The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Picks
Aaron Nola ($10,100) Philadelphia Phillies (-139) vs. Miami Marlins
Nola is the relatively obvious top choice on Monday’s slate. He’s been impressive this year, with a 2.75 SIERA and 29% strikeout rate. Perhaps most impressive in the era of short starts, he’s averaging over six innings per appearance. While there are other starters on the slate with similar rate stats to Nola, he’s undoubtedly the best bet to pitch deep into his game.
While the Marlins aren’t an offense we like to pick on, they aren’t a shy-away spot either. They’re a roughly league-average offense by most metrics, with a 105 wRC+. They also strike out at a top-ten rate, giving Nola a ton of upside. His relatively low swinging-strike rate of 10.7% is slightly concerning, but we still have him projected for over six strikeouts on the slate.
Vegas is on Nola and the Phillies’ side for his duel with leading NL Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara ($10,200). Philadelphia is favored, with Miami holding an implied run total of 3.6. The Phillies are implied for 4.2, making Nola the better choice at near-identical price points between the two.
Nola has the best median projection in THE BAT, coming in a close third in the FantasyLabs set. The top few options are relatively close in both projection systems, so the best GPP play will likely come down to ownership projections on a fairly big slate. Nola currently ranks fourth in that category in the FantasyLabs set.
Alek Manoah ($9,800) Toronto Blue Jays (-304) vs. Baltimore Orioles
Manoah leads the FantasyLabs median projections, edging out Nola by just under two points on Monday’s slate. The case for Manoah is based on matchup, as he draws a much easier one against the Orioles. Baltimore has played reasonably well lately, moving their offensive statistics up from terrible to merely bad, but they’re still a team we want to pick on.
Manoah has good numbers in his own right as well. He has a 3.68 SIERA and 22% strikeout rate on the season. While his strikeout rate isn’t ideal for a nearly-$10K pitcher, his swinging strike rate is actually better than Nola’s. Strikeouts tend to follow swinging strikes, so there’s reason to expect his K rate stabilizes in the mid-20% range.
Like Nola, Manoah has also done an excellent job working deep into games this season. He also averages over six innings per start and has a 7-1 record in 11 outings. The winning percentage is impressive, as is the amount of times he’s lasted long enough to factor into the decision. Baltimore has the lowest team total on the slate, and Toronto is the biggest favorite. That’s a good combination for a pitcher. He is expected to be the slate’s most popular arm, though, which isn’t ideal for GPPs.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Mike Minor ($4,700) Cincinnati Reds (+130) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Minor has made just two starts this season, with fairly unimpressive results in both. His Reds are underdogs as they travel to Arizona, with the Diamondbacks implied for 4.8 runs. Minor’s numbers are ok, with a 4.48 SIERA and 21% strikeout rate in those two starts.
While none of that sounds good — because it isn’t — Minor’s extremely cheap salary keeps him in the conversation. It’s reasonable to expect him to perform slightly better after returning from injury just 10 days ago, and his second start of the year was much better than the first.
It’s also a winnable matchup with Arizona, with the Diamondbacks having offensive numbers roughly equal to Baltimore on the season. It comes down to a game-theory decision on Minor: Is the salary we save able to produce enough points elsewhere in our lineup to justify the risk and lower upside he provides? It’s not crazy to think it might be, especially with his ownership projection in the low single digits.
Minor leads the Pts/Sal projection in both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projection systems by a wide margin. He’s a risky play but could be well worth it if the expensive hitters on the slate score well.
MLB DFS GPP Picks
Rony Garcia ($5,500) Detroit Tigers (+119) vs. Chicago White Sox
While Minor is projecting better, Garcia is my preferred budget option on today’s slate. He has better Vegas data, with the White Sox implied for 0.2 fewer runs than the Diamondbacks, and the Tigers with slightly better moneyline odds. He’s also been the better pitcher, with a 2.87 SIERA and 30% strikeout rate on the season.
That’s where things get a bit tricky, though, as Garcia spent the early part of Detroit’s season in the bullpen. He’s made just three starts, and his numbers haven’t been nearly as strong in those games. He’s allowed 10 runs while striking out 16 in 14 innings of work.
However, those starts came against the Twins twice and the Yankees once. Those are both top-five offenses in both wOBA and wRC+. The White Sox are anything but, ranking 27th and 24th in the league in those categories. If Garcia can continue to strike out more than one batter per inning while keeping the runs down, he could easily outperform his salary.
While Minor is expected to garner minimal ownership, projections are even lower on Garcia. He’s a strong GPP pivot from Minor and potentially even a cash game play thanks to his superior Vegas data.
MLB DFS Hitters
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating belongs to the Houston Astros:
- Jose Altuve (1) ($5,400)
- Michael Brantley (2) ($4,100)
- Alex Bregman (3) ($4,800)
- Yordan Alvarez (4) ($5,700)
- Yulieki Gurriel (5) ($2,900)
Getting the Astros’ top five hitters for under $23,000 feels like a steal on Monday’s slate. They have the third-highest total on the slate at 5.1 runs as they take on the Rangers in Arlington. This game has the best hitting weather on the slate, with a 90 Weather Rating. It’s also a solid hitter’s park, particularly for left-handed bats.
The real appeal is the matchup, though. The Rangers are starting lefty Taylor Hearn ($7,300), who has a 5.40 ERA on the season. He’s been a bit unlucky with a .338 BABIP against and a 4.60 SIERA, but he’s still one of the more hittable pitchers on the slate.
The Astros’ right-handed bats are particularly appealing, most notably Bregman. The third baseman has hit righties for a .264 average in his career but hits .305 against southpaws. Altuve and Gurriel are both on the right side of their platoon splits as well.
Lefties Brantley and Alvarez are the more interesting choices. Brantley has performed significantly worse against lefties, while Alvarez has been better but still sees a drop-off. If rostering this stack, I’ll probably omit Brantley and go with the other four hitters, or possibly replace him with a down-lineup Astro. Chas McCormick ($2,800) and Jeremy Pena ($4,300) both have good splits against lefties, though in fairly limited sample sizes.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections in our Player Models.
The top DraftKings stack from THE BAT when generated by Ceiling belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The Braves’ red-hot June continues, as they’re averaging 6.7 runs this month. Today’s matchup with the Nationals and starter Josiah Gray ($8,900) should keep that success coming, with the Braves implied for 5.3 runs. That’s the second-highest mark on the slate and the best of any road team.
Gray has been mediocre this season, with ERA and SIERA marks both in the low fours. His .260 BABIP against is somewhat low, so if anything, his box scores have been slightly better than his actual performance. He’s allowed fly balls on more than half of his balls in play, an extremely high mark. That’s not just small sample size variation either; he had similar numbers last season.
That’s a good sign for Atlanta’s power bats. Gray is a strikeout and flyball pitcher, which leads to some blowup games. He’s had three multi-homerun games in just seven starts this season, and he’s also allowed at least six runs twice. That’s precisely the type of pitcher we want to target in GPPs, making the Braves a strong choice.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
Byron Buxton OF ($4,900 DraftKings; $4,300 FanDuel) Minnesota Twins at Seattle Mariners (Chris Flexen)
After banging the drum about Buxton regression incoming for a few weeks, it finally struck in a big way recently. Buxton has seven hits — five of them homers — in five games over the last week and finally seems to have broken out of his ridiculously unlucky slump.
Look for that to continue against Flexen today. Flexen has a 4.96 SIERA on the season, with alarming batted ball data. His .290 BABIP against this season is the best of his career, which should only get worse for him. His 45% flyball rate is another bad sign.
The Twins, in general, are a sneaky stack tonight, with Carlos Correa ($4,400 DraftKings; $3,900 FanDuel) and catcher Gary Sanchez ($4,400 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) both interesting options. Buxton is the top choice, though, and he trails only Acuna in median and ceiling projections in THE BAT among all hitters.
Corey Seager SS ($5,200 DraftKings; $3,300 FanDuel) Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros (Cristian Javier)
I won’t be getting much Correa — especially on FanDuel — tonight, primarily because of Seager. He’s an absolute steal on FanDuel, and still a solid DraftKings option for tournaments. As mentioned in the Astros stack breakdown, this game has near-ideal hitting weather and a stronger Park Factor for left-handed hitting.
Both of those benefit Seager, as does the pitching matchup. It’s a small sample size, but Javier ($9,600) has struggled against lefties. They have a .335 wOBA against him, compared to just .241 for right-handed hitters. Javier is another power arm who allows a lot of fly balls; he has a 30% strikeout rate but a 56% fly ball ratio. That’s a problem against Seager — he has 12 homers on the year — and the ball should carry well in the Texas heat tonight.
Jordan Luplow OF ($3,500 Draftkings; $2,500 FanDuel) Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds (Mike Minor)
Both Minor and the hitters against him are very cheap today, so odds are there’s value on at least one side of that coin. Luplow might be the best opportunity to exploit that as the leadoff hitter for Arizona. Getting the leadoff hitter on a team with a 4.8-run total at his price tags is always a good deal, but there’s more to like about Luplow.
He has a career .888 OPS against lefties, more than 200 points higher than his mark against right-handed pitching. Most of that is due to a .534 slugging percentage. He has seven home runs (in 99 plate appearances) on the season despite hitting just .165. He’s a boom-or-bust option tonight, but he has more boom potential than usual in this spot.
