Welcome to Week 7!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief, but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stacks
Kansas City Chiefs (31) at Tennessee Titans (26.5)
I am writing up two on this slate because I think the Titans side of this game stack might go overlooked.
- Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown = 41.9% projected rostership
- Ryan Tannehill, AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill = 33.9% projected rostership
By simply changing our quarterback in our stack, we get a discount on the same great game environment. The Chiefs have been extremely friendly to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers as well, allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.4 and +1.3 to the positions.
Tannehill and company have a great implied team total of 26.5 points, and he is the No.1 rated quarterback in my model this week.
Another way to get even more unique on this side of the ball is to add Anthony Firkser to this stack. It is a little thin, but the price tag helps mitigate that. Over the last three weeks, he has a route run percentage of 53.6% and has seen 10 targets — three of which have been in the red zone.
Firkser is a small-field tournament play only.
Atlanta Falcons (25) vs. Miami Dolphins Ravens (23)
I am usually looking for higher team totals, but on a 10-game slate, we don’t have much to work with if we want to avoid some of the chalk game stacks. On a slate like this, I can see myself playing #TheBestPlays with a Titans vs. Chiefs stack or some mix of the Rams, Raiders, Eagles, Lions, Packers. We just need to be very unique with our other players.
As for the Atlanta stack, Matt Ryan has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 and a healthy implied team total of 25-points. The Dolphins have been friendly to opposing wide receivers allowing a +1.3 Opponent Plus/Minus to the positions. Neither of these teams are playing very quickly, but they both rank above league average inside the top ten in situation-neutral pace.
It is also important to note that they are facing the eighth-highest pass rate and have averaged the seventh-most total points over their last four games.
When looking at a cumulative rostership standpoint, the only player I have for over 10% is Calvin Ridley, and even he comes in sub-15%.
My Core Plays
Matt Ryan
As I mentioned above in my overlooked stack of the week, he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 and a healthy implied team total of 25 points. Over the last five games, he has had no fewer than 35 pass attempts, and he has three games in that span of 42+ pass attempts.
I am much more inclined to double-stack him with two pass-catchers because he lacks rushing upside.
Darrell Henderson
The Rams have a 33-point implied team total and are a 16-point home favorite. Both of those are the highest on the slate. Henderson has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.1 and a healthy eight Pro Trends. This is chalk I will not be fading for the second week in a row.
Henderson is also the No.1 rated running back in my model.
Joe Mixon
Mixon has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.6 and has seen 18 opportunities inside the 10-yard line this season. Mixon has a 39% markets share of his team’s total opportunities, which is fourth-highest at the running back position. He is averaging 19 total rush attempts per game, and while the implied team total is low, we are getting a discount on rostership for a player who is averaging 23 opportunities per game in a decent matchup.
Robby Anderson
Robby Anderson has 359 air yards and has seen 29 targets over the last three weeks. In that same three-week span, he has a 0.64 weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) and is running a route 89% of the time.
He also has a decent matchup here with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +0.2
Calvin Ridley
Ridley comes in as the third highest-rated wide receiver in my model this week. He has a 0.75 WOPR this season which is tied with Cooper Kupp for third-best at the position. He has a healthy 0.26 targets per route run on a very high 94.2 route run percentage. Atlanta has a solid implied team total of 25 points, and Ridley has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.3
Allen Robinson
Over the last four weeks, Robinson leads the team in routes run, wTPRR (weighted targets per route run), and 429 air yards. In that same four-week span, he has the eighth-highest WOPR at a position and the fourth-highest air yards per route run.
His team total is extremely low, but his Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.4 is the second-best on the slate.
Kyle Pitts
In the five games that Pitts has played this season, he is averaging 7.2 targets per game and 65 intended air yards per game. Both metrics rank inside the top six at the tight position. He also has the sixth-highest WOPR among tight ends and leads all tight ends in my model with a leverage score of 16, which is six points higher than the next tight end.
Run good in Week 7!
