The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a 15-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Shohei Ohtani ($11,300) Los Angeles Angels (-190) vs. Chicago White Sox
With a full 15-game slate on Tuesday, a crucial decision point will be on where to spend your limited salary. One of the top hitting teams in baseball is playing at Coors, and there are nine teams with at least a five-run implied total. All of those hitters will come at a cost — but the money might be better spent on Ohtani.
He’s been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, despite his numbers actually taking a slight step back. He’s one of just five pitchers with a 30% or higher strikeout rate this season and also has a rock solid 3.13 ERA. On top of that, he’s averaging just a hair under six innings pitcher per game, a solid figure in 2023.
While Ohtani should always be in consideration in DFS, he’s in an even better spot than usual tonight. He’s taking on a White Sox team that ranks 28th against right-handed pitching on the season. The game being at home is another benefit to Ohtani, with an above-average Park Factor and solid Weather Rating in Los Angeles.
He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT projections for median and ceiling today and is worth finding the salary for in all contest types.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Martin Perez ($5,700) Texas Rangers (-210) vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers have been better against left-handed pitching this season — but that doesn’t mean they’ve been good. Detroit ranks 21st against southpaws by wRC+ this season, and much of that was thanks to Riley Greene, who was their best hitter before going on the disabled list at the end of May.
That makes this a good spot for Perez, especially given the salary constraints at play today. Perez is entirely too cheap on DraftKings, where his 97% Bargain Rating leads all pitchers on the slate. He and the Rangers are getting plenty of love from Vegas today, with a solid -210 moneyline and Detroit implied for a reasonably low 4.1 runs.
Perez is more of a cash game play, though, as his upside is somewhat limited. His strikeout rate is a pathetic 15.3%, but it should be a bit higher based on his swinging strike rate. That makes it hard to roster him in GPPs, as he’s unlikely to provide a slate-winning score.
However, if looking to build around some of the more expensive offenses today, Perez is a great option. He leads both projection systems in Pts/Sal.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clayton Kershaw ($9,700) Los Angeles Dodgers (-292) at Colorado Rockies
Reading “at Colorado Rockies” following a pitcher’s name is never a comfortable feeling, but there’s a strong case for going with Kershaw today. The biggest factor is, of course, his ownership. which is projected in the mid-single digits by THE BAT. That’s a rare occurrence for an elite arm like Kershaw, regardless of where he’s playing.
The other big selling point is the matchup. Colorado ranks dead last with a horrible 67 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, 12 points below the next-worst team. It doesn’t really matter how far the ball carries if you can’t hit it — and the Rockies usually can’t hit it.
They also strike out at a 26.7% rate, a top-five figure in baseball this season. That gives Kershaw plenty of upside, as he has a 28.5% strikeout rate himself this season. His swinging strike rate implies an even higher strikeout rate, and we could see that regression kick in against the bad Rockies lineup.
Of course, there’s a chance that a few would-be flyouts turn into homers tonight, making Kershaw too risky for cash games and smaller GPPs. For large field contests, he’s an excellent choice, though.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Tournament Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
To the surprise of no one, the Dodgers check in as the top stack today. They’re implied for 7.8 runs as they take on the Rockies in Coors Field, the largest total I can recall seeing outside of the games in Mexico/London this season.
DraftKings has priced them appropriately for the occasion, though, with this stack coming in at an average price of nearly $6,000 per player. That makes a full five-player stack nearly impossible to fit, at least without taking some major risks at pitcher.
Of course, there are other Dodgers hitters at a more affordable price point that are worth considering. They have the added benefit of being less likely to be subbed out in case of a blowout, which is a distinct possibility here as well. Let’s use our new PlateIQ tool to hunt for some sneaky options who might excel against the left-handed Conor Seabold ($5,000)
Jason Heyward ($3,100) immediately sticks out here. He has a better ISO and comparable wOBA to Mookie Betts while coming in at less than half the price. He’ll also come with a major ownership discount in the lefty-on-lefty matchup, making him an excellent pivot tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JP Crawford SS ($3,100 DraftKings; $2,800 FanDuel) Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin)
I’ll be focusing on some cheap(er) options tonight, under the assumption that it’s worth saving as much salary as possible to load up on the Dodgers and the top pitchers on the board. Crawford fits that bill well on DraftKings, where he has a solid 58% Bargain Rating.
He’s set to leadoff for the Mariners, whose lineup is projected for north of five runs tonight. That makes him a value almost by default since he should have plenty of run-scoring opportunities should he get on base. That’s something he’s done well this year, with a walk rate of 14.3%.
While he lacks the power or speed for massive upside, getting a handful of points at his salary is more than enough to feel good about.
Ji Hwan Bae 2B/OF ($2,500 DraftKings; $2,600 FanDuel) Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Diego Padres (Yu Darvish)
Baw is another leadoff hitter at a value price today, especially on DraftKings. He has a 90% Bargain Rating there, making him one of the best rated players at second base in our models.
Unlike Crawford, he also provides a reasonable amount of upside today. He has 20 steals through 72 games played, which raises his ceiling. His floor is considerably lower, of course, thanks to a somewhat difficult pitching matchup against the Padres’ Darvish. Still, that’s a risk worth taking at his price tag.
Aaron Hicks OF ($2,400 DraftKings; $2,400 FanDuel) Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds (Andrew Abbott)
As is often the case, Hicks is being priced according to his overall production — which hasn’t been good. He’s hitting just .235 on the season, with five home runs and three steals. However, he’s been far better against lefties, which is the matchup he draws today.
In those matchups, his average jumps all the way to .286, with an OPS over .800. It’s no wonder the Orioles use him as the cleanup hitter when facing left-handed starters. That’s a valuable spot today, with Baltimore implied for nearly five runs against the Reds.
