The MLB DFS Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
After a fun time in Texas for the All-Star Game, Major League Baseball is back in action with a jam-packed Friday slate of awesome DFS fantasy baseball action. The main contest gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET and includes 11 games. Over half of those matchups are divisional contests, including the Rays and Yankees meeting at the start of the night and the Mariners hosting the Astros in the final game of the slate. In between, Coors Field is also in play, as the Rockies host the Giants in an NL West matchup. There are plenty of options to consider from the 22 teams in the player pool, so let’s dive right into our models for this Friday.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Gerrit Cole ($9,000) New York Yankees (-171) vs Tampa Bay Rays
With several top pitchers available in tough matchups, Cole is an attractive option on Friday’s slate at home against the Rays since he brings a high ceiling at his affordable salary. He has the highest ceiling projection of all starting pitchers in THE BAT X projections and the fourth-highest strikeout prediction.
Cole has been limited to only five starts this season, but he’s showing signs that he’s ready to lock into his top form. He gave up eight runs in eight innings in his first two starts before allowing only six runs in 15 1/3 over his last three outings, which included wins over the Blue Jays and Orioles. In those starts, Cole had 21 strikeouts with at least six punchouts in each performance. He still hasn’t worked his way up to his full workload, but he did go six innings for the first time all season last Friday. He had a season-high 25.9 DraftKings points in that game and will look to continue that momentum coming out of the break against the Rays.
Tampa Bay is a pretty neutral matchup overall, but the Yankees are the second-heaviest favorites on the slate, according to our Vegas Dashboard. Cole has the second-lowest opponents’ implied run total of all starting pitchers and should be in a good head-to-head matchup with Zach Eflin, who lost to the Yankees in his last start before the break and is 5-6 with a 3.99 ERA on the season.
With plenty of run support expected, Cole will look to continue his recent success and pick up another victory. His high strikeout potential and solid matchup make him the top stud to build around Friday night.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Luis Castillo ($8,200) Seattle Mariners (-130) vs. Houston Astros
Castillo has the second-highest ceiling projection in both THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections this Friday. He’s a great value with only the 10th-highest salary and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus in both sets of projections. His salary is surprisingly affordable for his home matchup against the Astros.
In 20 starts before the break, Castillo went 8-9 with a 3.53 ERA and 3.77 FIP. His strikeout rate is down this year overall, but he has been an effective workhorse in the Mariners rotation. He posted two strong outings going into the break with back-to-back wins over the Blue Jays and Angels that earned him 30.6 and 23.9 DraftKings points, respectively.
In his pitcher-friendly home park, Castillo has a 2.98 ERA and 3.08 FIP with a solid 9.85 K/9. He will be on the right side of those splits in Friday’s start against the Astros, who he held to two runs in six innings with six strikeouts in a no-decision earlier this season. He finished with 17.9 DraftKings points in that start, which is right around his season average of 17.6 DraftKings points per start.
Even though the Astros offense has been rolling, they have the lowest implied team total on the slate, meaning Vegas expects Castillo to hold them in check on Friday night. Since he’s so affordable, Castillo should bring good value in this outing, and he has plenty of upside if he carries over his form from before the break.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
JP Sears ($6,300) Oakland Athletics (-110) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Sears is a great place to shop if you’re looking for a cheap play with a high ceiling this Friday. He has been boom-or-bust this season but is one of the cheapest options on the board. He brings the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all starters in the FantasyLabs projections and the sixth-highest in THE BAT X projections.
Sears already matched his career-high with six wins this season, going 6-7 with a 4.56 ERA, 4.71 FIP, and 6.8 K/9 in his 19 starts before the All-Star break. He threw 100 2/3 innings and improved on several key metrics. He reduced his HR/9 from 1.78 to 1.25 while increasing his ground ball percentage from 29.1% to 37.0%. His pitch mix has included much more of his sinker and much less of his fastball, which has led to overall improved results. While his strikeout rate is down a little due to the change, he did pick up at least six strikeouts in each of his last three starts before the All-Star Break and earned over 15 DraftKings points in each start.
On July 4, Sears took on the Angels in Oakland in the same matchup he has this Friday. In that game, he threw five shutout innings with six strikeouts, allowing just two hits and a walk to earn the win and 24.3 DraftKings points. He should be well-rested for this rematch since he hasn’t pitched since Wednesday before the break.
