The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models, going position-by-position, looking at guys with some of the highest Ceiling Projections, along with players who are standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
Point Guard
Top Ceiling: Stephen Curry vs. Houston Rockets – $10,700 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
After his salary ballooned up, Stephen Curry is back to a reasonable price on DraftKings tonight in a superb matchup against the Houston Rockets. However, he still remains a higher priority on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. Curry and the 7-1 Warriors are off to a fast start, and they should have no trouble with the 1-8 Rockets tonight. Curry has struggled to pay off his salary lately because of blowouts. He has a negative Plus/Minus in four of his last five games.
The blowout concern is real in this matchup as well, with the Warriors being favored by 13 points. However, this matchup is incredibly juicy. The Rockets lead the league in Pace this season, while the Warriors are fourth. This game is going to be an absolute track meet and has the third-highest over/under at 220.5 points.
On FanDuel, Curry seems like too good of value to get away from. However, on DraftKings, even with a lower price tag, I can’t ignore the blowout risk, and it seems like he will be better suited for tournaments. Either way, he is in a fantastic spot tonight and can cook even in three quarters if need be.
Top Value: Davion Mitchell vs. Indiana Pacers – $4,400 DraftKings, $4,800 FanDuel
The price tag has come up on the rookie from Baylor, but Davion Mitchell has been fantastic for the Sacramento Kings lately. Despite playing around the same minutes, Mitchell has had a +10 or higher Plus/Minus on FanDuel in his last three games. He is averaging 16.3 points per game while attempting double-digit field goals in each game during that stretch.
The most intriguing part is that Mitchell, while known for his defense, hasn’t gotten a steal in each of his last four games. I know that is a fluke. The Indiana Pacers rank 24th in allowing opponents to steal the ball this season. Mitchell should have plenty of opportunity for some swipes tonight. De’Aaron Fox is really struggling shooting the ball right now, which has opened up Mitchell to step in and contribute right away.
The price has come up, but I still think Mitchell provides value.
Shooting Guard
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell at Orlando Magic – $9,300 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
From one Mitchell to another, Donovan Mitchell is cooking lately as well. The price for Mitchell on FanDuel has yet to move over the past four games. He has been locked in at $8,000 and has a 97% Bargain Rating. His DraftKings price is the second-highest it has been all season, but with what Mitchell has done lately, it seems very deserved, especially in this matchup. The Orlando Magic rank 27th in Defensive Rating as the Jazz are 10-point road favorites tonight.
Mitchell leads the entire league in usage rate this season. That alone should bump up his price tag. There are plenty of usage hogs in the league, but Mitchell leads them all. In the last four games, Mitchell has averaged 32.8 points per game on 25.8 field goal attempts. He is getting all of the opportunities possible. His assists numbers have up recently as well. Mitchell has had six or more assists in five of his last six games. Mitchell is worth every penny in this spot tonight.
Top Value: Gary Payton II vs. Houston Rockets – $3,500 DraftKings, $5,200 FanDuel
A surprise young player who has been getting playing time and producing at a major level is Gary Payton II. He seems very valuable on DraftKings, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. His price shot up to $5,200 on FanDuel, which is crazy. Payton is averaging a ridiculous 1.74 DraftKings points per minute in his last two games. This potential blowout makes Payton even more intriguing. However, he has played in the first quarter the past two games as well, so he is firmly in the rotation.
Payton is averaging 15.5 points per game, five rebounds per game, and two steals per game in only 17.5 minutes per game. The minutes are a bit scary when looking at his FanDuel price, so I would keep him as a tournament option over there, but on DraftKings, he has plenty of room to exceed his salary. The Pace alone in this game feeds right into Payton’s play style. He has yet to attempt a shot that is between 10-19 feet this season. He does most of his damage in the paint.
Payton is no doubt on the riskier side, but on DraftKings, I do think he is worth it!
Small Forward
Top Ceiling: Paul George vs. Charlotte Hornets – $10,400 DraftKings, $10,800 FanDuel
It is finally time to recommend someone from the game with the highest over/under on the slate at 223 points. That would be forward Paul George for the Los Angeles Clippers. I spoke about Mitchell and his high usage rate; well, George isn’t far behind, ranking fourth in the league with a 34.1% usage rate this season. He leads the Clippers in points, rebounds, assists, and steals. George is the only player in the entire league to lead his team in all four of those categories.
George feels like a very solid spend-up option on DraftKings at $10,400, but I can’t justify his price on FanDuel mainly because he is so close to Antetokounmpo. The Clippers and Hornets both rank in the top five in Pace so far this season. George will have plenty of opportunities to fill up the stat sheet tonight. The Hornets also have the worst Defensive Rating in the entire league.
