NFL Week 9 features a Sunday Night Football contest between the Tennessee Titans and the Los Angeles Rams at 8:20 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups, or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
Matthew Stafford is the most expensive player in this contest, and he’s put together a tremendous season. He’s racked up 22 touchdowns with just four interceptions through his first eight games, and he’s averaged a whopping 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He also leads the league with a 77.7 QBR and has averaged the fourth-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks.
He’ll take the field in a solid spot this week vs. the Titans. They rank just 20th in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and Stafford owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.1 on DraftKings. The Rams are also listed as seven-point home favorites, and Stafford has historically been at his best in that split. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.18 as a home favorite, including a mark of +4.30 in that situation with the Rams (per the Trends tool).
Stafford owns the top Ceiling Projection in our NFL Models, and he should be a popular selection in the Captain and MVP slots.
Most of Stafford’s attention this season has been given to Cooper Kupp. He’s put together a monster year, leading the league with 924 receiving yards and 10 receiving touchdowns. He’s also tied with Tyreek Hill for the most targets per game, and his 63 receptions is just one shy of the league lead.
Unsurprisingly, Kupp dominates the Rams’ pass-catchers in receiving metrics. He’s racked up a whopping 32% target share and 34% air yards share, and he also leads the team in first read share and end zone targets. Those metrics have led to some elite fantasy production, with Kupp scoring at least 26.8 DraftKings points in six of eight games.
Kupp should be able to dominate the Titans’ weak group of cornerbacks. Pro Football Focus gives him the second-largest matchup advantage of the week, and he has a particularly large advantage over slot corner Elijah Molden. Molden has allowed an average of 0.33 fantasy points per route run and a 67% catch rate, and Kupp plays the majority of his snaps in the slot.
Ultimately, Kupp leads the slate in median projection, and he owns one of the better Plus/Minus projections on DraftKings.
A.J. Brown is the Titans’ alpha receiver, and he enters this matchup as questionable. That said, there’s isn’t much doubt that he’ll be able to suit up vs. the Rams. He leads the Titans in virtually every receiving metric this season, and he’s scored at least 30.3 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks.
The Rams present an interesting matchup for Brown. There’s a chance that the Rams choose to use Jalen Ramsey as a shadow corner, and that wouldn’t be great for Brown’s outlook. Still, the Rams rank just 26th in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers this season, and Ramsey has allowed 0.25 fantasy points per route run. That suggests that Brown could still have success in this matchup.
If they don’t shadow Brown, he could have a field day vs. the Rams’ other corners. PFF gives him a sizable advantage vs. David Long Jr. and Dont’e Deayon.
The big news for the Titans is that Derrick Henry will likely be sidelined for the rest of the year, so Ryan Tannehill will have to pick up the slack. That said, his numbers have taken a clear hit with his star teammate off the field:
Ryan Tannehill with Derrick Henry On/Off Field
(Career As Titans Starting QB)ON OFF
Pass att 530 499
Yds/att 9.1 7.5
TD-INT 40-10 25-10
Rating 115.0 95.3
Sack rate 5.4% 8.9% pic.twitter.com/Z4Pjm9G8v2— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 1, 2021
That means that while Tannehill’s volume might be up without Henry, his efficiency could be down.
He’ll face a tough task vs. the Rams, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.7 on DraftKings. It sounds like Von Miller won’t be available to make his debut due to an ankle injury, but he’ll still have to deal with Ramsey and Aaron Donald. Tannehill has also historically struggled as an underdog, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.22 in that split as a member of the Titans.
Quarterbacks are always going to be appealing in the single-game format, and Tannehill’s $9,800 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s also grading out favorably in our Models, leading all players in projected Plus/Minus. Still, I have my doubts about him on this slate.
Midrange
Darrell Henderson has essentially provided stud-like production all season. He’s scored at least 15.7 DraftKings points in six of seven games, and he’s scored at least 22.3 in two of his past three. He’s dominating the carries for the Rams, particularly the high-value touches near the goal line. He has 81% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line this season, despite the fact that he missed one game.
