Welcome to Week 12!
The entire point of this article is to give you a brief, but comprehensive analysis of my core plays for the main slate. I’ll be giving you what you need but without a 10,000-word article. Expect a lot of concise points, along with data-driven analysis from the extensive suite of analytical fantasy tools in the FantasyLabs Player Models. Oh, and no bullshit.
It’s important to remember that I strictly play smaller-field tournaments on DraftKings such as the Power Sweep, Juke, End Zone, and others.
Overall, my thoughts and analysis will always be geared towards tournaments on DraftKings, not cash games.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Let’s dive in.
My Favorite Overlooked Game Stack
Carolina Panthers (22) vs. Miami Dolphins (20)
This game checks in with the lowest total on the slate, which typically is not good news. The reason I like this game is because we know exactly where the fantasy points are going to come from. In his first start of 2021, Cam Newton completed 21 of 27 passes and rushed 10 times for 46 yards. He was able to complete 77% of his passes in large part due to the short passing game. Newton is the second highest-rated quarterback in my model due to his elite rushing floor/ceiling combination.
When Newton throws the ball, we almost certainly know where the ball is going. DJ Moore received seven targets in week 11, which Christian McCaffrey received eight. I would not double stack with Newton due to his limited pass volume and heavy usage around the goal line.
On the opposite side of the ball, we know exactly where Tua Tagovailoa is going to throw the ball.
Jaylen Waddle has four or more catches in his last six games. Over that same span of games, Mike Gesicki has been receiving a solid seven targets per game. Carolina has a strong defense, but we just saw them get flamed by The Washington Football Team.
My Core Plays
Cam Newton
Newton is the second-highest player in my model against a Miami Dolphins team allowing the second-highest Opponent Plus/Minus on the slate. The days of Newton bombing it down the field may be over, as he has the lowest Intended Air Yards on the slate. Fortunately for Newton, he has playmakers like Christian McCaffrey and DJ Moore who are able to make plays with the ball in their hands.
Throw in his rushing and goal-line role, and Netwon offers a great floor/ceiling combo against a woeful Dolphins defense.
Jonathan Taylor
At this point, I would recommend Jonathan Taylor against the 1985 Chicago Bears. Taylor leads the running back position with 5.15 red-zone opportunities per game, which has resulted in 15 touchdowns through 11 games. The Buccaneers arguably have the best run defense in the NFL, but I’m not sure how much that matters for Taylor. He is the fourth highest-rated running back in my model, despite being the most expensive player and having the toughest matchup. The Colts have a healthy 25-point implied team total and are only three-point underdogs. It is unlikely Taylor gets scripted out of this game.
AJ Dillon
At the time of writing this, Aaron Jones is only practicing in a limited fashion. In Week 11, Dillon has 11 rushes for 53 yards and caught all six of his targets for 44 yards.
While everyone knows Dillon for his rushing ability, what I want to focus on is his receiving. On the year, he has caught 22 of 24 targets for 240 yards. That is an insane 10 yards per target. Austin Ekeler is averaging under seven yards per target. Christian McCaffrey is averaging 8.5 yards per target. The rush stats will likely regress for Dillon, but he has excelled in the receiving game.
Oh, and if Aaron Jones happens to return, DraftKings inexplicably lowered his price to $6,000.
Chris Godwin
Tampa Bay has the highest total of the week (28), get to play in a dome, and Antonio Brown is out again. Since AB’s injury in Week 6, Godwin has had six or more catches in every game. His floor/ceiling combo is unrivaled at a meager $7,000 on DraftKings in a projected shootout of the week.
Mike Evans
Similar to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans has been benefitting from the injury to Antonio Brown. While his targets have fluctuated, his red-zone role is undeniable. Evans has scored six touchdowns in the four games he has played since the Brown injury in Week 6. With the highest total on the slate, expect Evans to get his fair share of touchdown opportunities.
Laviska Shenault
I really did not want to do this. It never feels good to write up a Jaguars player. Especially someone like Shenault, who seems to never get the role the fantasy community thinks he deserves.
It is a leap of faith, but the injury to Jamaal Agnew should open up additional targets for Shenault. He is the fourth highest-rated player in my model and currently has the highest Pts/Sal. This is a bet on talent and opportunity.
Pat Freiermuth
As a rookie, Freiermuth is already looking like one of the league’s elite receiving tight ends. He has received 6+ targets in his last five games and scored four touchdowns in that span. He’s unlikely to have huge yardage game, but he is essentially the No. 2 wide receiver in this offense due to Big Ben’s ability to utilize Chase Claypool’s down-field playmaking ability.
Run good this week!
