Week 11 brings us just two bye-week teams: Denver and the Los Angeles Rams.
Each week, I will bring you an early look at which players to target and fade for the upcoming Sunday DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. I’ll do this by using our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models.
Keep in mind that a lot can change between now and when lineups lock. Our Player Models update in real-time to help make quick lineup decisions before rosters lock.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
This is a wonderful time of year, so let’s take a deep dive into which players to target in the 11th week of the 2021 NFL season.
Cam Newton ($5,100 DK, $7,500 FD)
Cam is back in Carolina, and we are buying in for Week 11 if he starts. The Panthers offense returned to its early-season form with a full cabinet of weapons, including Christian McCaffrey. The pass-catching extraordinaire turned a limited 58.6% snap share into 10 receptions, 161 total yards, and the overall RB4 performance.
Newton produced two touchdowns in limited work and will again be under center as one of the most dangerous two-way quarterbacks in the league. Washington allows the most scheduled-adjusted fantasy points (4for4) to opposing quarterbacks this season. Cam is a risk with an 8.3-point floor in our DFS Tournament Model, but his 29.5 point Ceiling Projection makes him one of our our top-rated quarterback on DraftKings.
As the No. 21 priced quarterback on DraftKings, I strongly encourage you to take advantage of a DFS value that won’t exist after Week 11.
Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK, $7,700 FD)
I’m a big believer in the Vikings this week and their underrated pass defense giving Aaron Rodgers major trouble. Minnesota ranks sixth-best in pass defense DVOA per FootballOutsiders, and just held Chargers starting quarterback Justin Herbert to 195 passing yards in the Vikings big 27-20 road win last Sunday. Since 2017, Rodgers has only averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game at Minnesota, a full 10 points below his overall average during that time.
Without trusted pass-catcher Aaron Jones as a safety valve out of the backfield, I don’t expect Rodgers to justify his high Week 11 price. I prefer lower-priced options such as Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, and even Kirk Cousins.
Running Back Target
Darrel Williams ($5,400 DK, $6,300 FD)
Williams exploded on Sunday night, producing the overall RB1 performance with nine receptions, 144 total yards, and a touchdown. His price for Week 11 was listed prior to the completion of the Chiefs win, producing a hidden value on the Sunday slate.
We certainly want representation in this headline battle between Kansas City and Dallas, a game that carries a 55.5 point over/under. While many will focus on Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce, I’m grabbing Williams at this reduced price.
Running Back Fade
Jonathan Taylor ($8,300 DK, $8,800 FD)
I love Jonathan Taylor, just not this week at Buffalo. The Bills defense is one of the NFL’s best, especially against elite offensive rushers. The Bills rank fourth-stingiest in schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing RBs. With the exception of Derrick Henry’s staggering 143-yard performance in Week 6, Buffalo has shut down the opposing rusher throughout the season.
- Week 1: Najee Harris (16 carries, 45 yards)
- Week 2: Miles Gaskin (5 carries, 25 yards)
- Week 3: Antonio Gibson (12 carries, 31 yards)
- Week 4: Mark Ingram (6 carries, 24 yards)
- Week 5: Darrel Williams (5 carries, 27 yards)
- Week 6: Derrick Henry
- Week 7: BYE
- Week 8: Miles Gaskin (12 carries, 36 yards)
- Week 9: Carlos Hyde (21 carries, 67 yards)
- Week 10: Michael Carter (16 carries, 39 yards)
Taylor has been fantastic this season, sitting as the overall RB2 in fantasy points per game. But in this matchup, as the second-highest priced back on both sites, I’m out on Taylor in DFS.
Wide Receiver Target
Quez Watkins ($3,700 DK, $5,300 FD)
Quez Watkins is popping as a great Week 11 play as a product of injury opportunities. Tight end Dallas Goedert is in concussion protocol, which opens the door for the speedy Watkins to post quality DFS production. Watkins saw six targets and tallied his most receptions of the season (four) on a 80% snap share in a challenging matchup against Denver CB Kyle Fuller. Watkins is more of a play on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
Philadelphia hosts a New Orleans defense that will certainly focus on limiting dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver DeVonta Smith. Watkins simply needs to get free for one big play to pay off his bottom-barrel price tag.
Wide Receiver Fade
Deebo Samuel ($7,800 DK, $7,600 FD)
It may seem crazy to fade Deebo Samuel, especially coming off the overall WR1 performance in Week 10. However, the Jacksonville pass defense has been much improved over the past few weeks, and this DFS price tag is too high on the road against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville has the upset of the season with a 9-6 win over Buffalo at home in Week 9. In that game, wide receiver Stefon Diggs has limited until Buffalo went full passing attack to try and avoid the upset. Last week at Indianapolis, wide receiver Michael Pittman produced a solid but unspectacular five-reception, 71 receiving yard performance as the Colts held off a late-game Jaguars rally.
Samuel should produce a similar line in Week 11, but that won’t be good enough to justify his fifth-highest DraftKings price or his seventh-highest FanDuel price.
Jacksonville’s defensive metrics aren’t great, but that is skewed by their terrible start to the season. If the Jaguars can hold Buffalo’s Josh Allen to 264 passing yards, zero touchdowns, with two interceptions, they will certainly rattle San Francisco quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
I expect a Samuel performance similar to the 5/63 line he posted at Arizona in Week 9. I’m fading him against Jacksonville, with a projected “good but not great” game.
Tight End Target
Adam Trautman ($3,300 DK, $4,800 FD)
Another week, another tight end value.
With tight end being such a shallow position, most DFS players use a “high or low” price strategy. I prefer to save at the position and will be targeting Adam Trautman as a high-usage, low-cost option.
Trautman has run at least 22 routes in each of the past four weeks and has six or more receptions in three consecutive games. He tallied a season-high five receptions last week against Tennessee and now faces a Philadelphia defense that has allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
On a New Orleans team with a limited receiving core, Trautman’s 11.05 (94th percentile) Agility Score is a huge weapon. With running back Alvin Kamara’s status still unknown, I love Trautman as a low-cost, high-upside tight end DFS play for Week 11.