This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 15 Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Lamar Jackson has topped 20 DraftKings points in 12-of-13 games this season, with a season-low (14.4) that would top the median projection of every other player on tonight’s slate in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Jackson’s 1.5x median projection comes in a whopping 15 points higher than the next closest player on the slate (Mark Ingram).
Luckily, injuries to Jets wide receiver Demaryius Thomas (hamstring, out) and tight end Ryan Griffin (ankle, out) have created enough value to jam Jackson in the 1.5x spot. Vyncint Smith played a season-high 49% of the snaps last week and is expected to fill Thomas’ spot. At cost of just $600, Smith carries the slate’s second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
At tight end, Daniel Brown is expected to fill Griffin’s role and comes with the top median projection of any player under $3,800 after playing a season-best 87% of snaps last week. However, Ravens wideout Seth Roberts is within tenths of a point and makes for a better option, in my opinion. Why? Under defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, the Ravens are the NFL’s highest-percentage blitz team (53.9%, per Pro Football Reference). The extra rushers naturally force opposing backs and/or tight ends to stay in to block, and the end result has been the Baltimore defense allowing bottom-two reception volume to running backs (50) and tight ends (46).
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Daniel Brown
As Jets tight ends have blocked on 26% of pass snaps this season compared to 14% for running backs, Brown figures to take on the bulk of those responsibilities. Meanwhile, the Jets also blitz at a top-five rate on defense (38.2%) while allowing eighth-highest reception total to opposing wide receivers (171). Roberts stands to be one of the prime beneficiaries, as he and Marquise Brown are the only Ravens wide receiver to run a pass route on at least 50% of the team’s dropbacks in each of the past four games.
Even with Smith and Roberts as punts, rolling with Jackson as Captain and Ingram in one of the FLEX slots forces you to fade either Le’Veon Bell or Sam Darnold. Both players’ have equal floor projections, but Bell has a half-point edge in median. Then there’s this: According to our NFL Trends tool, Darnold is averaging a lowly 11.50 DraftKings points with a lineup-sinking -4.84 Plus/Minus in six matchups this season against defenses with a blitz rate of 30% or more like Baltimore, surpassing salary-based expectations just once (16.7%). For those same reasons, this is one of the rare weeks when a DST is cash-viable. Averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game over the last seven, Ravens DST has a top-eight floor projection in our models and is the optimal cash play with a Jackson-Ingram-Bell core.
On FanDuel, you can get in Jackson, Ingram, and Bell along with Smith and Justin Tucker, who has a top-five median projection in this game thanks to his team’s 30.75 point implied total (view live odds here).
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
RB Mark Ingram, Ravens: Ingram has a tough matchup against a Jets defense allowing an NFL-low 3.0 yards per carry, but he still projects for the most touches for a team expected to score twice as many points as its opponent. Our models have Ingram’s ceiling projection trailing only Jackson.
WR Marquise Brown, Ravens: The explosive rookie has struggled to produce in tough matchups against the 49ers and Bills over the past two weeks, but this sets up as a get-right spot against a pass-funneling Jets defense — one that will be without safety Jamal Adams (ankle) and cornerback Brian Poole (concussion), both of whom rank top-seven at their positions in Pro Football Focus coverage grades this season. I also love Mark Andrews (knee) with Adams out, but Andrews is the more likely of the two to have their snaps capped after being limited in practice this week. Andrews’ injury risk/uncertainty knocks his ceiling projection down a tier in our models relative to Brown, who clocks in third after Jackson and Ingram.
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown (15).
Ravens DST: The blitz-happy Ravens have tallied 22 sacks over their past seven games, posting 13-plus fantasy points in five of the seven. As my colleague Stuckey so eloquently put it on this week’s NFL edition of The Action Network Podcast, “Darnold could be seeing more ghosts.”
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
Ravens
- Jackson-Brown +0.60
- Brown-Andrews +0.58
- Snead-Roberts +0.57
- Jackson-Andrews +0.55
- Ingram-Edwards +0.54
- Snead-Boykin +0.53
- Brown-Snead +0.32
- Jackson-Boykin +0.27
- Jackson-Ravens DST +0.23
- Jackson-Roberts +0.20
- Jackson-Boyle +0.14
- Jackson-Ingram +0.13
- Jackson-Tucker +0.11
- Boyle-Hurst +0.09
- Jackson-Snead +0.01
- Jackson-Edwards -0.16
- Jackson-Hurst -0.18
- Boyle-Snead -0.19
- Boyle-Roberts -0.26
- Ingram-Tucker -0.27
- Boyle-Boykin -0.42
The staple of Baltimore’s offense is lining up with least two of its trio of tight ends — Andrews, Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst — on the field on almost every snap, which can limit the opportunities for the wide receivers. But in looking at the data, what stands out is that all of Baltimore’s wide receivers have moderate to strong positive correlations with each other, suggesting they tend to be featured as a unit, which would also explain why Brown and Andrews (who is more like a wide receiver) are also positively correlated while the complimentary receivers (Roberts, Willie Snead, Miles Boykin) each show a negative correlation to Boyle, the team’s top blocking tight end. As mentioned, the Jets are blitz-heavy under Gregg Williams, so this sets up as a game in which multiple Ravens WRs could hit.
