Thursday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Ja Morant has been rolling recently. He’s scored at least 48.25 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 34.4% in four of them. He’s increased his production to 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark at the position by a sizable margin.
The Grizzlies are also expected to be shorthanded on Thursday. Desmond Bane and Kyle Anderson are doubtful, while Dillon Brooks and De’Anthony Melton are questionable. That means Morant could be looking at a few additional shot attempts.
Morant is an elite target on DraftKings, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Value
The Suns are another team with plenty of minutes available on Thursday. They have seven players listed out on their injury report, so Cameron Payne could be asked to play a few additional minutes. Payne has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of doing damage quickly. He doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his $4,400 salary.
Fast Break
Killian Hayes isn’t nearly the same producer as Payne on a per-minute basis – he’s averaged just 0.72 DraftKings points per minute this season – but he’s dirt cheap at just $3,400. He’s also projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models, which is an excellent combination. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.62 (per the Trends tool).
Cade Cunningham stands out as one of the best pure values on FanDuel. His $6,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he was priced as high as $7,900 before his stint in health and safety protocols. Cunningham has plenty of upside at that price tag, and he’s averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Devin Booker is another player who has been playing well recently. He’s increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate at the shooting guard position. He also racked up 50.75 DraftKings points in his last outing despite being limited to just 32.1 minutes. The Suns own the second-highest implied team total on the slate at 115.5 points, and only two of Thursday’s squads are implied for more than 107.5. That makes them an excellent team to get some exposure to.
Value
There’s a chance that Steph Curry has to sit out tonight for the Warriors. They’ve yet to release their injury report for Thursday’s matchup vs. the Pelicans, but Curry told reporters after the game that he was “not optimistic” after suffering a quad injury on Wednesday.
That would be a massive blow for the Warriors’ offense, but it would be great for Jordan Poole’s fantasy prospects. He’s seen a team-high +6.6% usage bump with Curry off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. Poole excelled in place of Curry last season, so he would be very appealing if Curry is out of the lineup on Thursday.
Fast Break
Gary Payton II is another player who figures to benefit from Curry’s likely absence. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer this season, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. The only thing that has been able to slow him down this season has been a lack of playing time, but his minutes should be solidified if Curry is out.
Terance Mann is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, finishing with just 13.7 FanDuel points over 24.6 minutes. However, he had played at least 33.7 minutes in each of his previous three games, and he scored at least 24.6 FanDuel points in each of those contests. That makes him a reasonable bounce-back target at $5,000 on FanDuel, albeit in a tough matchup vs. the Suns.
Small Forward
Stud
Is there a more underappreciated fantasy basketball player than Josh Hart? He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.90 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his salary has remained very reasonable at just $6,400. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 37.2 minutes in back-to-back games. There’s no reason to stop riding Hart now, especially given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Cameron Johnson is a cheap way to get some exposure to the Suns on Thursday. He’s priced at just $5,300, and he’s increased his production to 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a nice spike in playing time given all their absences in the frontcourt. Johnson has racked up at least 34 minutes in three of his past five games, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.
Fast Break
Alec Burks has seen a sizable price decrease recently. He’s down to just $5,900 on DraftKings, and he was priced as high as $7,800 last month. Burks went through a stretch where he saw a decrease in playing time, but that appears to be over. He’s coming off 35.6 minutes in his last game, and the Knicks are without Derrick Rose and Kemba Walker. Burks is undoubtedly too cheap if he continues to see that much playing time.
Nicolas Batum is currently questionable for the Clippers, and he’s tough to trust even if he does suit up. However, he’s an interesting punt play at just $3,600 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he should command virtually no ownership.
Power Forward
Stud
There aren’t many genuine “studs” worth considering on Thursday’s slate, which means Jayson Tatum should garner plenty of attention. He returned to the lineup on Wednesday following a four-game absence, and the Celtics wasted no time throwing him back into the fire. He logged 37.5 minutes in his first game back, and Tatum has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a reasonable option at $9,800 on DraftKings.
Value
Marcus Morris will have to do a lot of heavy lifting for the Clippers with Paul George sidelined. He’s increased his production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s logged at least 37.7 minutes in two of his past three games. The exception was his last game, where Morris was limited to just 24.2 minutes in a blowout loss. That caused his price to drop by -$400 on DraftKings, and his $5,600 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s an excellent buy-low target.
Fast Break
Jalen Smith ended up playing just 16.3 minutes in his last game, but he dealt with a combination of foul trouble and a head injury. Bismack Biyombo also proved capable off the bench. Still, Smith has averaged a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need much playing time to smash his current price tag. He’s currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models, which is more than enough.
Jaren Jackson Jr. continues to drive fantasy players crazy. He just can’t help but get into foul trouble on a seemingly nightly basis, which often limits him to less than 30 minutes of playing time. Still, his upside at $6,100 on DraftKings is undeniable. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has an excellent ceiling when things break in his favor.
Center
Stud
Jonas Valanciunas is another player worthy of the “stud” designation. He’s coming off 35.4 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 48.0 DraftKings points. Valanciunas is one of the best centers in the league on a per-minute basis, averaging 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season.
He has a tough matchup vs. the Warriors, but Valanciunas is an elite value on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
Brandon Clarke stands out as an excellent source of value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,400, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Clarke has massively exceeded expectations in three straight games. He’s scored at least 27.75 DraftKings points in each of them, and he’s racked up at least 32.25 in two. Clarke doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but he’s made up for it by averaging at elite 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Taj Gibson doesn’t bring much to the table from a fantasy perspective, but he’s super cheap at just $3,200 on DraftKings. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes, which is a healthy amount of playing time for someone with such a reasonable salary. Historically, players with comparable price tags and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.62.
Finally, Steven Adams has been a nice source of value on FanDuel recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.96 over his past 10 games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six. He’s worth some consideration in a strong matchup vs. the Pistons.
Photo Credit: Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant
