The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Austin Martin ($2,400): Outfielder, Minnesota Twins
The power numbers are not eye popping for the 25-year-old rookie outfielder, but Austin Martin has shown some fantasy potential even without leaving the ballpark. Yesterday, Martin totaled 22 DraftKings points on the back of multiple RBI, walks, and a stolen base.
Martin is batting .226/.294/.371 on the season with a single home run and six RBI in 68 plate appearances. He has a +3.16 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and is a high bargain value on the main slate according to the model.
The Twins take on left-hander Garrett Crochet in Chicago tonight. Crochet is 1-4 with a 6.37 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season. Take a shot on Martin as a lottery ticket flyer with a decent floor.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Joe Ryan ($10,400) at Chicago White Sox
The model has high expectations for Joe Ryan against the White Sox today. He has by far the highest ceiling and projection on the main slate.
Ryan is 1-1 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in five starts this season. He has a strong 32.7 K% and 3.4% walk rate to go with an impressive .181 xBA and .243 xwOBA. He has lasted at least 5.1 innings and notched at least five strikeouts in each of his starts.
Using PlateIQ, the White Sox have struggled mightily against right-handed pitching this season, with a .102 ISO and .278 wOBA in their projected lineup. The bottom third of their order all have strikeout rates above 33.3% this season. Ryan is a solid bet to put up fantasy points tonight.
Hitter
Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Expectations are incredibly high for Shohei Ohtani after making the cross-town switch to the Dodgers. So far in 2024, he has more than lived up to the hype despite a myriad of off-field controversy.
Ohtani is batting an impressive .336/.399/.639 on the season with seven home runs and 18 RBI. He’s added 14 doubles and five stolen bases to the stat line. Looking at advanced numbers, Ohtani is lighting it up with a .369 xBA and .491 xwOBA.
The Dodgers face 26-year-old left-hander Tommy Henry tonight in Arizona. Henry is 1-1 with a 5.55 ERA in five starts and has allowed a home run in all but one of his starts. Ohtani is worth the high price tag, especially with other high-end batters struggling out of the gates this season.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Max Fried ($8,700) at Seattle Mariners
Max Fried is off to a 2-0 start for the Braves, but he’s received some run support from their explosive offense to get him there. Through five starts, Fried has a 4.97 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
The strikeouts have come down significantly in 2024 from his career marks. He managed a 25.7 K% in 2023, just above league average, and sits at a disappointing 16.5 K% so far this season. If he can produce some more swings and misses, he could be an excellent fantasy option at the price.
The model likes him to bring that strikeout rate up today in Seattle. The Mariners have a .166 ISO and .281 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. They have four batters in their projected lineup with strikeout rates above 30%.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitter
Mookie Betts ($6,600) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Expect the Dodgers to be a popular lineup stack again today as they boast one of the highest implied run totals on today’s main state. Mookie Betts just barely ousts teammate Shohei Ohtani in the salary chart by $100, but both are excellent high-end plays.
Betts has a +2.23 Plus/Minus over his last 10 games and a +2.15 Plus/Minus over the last month. He is among league leaders in nearly every hitting category, with a .387/.482/.655 batting line combined with six home runs and 23 RBI. He adds fantasy scoring versatility from his legs, with eight stolen bases and two triples thus far in 2024.
The Dodgers will certainly be popular targets in fantasy lineups against Tommy Henry and the Diamondbacks. Henry has allowed five runs in two starts already this season. The model likes the chances for number three tonight.
Kyle Schwarber ($5,500) at Los Angeles Angels
Maybe the biggest boom-or-bust proposal in the league for fantasy owners, Kyle Schwarber has continued that repertoire so far in 2024. Over his last 15 games, Schwarber has four 18+ DraftKings point performances. Each of the 11 other games have garnered less than double-digit points.
Overall, Schwarber is batting .200/.316/.391 on the season with seven home runs. His RBI numbers have slipped a bit, with just 14 through 29 games, but his floor is lifted slightly with 21 runs scored and 20 walks.
The all-or-nothing fantasy proposal is bolstered by his high 33.1 K%. He’ll try to make contact tonight against right-hander Griffin Canning of the Angels. Canning is 1-3 with a 7.50 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the season. This could certainly be a game in the boom column for Schwarber in a good matchup.
