The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features an eight-game slate starting at 1:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Zack Wheeler ($10,000) Philadelphia Phillies (-160) at Cincinnati Reds
It’s a good day for pitchers, as nearly half of the 16 teams on the slate come in with totals of four runs or fewer. Some of those pitchers are relatively affordable too, which could be viewed two ways. The first is that there’s no reason to pay five-figures for Wheeler when there are reasonable alternatives. The second is that with a cheaper SP2, getting up to Wheeler is easier.
He’s clearly the top play, leading both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT median projections. His 2.30 ERA in 2024 is right in line with all of his leading indicators, and his 30% strikeout rate is similarly supported by an increase in his swinging strike rate.
All of this is to say that he’s earned his 23.4 points-per-game average on DraftKings this season. Now he draws a matchup with a high-strikeout team in Cincinnati that’s been somewhat below-average overall on offense. He’ll be heavily owned, but he’s still worth playing today.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Simeon Woods Richardson ($4,000) Minnesota Twins (-22) vs. Chicago White Sox
For at least the second time this year, DraftKings has left a pitcher at minimum price despite the fact that they’re expected to be a traditional starter rather than an opener. Richardson is back in the big leagues after making a start earlier this month — a start in which he pitched six innings of one-run ball against the Tigers.
Now he draws an even better matchup with the White Sox, the worst offense in baseball by wRC+. Chicago is implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs today, so Vegas is clearly siding with the rookie. From what little big-league data we have on him, he doesn’t seem like a high upside player — but he also doesn’t need to be at minimum salary.
The Woods Richardson/Wheeler pairing is going to be extremely popular today, but for good reason. I’d consider pivoting off one or the other in large-field GPPs, but for smaller contests and cash games, both should be locked in. Woods Richardson leads the Pts/Sal projections in both systems by a wide margin.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,600) Los Angeles Dodgers (-192) at Washington Nationals
Yamamoto has struggled a bit transitioning to the MLB, with a 4.50 ERA through his first five starts stateside. At least at first glance. If we dig a little deeper, maybe he’s just been unlucky. His xFIP and SIERA are both well below 3.00, with an elite 32.3% strikeout rate.
He’s due for some positive regression in both BABIP and HR/FB ratio, both of which are somewhat above league average. That could come today against the Nationals, who rank 22nd in wRC+ as a team. Four of his first five starts have been against top-12 offenses, so this is a nice step down in competition.
His excellent underlying numbers and strong matchup make him a perfect pivot from the much more popular Wheeler for GPPs. Or he could be paired with Wheeler if fading Woods Richardson. Either way should be somewhat unique today, making him a strong GPP target.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the San Diego Padres:
The good news is the Padres have increased their run scoring for every game of their four-game series at Coors Field. The bad news is those numbers have been three, four, and five. They’re implied to continue that upward trajectory today, with a 6.1-run total for their final game in the series against Colorado.
Of course, their price tags have came up a bit as well, but it’s still a solid spot. They draw Dakota Hudson ($5,000) and his 5.06 ERA this afternoon. Hudson has arguably been worse than that, with his BABIP and HR/FB ratio both a bit lower than league average — something that he won’t sustain pitching in Coors Field.
Hudson is a low-strikeout pitcher as well, making him exactly the type of pitcher we want to stack against at Coors Field. Let’s give the Padres one more shot.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Julio Rodriguez OF ($5,000) Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers (Andrew Heaney)
Fresh off his 30/30 campaign in 2023, Rodriguez is off to a somewhat slow start this year. He’s hitting .266 with just one home run — though he does have six steals already. Still, we know the talent is there, and his price has dropped a full $1,000 since opening day.
That makes him a strong play as the lead-off hitter in the Mariners lineup. Seattle has a solid 4.8-run implied total against the left-handed Heaney. That also means Rodriguez is on the right side of his platoon splits, with a career batting average about ten points higher against southpaws.
His teammate Mitch Garver C ($3,500) is also a solid option. Garver is too cheap for a catcher batting cleanup, and he has a .403 wOBA against lefties since the start of 2023.
Justin Turner 1B ($4,300) Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals (Cole Ragans)
Turner is a bit of an off-the-board play today, primarily because he’s listed as a first baseman on DraftKings, where there’s plenty of other viable options. However, it’s a solid matchup for Turner against the lefty Ragans, as made clear by PlateIQ:
While it would be nice if Turner was eligible at third base (where PlateIQ lists him), his inconvenient positional designation should help reduce ownership, making him more appealing for GPPs.
