The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Tonight’s slate is loaded with All-Star caliber pitchers. Four possess a salary of at least $9,900 on FanDuel:
- Gerrit Cole (R) $11,500, HOU vs. KC
- Jacob deGrom (R) $11,100, NYM @ SD
- Max Scherzer (R) $10,500, WSH @ MIL
- Blake Snell (L) $9,900, TB vs. ARI
Cole is coming off an absolute gem in his last outing, shutting out the Twins while racking up 11 strikeouts over seven innings. Cole has increased his K/9 to 13.50 through his first 43.1 innings this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.87 on FanDuel over his first seven starts.
He appears to check all the boxes against the Royals tonight. His Vegas data is absolutely elite — 3.0 opponent implied team total and -269 moneyline odds — and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically posted a Plus/Minus of +6.23 on FanDuel (per our Trends tool). His K Prediction of 8.7 also ranks second on the slate. He’s the safest option among the stud pitchers for cash games.
deGrom has struggled to find his form from last season to begin 2019, pitching to a 3.82 ERA. While that’s still a quality number, it’s more than two full runs higher than his 1.70 ERA from last season. That said, he did pitch seven scoreless innings against the Reds in his last start, so perhaps he’s beginning to turn things around.
He’s in a great spot against the Padres, whose projected lineup has struck out in 28.3% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, which could spell trouble against an elite strikeout pitcher like deGrom. He’s increased his K/9 to 13.36 this season and leads all pitchers on the slate with a K Prediction of 9.6.
Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom
He should also benefit from pitching on the road in San Diego. Petco Park has historically been a pitcher-friendly venue, giving deGrom a Park Factor of 81.
Scherzer is tough to trust on the road against the Brewers, who have posted a .329 wOBA against right-handers over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is significantly higher than the rest of the stud pitchers.
His Statcast profile from his past two starts is also slightly concerning. He’s allowed opposing batters to compile an average distance of 221 feet and a hard-hit rate of 44%, both of which represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages. Add it all up, and Scherzer carries more risk than usual.
Snell is coming off an extremely uncharacteristic start in his last outing. He lasted just three innings against the Royals after allowing six hits, three walks and seven earned runs. He wasn’t much better in his previous outing either, posting a Plus/Minus of -30.75 on FanDuel.
That said, his Statcast data from those starts is actually pretty impressive. He limited opposing batters to an average distance of 198 feet, exit velocity of 87 miles per hour and hard-hit rate of 30%, all of which represent decreases when compared to his 12-month averages. His salary has decreased by $1,700 over the past month, which makes this an excellent time to buy low on him.
He also has an excellent matchup against the Diamondbacks. He’s a -202 favorite and owns an opponent implied team total of 3.1 runs, both of which are among the top marks on the slate.
Values
The best Vegas data on the slate doesn’t belong to Cole, deGrom or Snell. It belongs to Cole Hamels, who has rejuvenated his career since joining the Cubs. He’s pitched to a 3.19 ERA this season, and that number has dropped to 2.70 when pitching at home. He also pitched to a 1.55 ERA in six starts at Wrigley last season.
He’s tough to ignore for a couple of reasons. First, he has an elite matchup against the Marlins, whose offense has been anemic this season, ranking dead last in runs per game. Their projected lineup has also posted a .270 wOBA and 27.4% strikeout rate against southpaws over the past 12 months.
He also benefits from the current weather conditions in Chicago. The current forecast calls for a 10 mph wind blowing in directly from center field. According to our data at BetLabs, the under has gone 101-70-12 against the spread when blowing in at Wrigley since 2005.
It all culminates in an opponent implied team total of just 2.7 runs for Hamels, and pitchers with comparable salaries and opponent implied team totals have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.69 on FanDuel. He figures to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate.
Walker Buehler was expected to become the Dodgers’ ace this season, but he’s been nothing short of a disaster. He’s pitched to an average Plus/Minus of -10.60 on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of his first seven starts. His Statcast data from his past two starts is also concerning, resulting in a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +18 feet.
Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Walker Buehler
That said, he’s still getting love from Vegas against the Braves. He owns an opponent implied team total of 3.6 runs and -157 moneyline odds, both of which are among the best marks outside of the stud tier. His salary has also decreased by -$800 over the past month on FanDuel, and his $8,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%.
Fast Break
Jhoulys Chacin: He’s very affordable across the industry and has an outstanding matchup against the Nationals, whose projected lineup has posted a .282 wOBA and 31.3% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months, giving Chacin solid marks in both opponent implied team total (3.8) and K Prediction (7.5).
Chris Paddack: He’s been outstanding through his first six MLB starts, pitching to a 1.91 ERA and 9.55 K/9. He’s taking on a Mets team that has really struggled offensively over the past week, averaging just 2.5 runs per game over their past six contests.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. Today’s top five-man DraftKings stack per the Bales Model belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
- 1. Mookie Betts (R)
- 2. Xander Bogaerts (R)
- 3. J.D. Martinez (R)
- 4. Michael Chavis (R)
- 9. Jackie Bradley Jr. (L)
Total salary: $23,400
The Red Sox lead the slate with an implied team total of 5.4 runs, which will obviously make them a popular target. That said, stacking them in the above manner should increase your chances of having a unique lineup. Bradley in particular is projected for just 2-4% ownership.
Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mookie Betts
They’re taking on Orioles’ right-hander John Means, who has actually posted a 2.81 ERA through his first 25.2 minutes. That said, his FIP of 4.51 is significantly higher, which suggests he could be due for some regression moving forward. His Statcast numbers from his past two starts are also uninspiring: he’s underperforming his 12-month marks in average distance, exit velocity and hard-hit rate over that span.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
- 1. Matt Carpenter (L)
- 2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- 3. Paul DeJong (R)
- 5. Jose Martinez (R)
Total salary: $13,500
They’re taking on Phillies right-hander Vince Velasquez, and their implied team total of 4.7 runs ranks third on the slate. Velasquez has pitched well this season, posting a 2.73 ERA, but he’s been hit hard over his past two starts. He’s allowed opposing batters to post an average distance of 222 feet and hard hit rate of 45%, both of which represent sizable increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
The Cardinals have also been one of the best teams in baseball this season against right-handed pitchers. They’ve posted a .342 wOBA and 114 wRC+, both of which rank fifth in the league.
All four of the stacked batters have also performed better against right-handers than left-handers over the past 12 months, despite the fact that three of the batters are right-handed hitters.
Other Batters
Inexpensive leadoff hitters are always appealing in MLB DFS, and Max Kepler fits that bill tonight. He’s taking on Blue Jays’ right-hander Marcus Stroman, which puts him on the positive side of his batting splits, and Kepler has also posted excellent Statcast numbers over the past 15 days. He’s exceeded his 12-month average distance of +20 feet over that time frame, and leadoff hitters with comparable distance differentials have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +0.92 on DraftKings.
Corey Seager has been priced down to $3,600 on DraftKings, a decrease of $500 over the past month. He’s struggled over that span, averaging just 5.6 DraftKings points per game, but he’s still a guy that can do damage in the right matchups. He’s posted a .327 wOBA and .177 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, and he’s expected to bat second against Braves’ right-hander Kevin Gausman. This is a great opportunity to buy low on a talented hitter.
Good luck, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more in-depth MLB analysis.
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Pictured above: Cubs SP Cole Hamels (35) & C Willson Contreras (40)
Photo credit: Jon Durr-USA TODAY Sports
