Saturday’s NFL slate wraps up with a matchup between the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
And don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Studs
Josh Allen is the most expensive player in this contest, and no one on either of these squads can really match his upside. His ceiling projection is the top mark in our NFL Models by more than 10 points, and only two players are within even 15. He possesses an elite dual-threat skill set, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points in bunches with both his arm and his legs.
Allen also enters this contest in excellent recent form. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, including two games with at least 33.96 DraftKings points. One of those came against the Patriots, who he torched for 314 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and three passing touchdowns.
Still, there are some concerns with Allen on this slate. Despite his previous success vs. the Patriots, they remain one of the toughest possible matchups for opposing QBs. They rank third in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and Allen’s Opponent Plus/Minus of -5.6 is the worst mark on the slate.
The weather is an even larger concern. Allen struggled mightily in his first game vs. the Patriots this season, which was played in gale-force winds. Tonight’s contest isn’t expected to be that windy, but it will be freezing cold. The current forecast has the temperature at four degrees during game time, and it’s going to feel like it’s below zero with the wind chill. Allen has played in just two games below 27 degrees, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.06 in those contests (per the Trends tool).
It is worth noting that Allen scored at least 21.8 DraftKings points in each of those games. While that isn’t quite enough to pay off his steep price tag, that would still put him in contention to be the highest scoring player on the slate. Overall, the weather and matchup are not enough to scare me off Allen.
Stefon Diggs should serve as Allen’s top target. He hasn’t been quite as busy as he was last year – he saw two fewer targets despite playing an additional game – but he has seen his role grow down the stretch. He’s racked up at least 13 targets in three of his past five games, which is elite volume. Overall, Diggs easily leads the Bills’ pass catchers in virtually every metric, including target share, air yards share, red zone share, and end zone targets.
Unfortunately, Diggs will have to deal with the same tough matchup as Allen. The Patriots rank second in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, and they employ one of the best corners in football in J.C. Jackson. Unlike most corners, Jackson plays all over the Patriots’ defensive formation, so it seems likely that he’ll shadow Diggs in this contest.
Still, Diggs has proven that he can win vs. Jackson in the past. He racked up seven catches for 85 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting, and he torched the Patriots in their two matchups last year. It’s also possible that his matchup results in reduced ownership, making him an interesting target.
The Patriots don’t possess nearly the same offensive firepower as the Bills, and they’re also at a disadvantage from a Vegas perspective. The Patriots are listed as five-point underdogs, and they’re currently implied for just 19.25 points.
When they’re at their best, the Patriots are one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. They ran the ball at the sixth-highest frequency this season. Damien Harris leads their rushing attack, and he had two monster performances vs. the Bills this season. He ultimately racked up 28 carries for 214 yards and four touchdowns between the two games, resulting in 51.4 total DraftKings points.
Still, Harris feels very risky on this slate. The Bills’ defense has been solid against the run this season, ranking 11th in rush defense DVOA, and the game script is not ideal for Harris as an underdog. Harris doesn’t provide much as a pass-catcher, so he has some bust potential if the Patriots fall behind. He owns the worst projected Plus/Minus among the stud tier by a sizable margin.
Midrange
Devin Singletary started the year in a committee, but he has emerged as the Bills’ unquestioned feature back. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past five games, and he’s racked up at least 19 carries in three of his past four. He’s also coming off back-to-back games with at least 25.2 DraftKings points.
The only real issue with Singletary is his price tag. He’s gotten very expensive across the industry, but he still has the potential to pay off his salary. He ranks third in our NFL Models in terms of median projection.
Is Mac Jones any good? I’m still not sure, which feels weird to say about a quarterback who led his team to the playoffs in his rookie year. He’s more of a game manager than a gunslinger at this point in his career, and he’s provided minimal fantasy value. He’s scored more than 12.84 DraftKings points in just three of his past seven outings, and one of those games was against the Jaguars. Jones has been a disastrous fantasy quarterback in his two meetings vs. the Bills, tallying just 7.56 total fantasy points.
Still, Jones is a quarterback, and quarterbacks are almost always viable targets in the single-game format. The Patriots could also be forced to throw the ball a bit more than usual, giving Jones a decent ceiling for his price tag.
