The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Justyn-Henry Malloy ($2,500): Outfielder, Detroit Tigers
A 24-year-old Tigers rookie, Justyn-Henry Malloy leads the bargain options on today’s short slate with a +2.57 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games. He has two home runs over his last five games.
The outfielder is batting .195/.292/.377 in 27 games with four home runs and eight RBI. He is primarily used against right-handers and needs to find a way to bring his 36.0 K% down for more consistency. He has a 30.4 sweet spot % and .297 wOBA on the season.
The Tigers face right-hander Gavin Williams today in his second start of the season. He allowed five runs in four innings on July 3 for a 0-1 record and 11.25 ERA.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Sale ($10,500) at Arizona Diamondbacks
With by far the highest salary on today’s small slate, Chris Sale packs the biggest potential fantasy punch. The Braves lefty is having an excellent 2024 season at 11-3 with a 2.71 ERA.
In his first season with the Braves, Sale leads the National League in wins and WHIP. He has a 32.7 K% with an impressive .255 xwOBA and 30.4 hard hit %. He has two straight 30+ DraftKings point games.
Using Plate IQ, the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup has a .147 ISO and .331 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. Arizona has a low run projection with moderate park ratings on each side of the plate.
Hitter
Elly De La Cruz ($6,300) vs. Colorado Rockies
The talented Reds youngster is still making waves in his second big league season as he paces the National League with 43 stolen bases through 90 games played. If Elly De La Cruz can limit his league-leading strikeout totals, he could be a fantasy superstar.
De La Cruz is batting .247/.339/.464 on the season with 15 home runs and 39 RBI. He has a .349 wOBA with a 31.4 K% and 10.9 BB%. He has six 20+ DraftKings point results in his last 20 games to go with five goose eggs.
The Reds have a strong matchup against Ryan Feltner in Cincinnati. The Rockies right-hander is 1-7 with a 5.60 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Andrew Abbott ($8,200) vs. Colorado Rockies
With few great fantasy options on the main slate, Andrew Abbott is a solid choice in the salary tier below Chris Sale. Abbott is 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 17 starts.
The former Virginia Cavalier has allowed the most home runs (16) in the National League but sits 11th in opponent batting average (.218). He has been slightly worse at home, with a 3.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP.
The strong Rockies projections may keep other fantasy owners away from Abbott today. Colorado has a high home run projection along with seven high wOBA and six high ISO hitters in their projected lineup. With few choices on the short slate, Abbott is an interesting high-variable option.
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MLB DFS Hitters
Jonathan India ($4,100) vs. Colorado Rockies
Cincinnati has the highest implied run total on the slate today against the Rockies, even with the game on the banks of the Ohio River instead of Coors Field. Jonathan India is the highest projected Reds hitter with a .509 wOBA over the last month.
India is batting .273/,375/.408 with six home runs and 35 RBI on the season. He has a season-long .349 wOBA and 41.5 sweet spot %. He consistently puts the ball in play with a low 19.9 K% and adds to his fantasy floor with a 12.3 BB%.
Ryan Feltner takes the mound for the Rockies with a 1-7 record and a 5.60 ERA.
Jarred Kelenic ($4,000) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Braves outfielder is having a great first season in Atlanta with career highs across the stat board. Jarred Kelenic has a +2.26 average Plus/Minus over the last 10 games.
Kelenic is batting .272/.317/.455 with 10 home runs and 29 RBI. He has a .438 xSLG and 45.0 hard hit %. He posted a 25-point DraftKings game yesterday with a home run and three RBI against the Phillies.
The Braves start an early-week series in Arizona tonight against Yilber Diaz, who is making his first big league start. The 23-year-old is 1-3 with a 3.27 ERA through four minor league starts this season.
