Welcome to Week 13!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief, but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Minnesota Vikings (27) at Detroit Lions (19.5)
This game checks in with a modest total of 46.5, which is the fifth-highest total on the slate. This will not come as a shock to anyone, but my love for this game focuses around the Vikings. With Dalvin Cook sidelined and Alexander Mattison priced up, this game will go overlooked as a whole.
In the two games Cook has missed this year, Mattison has 51 rush attempts and 15 receptions.
Kirk Cousins is the fifth highest-rated quarterback in my model but only projects for 4% ownership. He has the second-highest Leverage Rating in my model against a Lions defense that just allowed Andy Dalton to surpass 300 yards on Thanksgiving.
When he throws the ball, you know exactly where it is going with Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. Tyler Conklin will be unowned and has two-plus receptions in every game this year. You are likely relying on a touchdown. In smaller field tournaments, Mattison can be used with Cousins due to his extreme reception upside.
I do not think you NEED to use a bring-back for this stack, but there are several options. Jamaal Williams received 15 carries and five targets last week, and D’Andre Swift will miss again. Josh Reynolds is only $3,400 and is the highest-rated wide receiver in my model.
My Core Plays
Tom Brady
Tampa Bay has the highest total of the slate at 30.5. The last time Brady faced the Falcons, he shredded them for 276 yards and five touchdowns on only 36 pass attempts. While there are some blowout concerns against the Falcons’ inept offense, Brady should see his share of production before waving the white flag. It is unlikely the Buccaneers will score four rushing touchdowns like they did last week.
Jonathan Taylor
I’m not sure I really need to put any stats out here at this point. Jonathan Taylor is the RB1 in fantasy by a landslide and gets to face the hapless Texans. The Colts have a 28-point implied team total and are 10-point favorites. At this point, it would surprising if Taylor scored less than two touchdowns.
Antonio Gibson
The Washington Football Team head to Las Vegas with a 25-point implied team total. J.D. Mckissic has been ruled out with a concussion. Gibson is likely to be the most popular running back on the slate. Against the Seahawks in Week 12, he has 29 carries and seven targets. With McKissic ruled out, Gibson should handle a majority of the passing work. The Raiders are allowing a slate-high Opponent Plus/Minus to running backs.
Chris Godwin
Tampa Bay has the highest total of the week (30), get to play in a dome, and Antonio Brown is out again. Since Antonio Brown’s injury in Week 6, Godwin has had six or more catches in every game until last week against the Colts. Looks for Godwin to get back on track after Fournette had the spotlight in Week 12.
Brandon Aiyuk
Aiyuk started the year in the doghouse — maybe the outhouse — who can be sure with Shanahan. Deebo Samuel will miss this week, making Aiyuk the No. 1 wide receiver against a Seahawks defense that is allowing the most plays per game in the NFL.
Hunter Renfrow
Renfrow has seven or more receptions in four of his last five games. Darren Waller will not play. In the two games Waller has missed/left early, Renfrow has 15 catches on 16 targets. Expect Renfrow to receive plenty of targets against a Washington defense that is easier to beat through the air.
Foster Moreau
Darren Waller will miss Week 13, which means we get to play Foster Moreau at $2,700 instead of $6,000. Against the Philadelphia Eagles, Moreau played 100% of the snaps and caught six of six targets for 60 yards and touchdown. This is as close to a sure thing as you get at the tight end position.
Run good in Week 13!