The other notable positive correlation is Mark Ingram–Gus Edwards. I doubt the field will pair them together at a high rate because running backs generally eat into each other’s production, but with the Ravens 17-point home favorites, both could easily hit.
Jets
- Darnold-Jets DST +0.67
- Darnold-Anderson +0.52
- Darnold-Bell +0.50
- Bell-Crowder +0.49
- Bell-Jets DST +0.25
- Darnold-Crowder +0.23
- Anderson-Crowder -0.18
- Montgomery-Jets DST -0.32
Odds are that Darnold struggles, so it’s worrisome to see the two so strongly correlated. I think the leverage play is to create lineups in which you fade both, which likely won’t be the norm. Baltimore has top-level cornerback pay inside with Marlon Humphrey and outside with Marcus Peters and Jimmy Smith, so it’s tough to truly differentiate Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson. As Crowder’s average depth of target (7.8, per AirYards.com) is barely half as high as Anderson’s (15.5), the former profiles as a better volume-based standalone play while the latter works better in Darnold stacks, which the correlation data also aligns with.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jets running back Le’Veon Bell (26)
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Justice Hill, Ravens: As evidenced by the strong positive correlation between Ingram and Edwards, the Ravens are run-heavy enough to support two backs at the same time. As such, Hill sets up as more of leverage play on both than Edwards does on Ingram. Hill has at least six touches in each of the past two games the Ravens have won by more than one possession.
K Justin Tucker, Ravens: Kickers don’t usually have as much upside because they don’t score touchdowns, but our models give Tucker a top-seven ceiling projection for this game.
RB Ty Montgomery, Jets: Assuming he’s active, Montgomery (foot/hip) has multiple avenues to leverage. He could potentially fill in for Bell in the hurry-up offense in garbage tie. And he’s a former wide receiver, so he could also see snaps out wide that would otherwise have been expected to go to Smith.
TE Trevon Wesco, Jets: This is a great GPP slate for leverage; we have a run-heavy team on one side expected to jump out to a lead, and cheap pass-catchers expected to see snaps on the other. Brown will draw higher ownership than Wesco, which is correct — Brown is a former receiver who has spent half pass blocked only half as much as Wesco (58%) — but the degree to which Brown will likely be owned relative to Wesco still puts Wesco owners in great position for leverage.
WR Braxton Berrios, Jets: Usually the No. 4 wide receiver would go in the dart throw section, but with uncertainty at WR3 and TE for the Jets, Berrios has a chance to outscore both Brown and Smith and will also likely carry a fraction of their ownership.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Miles Boykin, Ravens: Boykin’s aDOT of 17.2 is 5 yards higher than anyone else on the Ravens, and he’s facing a Jets defense ranked 26th in deep passing efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
- WR Seth Roberts, Ravens: Has been running the second-most routes among the team’s wide receivers over the past month and has a similar ceiling to Snead, Hurst, Boyle at less than half the cost.
- WR Willie Snead, Ravens: Third on the Ravens in air yards (384) and red-zone targets (7).
- TE Hayden Hurst, Ravens: Fifth on Baltimore in air yards (247), fourth in red-zone targets (6). Benefits if Andrews’ snaps are limited due to injury.
- TE Nick Boyle, Ravens: Seventh on the team in air yards (232), fifth in red-zone targets (5).
- RB Joshua Adams, Jets: Had a couple of four-carry games when first acquired and could set a new season-high if Montgomery is limited.
- WR D’Anthony Thomas, Ravens: Returner who you can stack with Ravens DST.
- WR Chris Moore, Ravens: Hasn’t seen offensive snaps lately but good get garbage tie work and has the second-highest aDOT (12.2).
- QB Robert Griffin III: Jackson could be pulled early due to a blowout, the quad issue, or both.
- FB Patrick Ricard, Ravens: Has seen nine targets (one inside the 10) across 13 games.
Pictured above: Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8).
Photo credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports.
