The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
This Friday night, Major League Baseball fires up the weekend with a great 12-game mega slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. Six divisional matchups make up the heart of this slate, including two from the NL East and a massive matchup between the Dodgers and the new-look Padres. Coors Field is in play too, so it should be a great fantasy baseball night!
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($10,100) Minnesota Twins (-100) at Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all 24 scheduled starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections for Friday night. In the FantasyLabs projections, he has the second-highest median and ceiling projection and the third-highest floor projection.
Ryan has been very consistent this season, although he only has one win to show for it. He has gone at least six innings in five of his seven outings and has not allowed more than three runs in any outing this season. If you’re a fan of Quality Starts, he has five of those in his seven outings while posting a 3.54 ERA, 3.02 FIP, and 10.2 K/9.
Earlier this season, Ryan showed his dominant ceiling with a 12-strikeout road performance against the Tigers that earned him 31.3 DraftKings points. He has actually been sharper on the road than at Target Field, so the fact that he’s in Toronto shouldn’t scare you off the Twins’ ace.
Minnesota has gone an impressive 15-2 over its last 17 games but is still in second place in the AL Central. They head on the road to take on Toronto, and although the Blue Jays aren’t an ideal matchup, they aren’t one you have to avoid either. The Blue Jays have scored the third-fewest runs in the MLB and rank in the bottom 10 in team batting average, wOBA, and team wRC+.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Andrew Abbott ($6,700) Cincinnati Reds (+132) at San Francisco Giants
The matchup between the Reds and Giants in the late game is tied with the Twins-Jays matchup for the lowest over/under on the slate. Getting Abbott at under $7,000 is a great play that leaves you plenty of salary for stacking bats. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections and the second-highest of the options under $7,000 in THE BAT X projections.
Like Ryan, Abbott has had bad luck when it comes to securing wins. He only has one win in seven starts despite a pretty solid 3.32 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and 8.29 K/9. He has only given up more than two earned runs once all season. While he hasn’t typically pitched deep into games, his strikeout totals are trending up. He had a season-high eight strikeouts in his last start and held the mighty Orioles to two runs in five innings for 19.1 DraftKings points.
Abbott’s main issue has been giving up home runs, surrendering seven gopher balls in seven starts, but playing at pitcher-friendly Oracle Park should help. This past offseason, San Francisco overhauled its offense but still ranks in the bottom 10 of the MLB in home runs and in runs scored. If we throw out their recent series at Coors Field, the Giants have scored three runs or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games.
While he’s no lock, Abbott brings a great ceiling at this salary, poised for a pitchers’ duel with Logan Webb in the last game of the night. He ranks eighth in strikeout prediction and median projection even though he only has the 17th-highest salary.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Michael King ($7,100) San Diego Padres (+144) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
The risk factor here is obvious: King is facing the Dodgers who rank at the top of just about every offensive category. The Dodgers are heavily favored and have their own ace Tyler Glasnow on the bump. King comes with good upside of his own, though, and is a “swing for the fences” pick that could pay off.
King has the highest strikeout prediction on the slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starting pitchers in the FantasyLabs projections. He’s high risk, but his strikeout potential also makes him potentially high reward.
On Saturday, King dominated the Diamondbacks in his last start, earning 19.9 DraftKings points with six shutout innings and three strikeouts. It was a nice bounce-back outing for King, who gave up six runs or more in three of his four previous starts. His one good outing over that span, though, was an outstanding start against the Brewers that earned him 32.9 DraftKings points with 10 strikeouts in 7 2/3 innings.
Rolling with King on Friday could be a great play, but going with him against the Dodgers is too risky for anything but GPP lineups.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers are visiting Coors Field to take on the Rockies this weekend, and they have the highest implied run total on Friday in the game with the highest over/under. They’ll be facing lefty Austin Gomber, who has an 0-2 record in seven starts with a 3.79 ERA and 5.27 FIP. He has held lefties to a .212 batting average this season but has given up six home runs and a .353 wOBA to righties.
Marcus Semien is a great place to start at the top of the lineup. He is hitting .340 with a .401 wOBA on the season against lefties and went 11-for-15 (.733) over his last three games, producing 37, 22, and 15 DraftKings points. In the aggregated projections (discussed below), he has the second-highest ceiling projection on the slate.
Even though they’re lefties, Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe are affordable enough to be big parts of this stack along with righty Adolis Garcia. If you need a value part of this stack, check out Robbie Grossman, whom the Rangers reacquired in a trade from the White Sox on Wednesday.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
2B Ozzie Albies ($5,200) Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
Whenever the Braves face a lefty, Albies has to be on your fantasy baseball radar. The switch-hitting 2B has the second-highest ceiling projection at the position behind only Semien, as he comes into this great matchup with Jose Quintana.
Albies is 9-for-28 (.321) with a homer against lefties this season after crushing them for a .391 average and .433 wOBA last season. He also has had success in this specific matchup, going 7-for-13 (.538) against Quintana, with four extra-base hits including two homers.
While he did miss some time due to injury, Albies has been productive when available this year. He’s hitting .290 with two homers, two stolen bases, and a .350 wOBA. He has locked himself in as the second hitter in the lineup between Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley, a very productive place to be.
OF Jarren Duran ($4,700) Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
The Red Sox have the second-most implied runs on Friday night’s slate due to their matchup with mashable lefty Patrick Corbin. Even though he’s also a lefty, Duran is a great option in the outfield from under $5,000 since he has been heating up from the lead-off spot in the Red Sox lineup.
Over his last 10 games, Duran is 13-for-40 (.325) with three doubles and four triples. He added a stolen base to boost his average production to 10.6 DraftKings points per game over that span. On the season, he has a .333 wOBA with one homer and nine stolen bases and has scored 22 runs in his 27 games.
Duran has actually hit better against lefties like Corbin this season, with a .282 batting average and .345 wOBA. He should be in a good spot to stay hot as the Red Sox return to Fenway for the weekend. Check out who else can bring good value from the Boston lineup using our PlateIQ tool:
2B/3B Jose Fermin ($2,000) St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (Robert Gasser)
Fermin is projected to hit lead off against the Brewers since they’ll be bringing up lefty Robert Gasser for his MLB debut. Normally, Friday would be Freddy Peralta’s turn, but he is serving his five-game suspension. Since he’s available at the minimum salary, Fermin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on Friday’s slate.
Fermin hit lead off against lefty Sean Manaea on Monday and went 2-for-4 with a run scored for 8.0 DraftKings points. The 25-year-old infielder started hot in 18 games at Triple-A with the Memphis Redbirds, hitting .350 with four homers, five stolen bases and a .480 wOBA. He has had limited playing time in the MLB but is hitting .273 with a .343 wOBA and a stolen base in just 11 at-bats.
He brings good speed and a little power to the top of the lineup and could carve out more playing time in the platoon since the Cardinals are a little lefty-heavy overall. Fermin doesn’t have to do much to be worth this salary and has the added flexibility of fitting at either 2B or 3B depending on how the rest of your roster shapes up.