Henderson also provides some value as a pass-catcher. He has 24 targets and 16 receptions in his seven games, and while those aren’t elite numbers, they’re enough to give his stock a slight boost.
Finally, Henderson’s salary has decreased pretty drastically on DraftKings over the past three weeks. He’s been priced as high as $11,000, but he’s down to just $9,200 vs. the Titans. Overall, he’s one of my favorite targets on the slate.
Robert Woods has taken a backseat to Kupp this season, but he’s coming off 20.7 DraftKings points in his last outing. However, that production definitely feels a bit fluky. His numbers were boosted by a rushing touchdown, which is something that is not going to happen on most weeks. His receiving production was pretty mediocre – three catches, 35 yards, one touchdown – which has been a theme for Woods all year. He has just one game with greater than 70 receiving yards.
The Titans’ RB situation will be interesting to monitor in this contest. There is obviously plenty of work available with Henry out of the lineup, but it remains to be seen how the touches will be split.
Jeremy McNichols has served as the Titans’ receiving back this year, and he should see a boost in rushing opportunities. However, he’s been priced up like he’s going to be the Titans’ feature back in this matchup, and that doesn’t feel like it will happen. The Rams are a middling matchup for running backs, but McNichols seems overpriced on DraftKings. If you’re going to play him, do it on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 91%.
Julio Jones has missed three of the past five games for the Titans, but he was removed from the injury report before this week’s game. That means he should be a full go. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee that leads to any fantasy success. He’s scored 8.9 DraftKings points or fewer in four of five games this season, with the lone exception coming in Week 2 vs. the Seahawks. Jones is always going to have some appeal given his track record, but he also seems overpriced across the industry.
Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee round out the Rams’ passing attack, and both players have provided value this season. Jefferson has scored at least 11.8 DraftKings points in back-to-back weeks, and he should see a boost in value following the release of DeSean Jackson. Jefferson also ranks second on the team in air yards, so he has some big-play appeal.
Higbee hasn’t been quite as productive recently, but he continues to play on nearly all of the Rams’ offensive snaps. He’s also seen at least five targets in four of the past six games. The only thing he really hasn’t done this season is score touchdowns, so he could be a positive regression candidate moving forward.
Quick Hits
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Geoff Swaim ($3,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): The Titans have three tight ends, which is extremely annoying for a single-game slate. Swaim led the group with 57 snaps last week and saw five targets, so he seems like the best target.
- Adrian Peterson ($3,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Peterson just signed with the team this week, but he figures to serve as the Titans’ between-the-tackles grinder. It remains to be seen what he has left in the tank, but he’s a good bet to lead the team in carries. That makes him appealing at his current price tag.
- Sony Michel ($2,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Michel has a role for the Rams, and he’s seen nine carries in two of the past three weeks. Unfortunately, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just one of eight contests this season.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($2,200 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Westbrook-Ikhine is the Titans’ No. 3 receiver, and he’s played between 23 and 29 snaps each of the past three weeks. He could have some value.
- Chester Rogers ($1,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Rogers is also in the mix for the Titans, but he’s been less involved than NWI.
- Anthony Firkser ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Firkser has been the Titans No. 3 TE in terms of snaps recently. He has some receiving upside, but the other two options seem like better bets to return value.
- MyCole Pruitt ($1,200 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Pruitt is the final Titans TE, and he’s played at least 35 snaps the past two weeks.
- Marcus Johnson ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Johnson actually saw more snaps and targets than Westbrook-Ikhine last week, so he’s an interesting punt play on DraftKings. That said, the return of Julio could eat into his playing time.
- D’Onta Foreman ($200 on DraftKings): If you want to really get weird with the Titans’ backfield, Foreman is your guy. There’s a chance he could factor into the equation if Peterson is not fully up to speed this week.
