Welcome to Week 17!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens
This game checks in with a 46.5 total, which is the seventh-highest total on the slate. Cooper Kupp and Sony Michel project to be two of the highest rostered players on the slate, but after that, rostership falls off.
Matthew Stafford struggled mightily in Week 16, but this is a get-right spot for the Rams’ passing attack. The Ravens’ depleted secondary was torched last week for 525 yards and four touchdowns. If the Ravens throw all their resources at stopping Cooper Kupp, there are plenty of other options on the Rams. Odell Beckham Jr. has four touchdowns in his last five games and is projected to be under 8% rostered. Tyler Higbee is priced down at only $4,000 on DraftKings and makes for a good contrarian option. With Stafford’s lack of rushing upside, I would double stack him.
On the Ravens’ side of the ball is where things get interesting. We appear to be headed toward another Tyler Huntley start. Huntley projects for a modest 5% rostership due to being priced closely to Trey Lance. In Huntley’s last start, he threw for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran for 73 yards and two more touchdowns.
When he drops back to throw the ball, it is likely going to Mark Andrews. Andrews has received 11 and 13 targets in the two starts by Tyler Huntley. The Ravens should be trailing most of the game and forced to throw the ball. Andrews does not project well at his inflated price tag of $7,400, but the ceiling justifies the play.
Andrews has scored 29+ DraftKings points in his past three games and projects for 1% rostership.
My Core Plays
Trey Lance
Jimmy Garoppolo is listed as doubtful with a thumb injury. In his first start of the year, Lance only completed 15/29 passes for 157 yards. He still walked away with 15.6 Draftkings points, thanks to running 16 times for 89 yards. The 49ers have a 28.5 team total, and it is very likely that Lance will score a rushing touchdown. Lance will be the highest owned quarterback on the slate, and rightfully so.
Ronald Jones
Ronald Jones gets a cupcake matchup against the Jets JV team. The Jets have already allowed 26 rushing touchdowns on the year. In his first start, Jones received 20 rushes and three targets. The Buccaneers are tied for the highest total on the slate and are almost two-touchdown favorites. Jones is the fourth highest-rated running back in my model.
Sony Michel
With his paper-mâché backfield mate Darrell Henderson on IR, Sony Michel should receive all the touches he can handle. In Week 16 Michel received 27 rushes and four targets. The Rams have a healthy 26.5 team total and are 5.5-point touchdown favorites. Michel should receive all of the goal-line rushing attempts with no threat from backups Buddy Howell and Jake Funk. Michel is the fifth highest-rated running back in my model.
Cooper Kupp
At this point, it’s starting to feel like my article comes pre-loaded with Cooper Kupp. He is the highest-rated wide receiver in my model. Kupp is coming off his seventh consecutive game of double-digit targets and now gets to take on a Ravens secondary that just gave up over 500 yards passing to the Bengals. At this point, it would be surprising if Kupp didn’t surpass 100 yards and score.
Antonio Brown
In his first game back from an extended absence, AB received a whopping 15 targets, which was good for a 50% target share. He received a slight price bump, but $6,100 is far too cheap for Tom Brady’s No. 1 target. Keep an eye on inactive Sunday morning as both Antonio Brown and Mike Evans are listed as questionable. Antonio Brown projects to be the highest-rostered wide receiver on the slate, so could make for a good tournament fade if reports look like he might be limited.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
St. Brown has quietly been a target monster without T.J. Hockenson. He has received 10 or more targets in four straight games with no less than eight receptions in each of them. He now gets to take on a Seahawks defense allowing the second-most pass attempts per game at 38.3. Tim Boyle does not inspire confidence, but St. Brown was able to thrive in Week 16 against a similarly inept Falcons defense.
Mark Andrews
Look, I get that we are trying to predict the future here. Mark Andrews scoring 29 Draftkings points in the previous three weeks does not guarantee anything for Week 17. He is overpriced based on his projections. He has shown reception/touchdown upside and projects to be only 1% rostership on DraftKings. He is not in play for cash, but another ceiling game would truly separate you from the rest of the field in tournaments.
Run good in Week 17!
