The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Lawrence Butler ($2,300): Outfielder, Oakland Athletics
Near the salary floor is a lottery ticket option in Lawrence Butler. He comes off a 20-point DraftKings game yesterday with a home run and three RBI.
The 23-year-old Oakland outfielder is batting .188/.266/.297 with three home runs and 11 RBI. He has a 45.1 hard hit % and .370 xSLG. All of his home runs and RBI have come against right-handed pitching.
He faces right-hander Davis Daniel of the Angels tonight, who is making his second start of the season and fifth of his big league career. Through his first four starts, Davie is 2-1 with a 1.33 ERA and 0.98 WHIP.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Chris Sale ($10,200) vs. San Francisco Giants
In his first season with the Braves, Chris Sale is on pace for the lowest WHIP of his career. He leads the National League in wins with a 10-3 record and touts a 2.79 ERA and 0.92 WHIP.
Even better for fantasy owners, Sale’s strikeout rate of 32.3% is his best since 2019, and he’s lowered his walk rate to 4.7%. He allows an impressive .259 xwOBA and .208 xBA.
Using PlateIQ, the projected Giants lineup has a .179 ISO and .384 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have a moderate park rating from both sides of the plate but an elevated home run projection.
Hitter
Aaron Judge ($6,500) vs. Cincinnati Reds
It’s hard to avoid putting Aaron Judge in the model picks with his current insane production at the plate. Judge continues to rake with a +4.46 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and +4.30 over the past month.
Judge has 10 hits over his last four games with two home runs and six RBI. On the season, he is swatting .321/.440/.718 with a league-leading 32 home runs and 83 RBI. He leads the American League in batting average, OBP, and SLG.
The Yankees take on Andrew Abbott with a 7-6 record and a 3.41 ERA. The lefty has a 1.20 WHIP and .224 xBA on the season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Zack Wheeler ($9,800) at Chicago Cubs
Zack Wheeler continues to impress in 2024 with a 9-4 record and 2.73 ERA. His 0.98 WHIP is fourth in the National League, and he lands second in opposing batting average at .193.
His strikeout totals have dimmed a bit this season, with just one game above six punch-outs since the start of June, but his consistency boosts his floor. Wheeler has struggled a bit on the road with a 3-2 record and a 4.35 ERA.
The Cubs have five batters with higher than 25% strikeout rates and a low run projection tonight. They have a .147 ISO and .303 wOBA against right-handers this season.
Now available: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Bryce Turang ($5,500) at Colorado Rockies
Milwaukee earns the highest implied run total on the slate with their visit to Colorado. Second baseman Bryce Turang is the highest-rated Brewers hitter with a +2.31 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games.
Turang is batting .287/.351/.412 on the season with six home runs and 38 RBI. He excels on the base paths with 28 stolen bags. He has dropped his K% down to 17.2% this season and increased his xSLG to .354.
The Brewers’ high run projection comes against right-hander Dakota Hudson and his 2-11 record. Hudson has a 5.84 ERA and 1.62 WHIP this season with a .280 xBA.
Jose Altuve ($5,200) at Toronto Blue Jays
Outside of the matchup in Colorado, the veteran Jose Altuve ranks high in the main slate projections. The Astros leadoff man is second in the American League with 106 hits and ninth with 51 runs.
Overall, Altuve is batting .308/.357/.471 with 13 home runs and 38 RBI. His June numbers were even better at .333/.376/.510. He has a +4.28 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and six double-digit DraftKings results in that span.
The Astros face Yusei Kikuchi tonight in Toronto. The lefty is 4-8 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.31 WHIP in 17 starts this season.
