Welcome to Week 4!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief but comprehensive analysis of the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Wildcat, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Let’s Dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Houston Texans (15) vs. Buffalo Bills (32)
Even though I have Josh Allen projected to be one of the top three highest-rostered quarterbacks this week, the entire game stack looks like it could certainly fly under the radar:
What do you think is the most popular game stack this week in DFS? If other, leave it in the comments.
— RyanHodge.eth (@RyanHodge) September 29, 2021
This adds up, too, as I don’t have a single pass catcher in this game projected to be rostered more than 5%. The Bills are passing almost 70% on early downs so far in 2021 and are passing at a 60% clip overall.
They are also the second-fastest team in regards to situation-neutral plays. Allen has a great Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.6, and he is the second-highest-rated player in my quarterback model. The Buffalo side of the ball is easy to stack as a skinny stack, or adding an extra pass catcher along With Stefon Diggs such as Emmanuel Sanders. Brandin Cooks is a very appealing bring-back option. He is third in the league in air yards per route run and has a Leverage Score of four in my Player Model.
My Core Plays
Jalen Hurts
Jalen has the second-best Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate (+7.0) and is also playing in the game with the second-highest over/under on the slate, which is currently set to 54.5. He has no fewer than seven rushing attempts on the season, along with a has a solid 34-point Ceiling Projection, and Hurts projects to be moderately rostered.
David Montgomery
The Bears team total and pace of play is certainly a concern here, but the volume, matchup, and price make up for it. Montgomery has a +2.1 Opponent Plus/Minus and has seen 36% of his team’s opportunities (targets and rush attempts) over the first three weeks.
He ranks as the fifth-best running back in my FantasyLabs Model this week, and over the last two weeks, he has run a route on at least 60% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks.
Derrick Henry
The Titans have an excellent 25-point implied team total and are a seven-point favorite. Henry has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.7 and leads every player in my model with 10 Pro Trends. He has 47% of his team’s opportunities and a 13% target share through three weeks. With Julio Jones and AJ Brown banged up, Henry could be in line for 30 touches this week.
DJ Moore
He is dominating every important metric on his team. He has a 31% target share, 330 air yards, and a 0.75 weighted opportunity rating. Carolina’s pace of play has been lackluster, but Dallas is playing at the eighth-fastest situation-neutral pace right now.
Jalen Reagor
Both DeVonta Smith and Reagor are in play this week, but I will take the heavy discount with Reagor. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.2, and a healthy 24-point implied team total. Through three games, the Eagles are fourth in situation-neutral plays, and Reagor has seen a 23% target share in that three-game span.
Robert Woods
He is still seeing a respectable 20% target share and has 177 air yards on the season. He is the No. 3 wide receiver in my model, has the third-highest implied team total on the slate, and the Rams are playing at the fastest situation-neutral pace in the league.
Noah Fant
With KJ Hamler and Jerry Jeudy out, I have Fant projected for 23% of his team’s market share of targets. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.2, which is best at the tight end position this week.
Run good in Week 4!