When Jones does take to the air, expect Jakobi Meyers to be his preferred target. Meyers has racked up 126 targets this season, which is the top mark on the squad by a sizable margin. He also leads the team with a 28% air yards share, so he’s been their clear alpha receiver. The only thing he hasn’t done is score touchdowns – he has just two on the year – which has kept his fantasy production modest.
Meyer’s lack of scoring upside makes him a high-floor, low-ceiling type of play. I’m most interested in using him as a part of Patriots’ stacks, especially given his +0.56 correlation with Jones.
Dawson Knox and Cole Beasley should serve as secondary pass-catchers for the Bills. Knox has had a big season, especially when it comes to scoring touchdowns, but he’s finished with five targets or fewer in four straight games. Still, he continues to play on virtually every snap for the Bills, and his price tag has come down considerably. He’s a strong buy-low candidate.
Beasley is a bit tougher to make a case for. He thrives in the short area of the field, so he does his damage with catches more than with yards are touchdowns. That means he needs plenty of targets to potentially return value, and that just hasn’t been the case of late. He did have 11 targets vs. the Buccaneers, but he’s had six games with six targets or fewer over his past eight contests.
Hunter Henry has been a touchdown-scorer extraordinaire for the Pats this season. He’s caught nine of the Patriots’ 24 passing touchdowns, and he’s accounted for 47% of the Patriots receiving touchdowns in the red zone. Unsurprisingly, Henry leads the team in red zone targets, making him a legit threat to score vs. the Bills. He’s also seen a bit more work between the 20s recently, logging at least six targets in three of his past four games.
Emmanuel Sanders has missed the past two games for the Bills, and it’s tough to know what his role will be in this contest. He could operate opposite of Stefon Diggs, but it’s also possible that Gabe Davis has leaped him on the depth chart. That uncertainty makes Sanders a poor bet at $5,600 on DraftKings, but he’s worth some consideration at $8,000 on FanDuel.
Kendrick Bourne has posted a negative Plus/Minus in five straight games, which makes sense given Jones’ recent struggles. Those two players own a correlation of +0.74, so Bourne tends to thrive in the same games as his quarterback. That makes him a vital member of Patriots’ stacks, especially since he shouldn’t command much ownership.
Rhamondre Stevenson has served as the 1B to Harris’ 1A in the Patriots’ backfield. Unfortunately, that role doesn’t carry much value. He’s scored 8.5 DraftKings points or fewer in five of his past six games, and the lone exception was against the lowly Jaguars. Stevenson has some home run hitting ability, but he’s not really viable unless you think the Pats will dominate this game on the ground. In that situation, pairing Harris and Stevenson together is actually an interesting option, especially since both players have been positively correlated this season.
Values & Punts
- Defenses and Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate your lineups around them.
- Brandon Bolden ($4,600 on DraftKings, $10,000 on FanDuel): Bolden is the Patriots’ best pass-catching running back, and that role could have some value if they fall behind. He’s a bit more expensive than I would’ve hoped, but he has a path to value.
- Gabriel Davis ($4,400 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel): Davis stands out as one of the best pure values in this price range on DraftKings, which should make him a popular target. He’s played on at least 63 snaps in four straight games, and anyone on the field that much has value when they catch passes from Allen.
- Nelson Agholor ($2,600 on DraftKings, $7,500 on FanDuel): Agholor ranks second on the Patriots in air yards, so he has some upside if he can catch a long pass. Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened very often this season.
- Zack Moss ($2,000 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Moss has had a rollercoaster of a season, spending time as a healthy scratch and the Bills’ starting RB. He’s operating as the clear backup behind Singletary at the moment, and he should see a handful of touches.
- Isaiah McKenzie ($1,600 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): McKenzie exploded for 11 catches, 125 yards, and a touchdown in his last game vs. the Pats, but the Bills were extremely thin at receiver in that contest. Since then, He’s played on 24 snaps or fewer in back-to-back weeks, and he’s garnered just three total targets.
- Jonnu Smith ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Smith was one of the Patriots’ significant free agent acquisitions, but he has been essentially a non-factor of late. He has just one total target over his past three games. Still, he will be on the field, which at least gives him a chance to find the stat sheet.
