I started playing DFS on DraftStreet in 2013. For the next six years, I primarily played cash games because I was in love with the slow, methodical grind, along with the safety that comes from playing a format where you only have to beat one other person or roughly half the field if you’re in 50/50s or double-ups.
Nowadays, I’ve decided to pull the ripcord on the safety net so that I could seek out more upside.
The hardest part of switching to GPP only? Getting comfortable with losing … a lot more often. However, with proper game selection and bankroll management, all you need is one or two nice scores to be in the black when the season ends.
And when you’re mainly targeting small-field GPPs, your lineups don’t need to be as perfect compared to when you’re entering these larger fields. Personally, I consider a small field as a tournament with 500 or fewer people, but some DFS players may have a broader definition.
And typically, I am playing in tournaments with 300 or fewer people.
Anyway, each week I’ll be using our extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools and the FantasyLabs Player Models to discuss my overall strategy for how I’m attacking these smaller fields.
General Strategy
My overall strategy for these formats is quite simple. I try to find the best spots to correlate and utilize the Leverage Scores in our Player Models to find pivots off of players who are projected for higher rostership.
A lot of the time, when looking for games to target, you land on high-total games because that’s where we’d expect the most points to be scored. Naturally, high-total games come with higher projected ownership on certain players. However, it’s still possible to have unique builds when targeting these games, and we can still insert other one-off plays to differentiate our lineups.
You don’t need a whole lineup of contrarian plays to win a small-field tournament, though it helps to pivot in the right spots. I also tend to rely on the Ceiling Projections instead of Median Projections when I am making my lineup decisions.
Also, keep in mind the projected ownership levels in the models are geared toward large-field GPPs, so there is some guesswork on estimating ownership projections for smaller fields.
Note: I play these small-field tournaments on DraftKings, so that’s what this analysis will focus on.
Additionally, our Lineup Builder is the perfect tool to use when hand-building your small-field GPP lineups.
And don’t forget to check out our brand new Minimalist Tournament Model, which is my favorite Player Model for finding overlooked stacks or underutilized one-off plays with high ceilings.
The Game or Stack I’m Building Around
Minnesota Vikings (24.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (28.25)
In my personal model that I make with various projection inputs from within our Player Models, Justin Herbert has the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection. Given his ceiling and moderate ownership projection, Herbert also ranks second in our new Minimalist Tournament Model.
This game could be up in pace as the Chargers rank fifth in situation-neutral pace, while the Vikings rank 15th. Additionally, this entire game has rather moderate ownership projections, making it even more appealing.
My preferred way to stack in this spot is Herbert with Jared Cook and/or Keenan Allen. Even though Cook has been in a bit of a timeshare at tight end, he still has an 18% target share per route run, and his $3,200 price tag is going to allow a lot of flexibility elsewhere.
I also like Adam Thielen as the bring-back option. He’s standing out with a 91% Leverage Rating and is $1,000 cheaper than Justin Jefferson. Thielen’s 23.5% target share narrowly trails Jefferson’s 24%. Thielen hasn’t been consistent this year, but he does have two games of 30 or more DraftKings points. His yardage totals have been lackluster, but Thielen still has seven touchdowns in eight games. He has two-touchdown upside, and that’s exactly what we are looking for in tournaments.
And while I haven’t quite worked him into my rosters yet, I also think Austin Ekeler is a strong tournament play and can be included in this stack if it works with your roster construction. He’s a strong alternative from Najee Harris and Jonathan Taylor, who all have high Ownership Projections at the time of writing.
One-Off Plays
Usually, these one-off plays are where I am looking to differentiate my roster from everyone else, especially if the stacks I am targeting project to be highly rostered.
My reasoning behind these plays is rather minimalistic — I look at projected ownership and Ceiling Projections. Those two things combined are where we get our Leverage Scores and Ratings.
Our brand new Minimal Tournament Model that’s in our Pro Models is perfect for these plays. It’s a model I created that focuses on three things: Ceiling Projections, Pro Trends, and ownership projections. Keep in mind the plays in this model will fluctuate based on changes in ceiling and ownership projections.
Even though I mentioned you can play Ekeler over Harris and Taylor above, Harris and Taylor are still very much in play, especially in small-field tournaments. Harris has a solid floor/ceiling combination with his 18% target share, and his 26 touches per game over the last six weeks leads the entire league. And despite the high ownership projections, Taylor and Harris still own Leverage Ratings of 96% and 89% because of their high ceilings.
Rostering them just comes down to where you land on the rest of your roster because you’ll need some salary savings somewhere.
The D’Ernest Johnson situation is going to be tricky. Since I try to keep my entire roster’s ownership percentage between 115% and 125%, he’s going to be tough to squeeze in at his massive ownership projection. That said, this might be an exception where I just eat the chalk given his salary and anticipated workload. Running back is typically the one spot I don’t mind rostering the guys with the high ownership projections. DFS is fluid, not black and white, and sometimes we have to make exceptions.
The same goes for Mark Ingram, who is $4,500 now that Alvin Kamara. At the time of writing, Johnson + Ingram would combine for nearly 80+ percent rostership. Those numbers will be even higher in smaller fields.
That said, they’ll allow you to do almost anything you want with your roster, so you could go as contrarian as you want elsewhere.
If you have a higher risk tolerance — you could opt to do the exact opposite of what everyone else is doing — which is paying up for multiple expensive running backs — and pay down elsewhere. I’ll list off those other running backs below.
With Michael Gallup (calf) expected to return this week, he could be an intriguing contrarian option off the higher-rostered Cowboys options. I’d expect him to go overlooked coming off of injured reserve.
The Washington Football Team will likely have to be more pass-heavy in this spot against the Bucs, which leads me to Terry McLaurin. At $7,600, it’s likely he doesn’t see much rostership since Davante Adams is within $300 of him. McLaurin won’t pop in any optimals because he’s not a strong value, but he ranks second in our Leverage Scores among wide receivers.
As the second most-expensive tight end on the slate, TJ Hockenson could make for a nice mini-stack with Harris. Hockenson owns the fourth-highest Ceiling Projection in our models and leads the position in Leverage Score.
Other One-Off Plays in My Player Pool
Some of these guys will have varying ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings. Ultimately, it comes down to your own overall roster construction. I typically try and keep my cumulative rostership across my team between 115% and 125%.
Updated 11:00 a.m. CT.
- Cordarrelle Patterson
Brandon Bolden- Davante Adams
- DK Metcalf
- Mike Evans
Diontae Johnson- James Washington
- Kyle Pitts
- Dalton Schultz
- Noah Fant
Sunday Morning Update
I don’t always have an update on Sundays, but sometimes my thoughts change after I write this. Check back Sunday to see if anything has changed. Updates are usually posted by 12:45 p.m. ET.
Update 11:00 a.m. CT.
Another stack I am considering is Dak Prescott + Zeke Elliott + CeeDee Lamb. Zeke is an interesting GPP play after last week’s down game and with people gravitating towards the cheap running backs. Lamb’s rostership may be on the lower side with Gallup gaining more steam.
Other players I’ve added to my pool: Dalvin Cook, Marques Valdes-Scantling, James Conner.
Update 11:40 a.m. CT.
If you’re running 3-entry max, I am also warming up to Josh Allen + Coley Beasly + Corey Davis if you’re looking to go more off the board.
Other players I’ve added to my pool: Rhamondre Stevenson, OJ Howard.
If you’re struggling to get a feel for the slate, we also have some optimizer templates in our Lineup Optimizer that you can use to see where the raw projections are leaning:
