Welcome to Week 14!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief, but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Dallas Cowboys (26) at The Washington Football Team (22)
This games checks in with a total of 48 points, which is the third-highest on the slate. The ownership of the pieces in this game are not commensurate with their relative upside. Tony Pollard (foot) and Ezekiel Elliott (knee) are banged up and figure to be ineffective against a Washington front that is allowing 4.1 YPC.
None of the Cowboys’ wide receivers project to be owned more than 10%, and if the Cowboys are forced to throw, they have slate-breaking upside. Michael Gallup and Cedee Lamb are the fifth-and-sixth-highest leverage wide receivers in my model. Dalton Shultz is overpriced but projects to be sub-1% owned for that reason in an offense that could lead the slate in scoring.
On the Washington side of the ball, it is pretty easy. Terry McLaurin offers 30-point upside every week and projects to be under 5% owned. Antonio Gibson received six and seven targets in his last two weeks. While Mckissic was out in Week 13, he was not injured in Week 12 when Gibson had 29 carries and seven receptions. With Logan Thomas out for the year, Ricky Seals-Jones makes his triumphant return as a punt tight end option.
My Core Plays
Taysom Hill
Taysom Hill is probably not a very good real-life quarterback. That does not matter. In his first start of the year, Hill threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns. Oh yeah, he also ran for 101 yards on 11 carries. Hill is the highest-rated quarterback in my model as he takes on a Jets defense who have allowed 30+ points in five of their last seven games. Alvin Kamara will also be replacing Mark Ingram, which should help the offense as a whole.
Austin Ekeler
The Chargers are 10-point home favorites against the Giants, who will be led by some combination of Mike Glennon and/or Jake Fromm. Ekeler has scored double-digit points in every game except for one this year. The Chargers offense will be without Keenan Allen, which should open additional targets for Ekeler. He is the fourth highest-rated running back in my model.
Josh Jacobs
The Raiders are 10-point road underdogs against the Chiefs’ suddenly stout defense. Jacobs will probably get 10-15 carries and manage a paltry 3.0 YPC. Are you interested yet? The real interest here is due to Jacobs’ newly discovered receiving upside. Last week Jacobs had nine receptions on nine targets. Kenyan Drake is on the IR, and Jalen Richard is on the COVID list. Jacobs should receive 100% of the passing work and is likely to see 5+ targets. Jacobs is the third-highest point per dollar projection at the position on DraftKings.
Chris Godwin
Tampa Bay has the second-highest total (28.5) play in the best game environment of the week in a projected shootout against the Buffalo Bills. Since Antonio Brown’s injury in Week 6, Godwin has six or more catches in five of his last six games. Last week he erupted for 15 receptions on 17 targets as Tom Brady ramped up his MVP candidacy. The Bills defense is stout, but look for Brady to aggressively target Chris Godwin in what should be a back and forth scoring affair.
Mike Williams
Keenan Allen is on the COVID list. Although Williams is in the COVID protocol as a close contact, he reportedly has tested negative throughout the week. Allen is vacating 10+ targets a week and will be replaced by some combination of Jalen Guyton/Joshua Palmer. Mike Williams should see a huge target bump without Allen and is a massive value $6,000 on DraftKings. If Williams is eventually ruled out, Guyton and Palmer are both great punt options.
Hunter Renfrow
Renfrow has seven or more receptions in five of his last six games and Darren Waller will not play. In the two games, Waller has missed/left early, Renfrow has 24 catches on 26 targets. Renfroe is not a sexy play but showed off his upside in Weeks 12 and 13, where he scored 20+ Draftkings points without scoring a touchdown. The Raiders should be trailing most of the game against the Chiefs and forced to abandon the run.
Austin Hooper
David Njoku is on the COVID list and Harrison Bryant is out with an ankle injury. Hooper will be the unquestioned No. 1 tight end in an offense without a true No. 1 wide receiver. Hooper is the second-rated tight end in my model and has the highest point per dollar projection.