It’s hard to get away from George at this price, seeing what he has done so far this season.
Top Value: Deni Avdija vs. Milwaukee Bucks – $3,500 DraftKings, $3,900 FanDuel
With so many studs on the slate that we want to pay up for, we need to find some value pieces, even if they are a little riskier. Someone who fits perfectly into that mold is Deni Avdija for the Washington Wizards. The second-year wing from Israel is finally healthy and getting valuable minutes on this Wizards team. He has played 22 or more minutes in four of his last five games. Playing that many minutes and being such a high prospect as Avdija was, you’re going to run into fantasy points.
Avdija has had a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel in seven of the Wizards’ nine games this season. He has provided in multiple categories for the Wizards. With high usage players like Bradley Beal, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Kyle Kuzma there isn’t always field goal attempts to go around, but Avdija has averaged six field goal attempts per game in his last five games. He does most of his damage on the glass with averaging 5.4 rebounds per game: his opponent, the Milwaukee Bucks, rank 24th in rebounding percentage this season.
Avdija is no doubt risky, but the heavy minutes and seeing how active of a player he has been has me very interested in his price tag on both sites tonight. Keep in mind; you play him to fit in the studs!
Power Forward
Top Ceiling: Giannis Antetokounmpo at Washington Wizards – $11,400 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
The most expensive option on the slate tonight is none other than Giannis Antetokounmpo. The struggling Milwaukee Bucks get a matchup against the surprising Washington Wizards. The Bucks have lost four of their last five games but still, come into this game as 3-point favorites. This matchup has the second-highest over/under on the slate at 221.5 points.
Similar to George, Giannis leads the Bucks in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks. He is the only player to lead his team in all four of those categories. He has the third-highest usage rate in the league at 34.2%. Giannis should be able to feast in this matchup as the Wizards have allowed the second-most points in the paint this season. Giannis is second in the league to Domantas Sabonis with 6.1 field goals made per game from less than five feet from the basket.
The way I am treating Giannis and George tonight is by playing Giannis on FanDuel and George on DraftKings.
Top Value: Royce O’Neale at Orlando Magic – $4,100 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel
Another value player who is far from sexy tonight is Royce O’Neale. Similar to Mitchell, this is a great matchup for O’Neale against the Orlando Magic, but for a few different reasons. O’Neale leads the Jazz in steals with 1.9 per game, and he should have a great opportunity for multiple steals again tonight. The Magic have allowed the third-most steals to opponents this season with 9.9 per game. O’Neale went bananas last night against the Miami Heat with six steals.
I do prefer O’Neale more on FanDuel, where they reward steals more, and he has a 76% Bargain Rating. He has a positive Plus/Minus in seven of the nine games on FanDuel this season. His usage rate for the last two games is 15.5% which is quite the jump from his average of 7.4% over the last three games.
Similar to Avdija, O’Neale can contribute in a variety of ways on the court. He is a solid value play on a slate where we are still trying to find those plug-and-play value pieces.
Center
Top Ceiling: Christian Wood at Golden State Warriors – $9,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel
The only Houston Rockets player that really caught my eye tonight was Christian Wood. Certainly, Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green are intriguing, but Wood is the best play on this young Rockets team. Wood is second on the team in usage rate this season at 23.4%, behind only Porter Jr. He is playing very heavy minutes, especially in competitive games. Despite the Rockets being 1-8 this season, they have only lost by over 12 points in just two of those games.
Wood leads the Rockets in points, rebounds, blocks, and minutes this season. He has a double-double in four straight games, where he has averaged 18 points per game and 15.3 rebounds per game. Wood has eclipsed 50 DraftKings points in two out of his last three games. I prefer Wood on FanDuel tonight, where he has a 94% Bargain Rating and is also power forward eligible which is very beneficial.
Center is such an important position tonight as usual, and that flexibility is valuable.
Top Value: Nerlens Noel vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – $4,000 DraftKings, $4,700 FanDuel
My favorite value center on the slate tonight is Nerlens Noel. He is finally back from injury and has ramped up his minutes in the last two games from 18 to 24. The New York Knicks get a matchup tonight against the Twin Towers on the Cleveland Cavaliers in Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. There should be plenty of minutes to go around for Noel tonight against this huge frontcourt. Noel is always active on the defensive end. He ranked third last year in blocks with 2.2 per game.
It is likely that Noel will play around 20-25 minutes, with always the upside for more if the matchup presents itself; he is playing well, and most importantly, is not in foul trouble. Our models project Noel to play just over 21 minutes. What you get with Noel is someone who is a threat for five or more stocks (steals + blocks) any given night and a high percentage shot taker who usually won’t take any shots outside of the paint. I love the value Noel provides tonight.
