huge effect on the slate.
Batters
The days of recommending Cardinals outfielder Stephen Piscotty finally paid off: He has posted at least 12 FD points in four of his last five games. Today he faces Phillies lefty Adam Morgan, who holds a poor 1.505 WHIP and 1.960 HR/9 over the last year. Piscotty has great splits versus lefties: He has a .401 wOBA, .245 Isolated Power (ISO), and .537 slugging percentage. He also boasts a hard-hit rate of 46 percent in his last 12 games. He is projected to bat second for a Cards team currently implied for 5.2 runs.
Lefties typically do very well at Camden Yards — as shown by their 78 Park Factor — and Orioles lefty Chris Davis isn’t a bad hitter. Against RHP in the last year, he has a .388 wOBA, .297 ISO, and .541 slugging percentage. Crush had two HRs just last night as the Orioles posted 13 runs. He has a 97 MPH exit velocity and 48 percent hard-hit rate in his last 10 games — ridiculous marks.
He’s on the other side of this matchup and isn’t a lefty, but Astros outfielder George Springer is also in a great spot tonight. He faces lefty Wade Miley, who has allowed an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last three starts. Springer has great marks versus LHP, as shown by his .409 wOBA, .261 ISO, and .553 slugging percentage in the last year. He’s projected to bat leadoff for a Houston team currently implied for 4.8 runs.
Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner is on a heater right now: He has posted back-to-back FD games of 34.7 and 28.4 points — including four hits, two home runs, and five RBIs. He has an exit velocity of 94 MPH and a hard-hit rate of 48 percent in his last nine outings. He doesn’t have outrageous handedness splits: He’s solid against all pitchers, with a .364 wOBA, .208 ISO, and .492 slugging percentage against righties in the last year. The Dodgers have scored approximately a bazillion runs per game lately and they’re currently implied for 5.3 tonight.
Devon Travis is projected to bat leadoff for a Blue Jays team currently implied to score 4.6 runs. They could potentially go underowned tonight. He has good splits against righties — a .389 wOBA, .222 ISO, and .540 slugging percentage — and he’s facing one in Trevor Bauer, who has had some blowup games in the last couple of weeks. Travis has a batted-ball distance of 216 feet and an exit velocity of 91 MPH in his last 13 starts.
Although we didn’t mention them, all of the Coors options are great ones tonight — even though they are expensive. If they potentially go low-owned because of the high prices, that makes them incredibly interesting in GPPs.
Good luck!