The Angels’ current lineup doesn’t have much power potential, and the team has the third-lowest ISO and wOBA in the MLB over the last 30 days. If Sears can come close to matching his start from earlier this month and continue to limit the damage by relying on his sinker, he has the potential to be an elite value at this bargain salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by both Projected Points and Ceiling using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Francisco Giants:
Since the Giants resume play after the break at Coors Field, it’s no surprise that they take the top stack spot. They have the highest implied run total and are -165 favorites against the Rockies with probable starter Cal Quantrill. Quantrill was actually solid earlier this season but gave up at least three runs in four of his last five starts, allowing 18 runs in 23 1/3 innings and surrendering six homers.
The Giants stack starts at the top of their lineup with Jorge Soler, who has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any hitter on the board in the aggregated projections explained below. He has hit leadoff for the last 13 games for the Giants, going 13-for-54 (.241), with nine of those 13 hits going for extra bases, including his 10th homer of the season. He hasn’t even attempted a stolen base yet, so don’t expect typical leadoff speed from Soler, but his power potential gives him a good ceiling at elevation.
Heliot Ramos is having a breakout season in the Giants outfield and is another strong play to consider. He is hitting .298 with 14 homers and a .379 wOBA in his 60 games. Lamonte Wade Jr. is a relatively affordable play expected to slot between Soler and Ramos while Mike Yastrzemski and Brett Wisely are other options from San Francisco you can mix in to save a little salary but still get Coors exposure.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
1B/OF Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Boston Red Sox (Nick Pivetta)
After homering in the All-Star game, Ohtani returns to work for the Dodgers as they pick up play after the break against the surging Red Sox. Ohtani has the highest ceiling and median projections of all hitters in the aggregated projections, and he has a solid Projected Plus/Minus, even though he doesn’t come cheap.
Ohtani is hitting .316 on the season with an NL-leading 29 home runs and .433 wOBA. He has been carrying more of the offensive workload, hitting leadoff since the injury to Mookie Betts (wrist), but he continues to put up great numbers. He hit eight home runs in his last 20 games before the break, posting a .467 wOBA and 25.0% barrel rate, per Statcast.
Not only has his power been on display, but recently, the 30-year-old has been showing off his wheels as well. He has seven stolen bases in his last 10 games and is up to 23 thefts on the season. In those 10 games, he has produced 12.8 DraftKings points per game, which is only slightly above his 12.0 DraftKings points per game season average. If you’re paying up for a big bat on this slate, Ohtani is a great place to start.
3B/OF Adam Frazier ($3,000) Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
If you need some value plays in your Friday lineup, the aggregate projections point out some strong options. Frazier has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all 3B and the fourth-highest of all hitters and brings the added flexibility of also being able to slot into the outfield if you want to go with another option at the hot corner.
Frazier missed some time on the IL with a thumb strain but has been regularly leading off for the Royals since his return. The veteran lefty is an on-base specialist without elite power or speed numbers, but hitting in front of a strong lineup gives him a good ceiling. Since returning, he is 4-for-19 (.211) with a home run and four runs scored, averaging 7.0 DraftKings points per game.
On Friday, Frazier and the Royals have a favorable home matchup against Chris Flexen and the White Sox. They have the second-highest implied run total on the board, behind only the Giants, and here’s how they stack up in our PlateIQ tool:
SS Xavier Edwards ($2,900) Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
Edwards has made a nice splash since rejoining the Marlins after starting the season on the IL with a bacterial infection in his foot. The 24-year-old speedster has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all hitters on Friday’s slate and the highest of all shortstops by a wide margin.
Last season, Edwards flashed upside with 37 stolen bases in Triple-A and the MLB. After recovering from his foot issue, he played 29 games in Triple-A with the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, hitting .330 with one homer, five stolen bases, and a solid .370 wOBA. Since being called up in early July, Edwards has hit safely in 10 of 12 games, with multiple hits in six of his last eight. He’s also started to run more, swiping three bases in three attempts over his last four games.
Long term, he’ll likely have to run to maintain his fantasy value, but he should get the opportunity to do just that as the Marlins let their younger players get more playing time for the rest of their lost season. Edwards and Frazier are each good examples of cheap players in good lineup spots and matchups this Friday.
