Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
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This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target in the 14th week of the 2021 NFL season.
Quarterback Target
Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK, $7,700 FD)
Taysom Hill may have thrown four interceptions against Dallas in Week 13, but he did produce the overall QB4 performance. The rushing upside with Hill maintains an incredibly high floor, as evidenced by his 101 rushing yards against the Cowboys. There is a concern about an injury to the finger on Hill’s throwing hand, but that should also help lower exposure.
In his four games as a starting quarterback last season, Hill was a dominant fantasy producer.
The Jets allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, including the overall QB10 performance last week to a less-mobile Gardner Minshew.
Hill is still an incredible value as the QB13 on DraftKings and as the centerpiece of a limited New Orleans offense. Carrying a high rushing upside, he is great DFS play with proven Top 5 positional DFS upside.
Quarterback Fade
Dak Prescott ($6,700 DK, $8,100 FD)
Dak Prescott has a talented roster and top five positional upside but finds himself in a challenging spot against a vastly improved Washington defense. Ron Rivera’s defense has allowed 21 points or fewer in each of the past five games. Washington has earned consecutive home wins against Tampa Bay and Seattle and held Dallas to 16 points and three points in their two games last year.
The Cowboys are dealing with a lingering injury to Ezekiel Elliott and have a limited upside in a NFC East rivalry game against Washington. I like the Dallas offense but don’t see Prescott paying off as the sixth-most expensive quarterback on DraftKings and the fifth-most expensive quarterback play on FanDuel.
Running Back Target
Javonte Williams ($5,900 DK, $6,700 FD)
The long-awaited Javonte Williams breakout happened in Week 13.
It was real and fantastic.
Williams provided the overall RB1 performance with six receptions (on nine targets), 178 total yards, and a touchdown. Melvin Gordon missed last week with a hip injury but certainly will want to return as soon as possible to avoid another Williams explosion. Denver returns home to face a Lions team that allows the third-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing running backs (4for4).
Williams has a fantastic three-down skillset, tallying a 73% college target share while at North Carolina (PlayerProfiler). It is a perfect matchup against Detroit team coming off their first win of the season. With the Broncos an eight-point favorite, this is a perfect scenario for a low-cost DFS running back with huge upside.
Running Back Fade
Joe Mixon ($7,700 DK, $8,500 FD)
Joe Mixon left last week’s game with a neck injury, which puts his availability and effectiveness in doubt. The Bengals also have a difficult matchup with a San Francisco team that has allowed less than 1000 rushing yards total this season.
Mixon is in the midst of a career year, tallying four straight weeks of overall RB4 or better production prior to Week 13. This has led to his Week 14 cost, which is simply too high. We have Mixon rated well below the top FanDuel running back plays this week, projected around players with much less production this season.
I am fading Mixon against San Francisco this week.
Wide Receiver Target
Mike Williams ($6,000 DK, $6,900 FD)
We’ve started to see the early-season Mike Williams return to form, with six or more targets in each of the past four weeks. Williams crested 100 receiving yards last week against Cincinnati for the first time since Week 5, with 110 total yards and the overall WR20 performance.
This week, he returns home to face a Giants defense that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The unknown variable is the availability of wideout Keenan Allen, who was placed on the COVID list this week.
New York has been particularly vulnerable to opposing No. 2 wideouts, ranking 24th in DVOA, per FootballOutsiders. If Allen plays, Williams’ upside may actually be higher. Williams was also placed on the COVID-list as a close contact but could be eligible to play on Sunday since he has not actually tested positive.
If Williams is out, he isn’t an option. But if he plays without Allen, this could be a Week 14 DFS steal at a reasonable price.
Wide Receiver Fade
CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DK, $7,800 FD)
DFS players need to understand one basic concept: CeeDee Lamb is not worth a WR1 DFS cost.
Despite his superior talent and position in an explosive offense, quarterback Dak Prescott continues to spread the ball around to multiple receivers. Lamb has produced just three PPR top 12 WR performances this season and has five weeks outside the top 20 wideouts. He is the fifth-highest-priced wide receiver on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. I can’t justify paying this price and hoping for a ceiling game from Lamb.
Washington’s defense has dramatically improved and has held Lamb to just 2.5 receptions and 10.5 receiving yards per game last season. While those games were without Dak Prescott at quarterback, the familiarity and rivalry with Washington should temper expectations.
I prefer lower-priced options such as Terry McLaurin, Mike Williams, and Brandon Aiyuk.
Tight End Target
Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,600 DK, $4,500 FD)
With the news that Washington tight end Logan Thomas was placed on injured reserve (knee), Ricky Seals-Jones becomes a sneaky under-the-radar DFS play in Week 14. Seal-Jones returns after missing the last three weeks with a hip injury, which could keep his rostership lower coming off an injury.
In a three-game stretch as the starting tight end, Seals-Jones finished as the overall TE14, TE6, and TE10. He ran at least 34 routes in all three games and now faces a Dallas team that has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends.
Injuries often create value, and as a result of the late-week Logan Thomas news, Seals-Jones is one of the best values on the Week 14 Sunday slate.
