The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Now, let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s main slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Oscar Gonzalez ($2,000): Outfielder, Cleveland Guardians
Oscar Gonzalez has helped the Guardians to a 4-2 record since being called up. Gonzalez is batting .360, and he has multiple hits in four of six contests. He has recorded at least one hit in all but one game, which is all you can ask for from a player priced at the bare minimum on DraftKings.
Gonzalez will face Bruce Zimmermann on Friday, who has gotten shelled in his last three starts. Over that time, he is allowing five earned runs and seven hits per game. Zimmermann has allowed 12 home runs over his previous four starts, with nine coming in his last two games. Gonzalez averaged a .227 ISO in Triple-A and now has an excellent chance for his first long ball. He is a fantastic salary saver on a slate with a lot to spend up for.
MLB DFS FanDuel Bargain Value
Matt Carpenter ($2,500): First Baseman/Third Baseman, New York Yankees
The New York Yankees are an important team on Friday’s slate. Matt Carpenter is projected to bat leadoff for the Bronx Bombers. He has hit a home run in back-to-back starts and in three of his five games with the Yankees. Finding a new home, especially for a veteran like Carpenter, may be all he needed to get his bat back on track.
Granted, home runs are all that Carpenter has hit in those five games. However, he is still a good value option given his dual eligibility as the Yankees’ expected leadoff hitter. Carpenter also has the platoon advantage, where he has excelled for most of his career. The 36-year-old can deliver some upside against right-handed pitchers. More on the matchup soon.
MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Gerrit Cole ($10,900 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
It sure is tough to get away from Gerrit Cole in this matchup against the Tigers. He has by far the highest ceiling of any pitcher and has been incredibly consistent over his last seven games. During that time, Cole is averaging 27.1 DraftKings points and 100.9 pitches per game. Cole has at least a quality start in each game while recording nine or more strikeouts in five of seven outings. Don’t get cute with a Cole fade.
Not only is Cole playing fantastic, but the Yankees lead the slate with ridiculous -360 moneyline odds. The Tigers are implied for a slate-low 2.7 runs as they have only scored 146 runs this season, which is by far the lowest in the league. They also have the lowest team wOBA on the slate. Cole is the only pitcher on the slate projected to throw over 100 pitches, and he also has a slate-high 8.91 strikeout prediction.
Cole will be the highest owned player on the slate. Fade at your own risk.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($5,700 DraftKings, $4,400 FanDuel) vs. Detroit Tigers
Four Braves batters are popping at the top of our projections, but we’ll get to them later. Instead, sticking with the Yankees theme, Aaron Judge is the highest ceiling batter among the non-Braves players. Judge continues to lead the league in home runs, ISO, slugging percentage, and wRC+. He leads the Yankees in all major statistics as he is off to a great start to the season, and the Braves could keep his ownership in check.
Judge gets a matchup against Tigers right-hander Elvin Rodriguez, who was working on his best start of the season his last time out before being pulled with lower-body cramping at 53 pitches. However, Rodriguez has still struggled to a 1.54 HR/9, a 6.17 ERA, and a 42.4% hard-hit rate in his rookie season. The Tigers actually have the second-best bullpen in terms of ERA, so let’s hope that Rodriguez stays out there as long as possible.
Top Stacking Pick from THE BAT X
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
The top five-man DraftKings stack from THE BAT using median projections in our stacking tool comes from the Atlanta Braves. When you load them into our Lineup Builder, you’ll have the option to hand-build the rest of your team or optimize the rest of it.
The road team in a Coors Field game will always be an option, and the Braves draw that designation on Friday.
After scoring 13 runs in Coors Field last night, the Braves 6.4 implied run total is not that surprising. Despite being two games below .500, the Braves rank tied for second in ISO and fourth in home runs as a team. They have plenty of pop, which provides an incredible amount of upside.
The highest projected batter on the slate via THE BAT and our in-house projections is Ronald Acuna Jr. He has a scorching stretch at the start of May and is trending in the right direction once again. Acuna has a double in back-to-back games but only has two home runs on the season.
Projected No. 2 hitter Dansby Swanson leads the Braves in average this season but has a career-high 29.3% strikeout rate. Swanson has taken a slight step back this year, but he is tied with Acuna Jr. with a team-leading nine steals.
Marcell Ozuna matches the Braves’ theme of having a bit of a down season, but his upside is still high in this spot. Ozuna is the cheapest player in this stack, but he still has 10 homers on the year. If you’re looking to go even cheaper in the outfield, Adam Duvall ($2,500) makes sense as the No. 8 hitter.
Austin Riley is the hottest Braves batter, leading the team in home runs, hits, and RBI. Riley has a positive DraftKings Plus/Minus in five-straight games as he is batting .455 with three doubles, three home runs, and eight RBI. During that time, Riley is averaging 17.8 DraftKings points per game.
Matt Olson is the only Braves batter in this stack with the platoon advantage. He has a .234 ISO and a .388 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this season. Olson can be very boom or bust, but this is a great spot to target his upside. He should feast in this matchup and is in a great lineup spot to drive in runs.
The Rockies will send out right-hander Chad Kuhl who has had a fairly good season thus far. However, Coors Field can be very unkind to pitchers, and Kuhl gave up five earned runs on eight hits in three innings of work in his last home start. In his first season with the Rockies, Kuhl has yet to experience the true power of Coors Field. The balls will start flying as the weather heats up, giving Kuhl an arduous task against a potent Braves lineup.
