Welcome to Week 16!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Baltimore Ravens (20) at Cincinnati Bengals (24.5)
This game checks in with a modest 44.5 point total, which is good for the third-highest on the slate. It is looking like Lamar Jackson is going to miss another game which will line up Tyler Huntley for another start. Huntley is averaging over eight rushes per game and over six yards per carry, giving him a nice floor and ceiling combination.
When he drops back to throw the ball, he has locked on to Mark Andrews. After back-to-back 30 point games, Andrews was priced up to $7,000 on Draftkings. Due to the price increase, he is projected rostership is sub 10%. Marquise Brown is coming off a 14-target game and is priced at a modest $5,800. However, due to Huntley’s rushing upside, I would likely single stack, Huntley.
The Bengals’ boom/bust offense gets to take on a depleted Ravens secondary. Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase both have slate-breaking upside and project to have a sub 10% rostership. Joe Burrow has flashed upside throughout the year when forced to throw. At sub 5% projected rostership, he makes for a great contrarian play.
My Core Plays
Matthew Stafford
The Rams head to Minnesota with a 26-point team total facing a Vikings defense that is allowing a slate-high Opponent Plus/Minus to the QB position. Stafford has two or more touchdowns in each of his last four games, and he is the highest-rated QB in my model.
Ronald Jones
Ronald Jones will step into the starting running back role in one of the best offenses in football. The Buccaneers are 10-point favorites against an anemic Panthers’ offense. Jones should have plenty of opportunities to run the ball. While he will likely cede most third-down work, Tom Brady targets his running backs at one of the highest rates in the league.
Jones is the highest-rated player in my model and projects to be the highest-rostered running back on the slate.
James Robinson
In the first week without Urban Meyer, Robinson got 18 carries and six targets. He saw a modest price increase on DraftKings. Fortunately for Robinson, he gets to play a Jets defense that is somehow allowing 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game. With Carlos Hyde out, Robinson played 59/70 snaps last week.
If you are reading this article, you could score 10 DraftKings points against the Jets defense.
Cooper Kupp
You probably don’t need to be told to play Cooper Kupp. He is currently the most productive wide receiver in football, on pace to challenge the record for receiving yards in a season. He has received double-digit target games in every game except for one and now gets to take on a Vikings defense that is allowing a slate-high Opponent Plus/Minus.
Play Cooper Kupp.
Justin Jefferson
The Vikings are expected to be without Dalvin Cook (COVID) and Adam Thielen is questionable. In five games without Dalvin Cook, Jefferson has scored 38, 22, 29, 25, and 42 Draftkings points. The Vikings are 3.5-point underdogs suggesting that the passing volume could be high.
Antonio Brown
Chris Godwin is out, Mike Evans is out, and Leonard Fournette is out. Fortunately for Tom Brady, his old friend AB is returning from an ankle injury/suspension. Brown is averaging over 20 Draftkings points per game and priced at only $4,900. Assuming he is in game-shape, he should receive as many targets as he can handle.
Cole Kmet
Cole Kmet is the highest-rated tight end in my model. He gets to face a Seattle defense that is allowing a slate-worst Opponent Plus/Minus. Catching passes from Nick Foles is not ideal, but we often see the backup quarterback target the tight end as a safety valve.
Run good in Week 16!
