The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Sunday features a 10-game slate starting at 1:35 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Chris Sale ($8,800) Atlanta Braves (-135) at Philadelphia Phillies
There’s a few different “solid” plays at or near the top of the salary range Sunday, but there’s no truly obvious standout. Every team is implied for at least 3.8 runs Sunday, and no pitchers are projected for seven or more strikeouts. Therefore, it’s probably not ideal to pay all the way up to the $9,000 range for a starting pitcher. Which is what makes Sale my top choice on Sunday’s slate.
He’s fairly reasonably priced at $8,800, especially considering the bounceback year he had in 2023. After making just 11 appearances from 2020-2022, Sale was back to near-vintage form last season with a strikeout rate of almost 30% and ERA indicators in the mid-threes.
Of course, the Phillies aren’t typically a lineup we go out of our way to roster pitchers against. However, doing so with a southpaw arm is a bit more appealing. Both of the (arguably) best hitters in Philly bat lefty, and the lineup as a whole has better numbers against righties.
Sale has the best Pts/Sal projection of any pitcher over $7,200 on Sunday, making him a strong SP1 for cash games. While I’ll mix and match among the top options for tournaments, he’ll certainly be in my player pool there as well.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Nick Martinez ($6,800) Cincinnati Reds (-180) vs. Washington Nationals
Martinez profiles as a solid salary-saver Sunday, as he takes on a bad Nationals offense. Martinez split time between the rotation and bullpen last year, but he was solid as a starter. He posted a 2.32 ERA across nine starting appearances, though he averaged just under five innings per appearance.
He probably won’t miss enough bats to provide a huge score Sunday, with middling numbers in both strikeout rate and swinging strike rate. However, given the context of Sunday’s slate — with no huge upside pitchers to be found — that’s probably okay even in GPPs. Especially against the Nationals, who profile as one of the worst offenses in baseball this season.
He’s tied for the lead in Pts/Sal projection on the slate, and he’s my preferred option when trying to save salary for hitters. That’s going to be my strategy Sunday, given all the elevated team totals across the board.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Jack Flaherty ($8,900) Detroit Tigers (-151) at Chicago White Sox
Flaherty is a tough pitcher to project this season. At his peak, he was a true ace for his former team, the Cardinals. From 2018 through 2021, he posted four straight seasons with upper-20% strikeout rates and a SIERA below 4.00. He’s struggled since, with ERA indicators around 5.00 each of the last two seasons.
Still just 28, the Tigers took a flier on him in the offseason hoping he can regain his Cy Young-candidate form. He had a great spring training, with a 37.1% strikeout rate and xFIP under 3.00. Reports from Detroit are promising about his improved velocity thanks to some mechanical tweaks.
Vegas is also optimistic about his chances this season, or at least Sunday. The White Sox have the lowest implied total on the slate at just 3.7, and his strikeout prop is set at a very solid 6.5. That’s enough for me to take a swing at Flaherty for GPPs, since he has a better matchup and lower projected ownership than Sale.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
It’s ben a fun start for the big red machine, with 14 runs across their first two regular-season contests. That’s probably not a sustainable pace for the entire season, but they’re still playing the Nationals on Sunday.
This time, Washington is rolling out Jake Irvin ($7,100), a second-year player who had a 4.61 ERA through 24 starts last season. While that’s not a terrible number, underlying metrics suggest he was actually worse than that. All of his ERA indicators were over 5.00 last year.
That explains the Reds’ slate-leading, 5.8-run implied total. Their top-five hitters are far too cheap given that number, with an average salary of just over $4,300. They’ll be fairly chalky, but they are clearly the best on-paper team to stack Sunday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Austin Riley 3B ($5,600) Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez)
The ridiculously stacked Braves lineup is taking on lefty Ranger Suarez of the Phillies on Sunday. While Atlanta is scary in any matchup, they’re even tougher against southpaws. Last season, they posted a 132 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
We obviously want some exposure to this lineup, so I used PlateIQ to identify the best one-off options. Riley immediately stood out with his excellent platoon splits:
You can’t really go wrong with any of the Braves hitters Sunday, but Riley (along with Marcell Ozuna ($4,600) stands out in a big way.
Edouard Julien 2B ($3,300) Minnesota Twins (-125) at Kansas City Royals (Brady Singer)
Julien was a pleasant surprise as a rookie in 2023, belting 16 homers in 109 games for a wRC+ of 136. Now he draws leadoff duties in the Twins lineup, a valuable position considering their strong 4.8-run implied total Sunday.
He’s far too cheap considering his production and spot in the lineup. That’s important Sunday, especially if trying to build lineups around the Reds’ and Braves’ powerful offenses. Or build lineups that include two of the more expensive pitchers on the slate.
