Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup featuring the Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints at 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC.
Cash Game Strategy
Alvin Kamara, Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and Michael Thomas have the four top median projections in our DraftKings Showdown Models. The only way to make all four fit is to put Thomas in the Captain spot and then punt the last two spots with players who combine to cost no more than $1,600. The top combo for those spots is Blake Jarwin ($1,000), who has run a route on 31% of Prescott’s dropbacks, and Austin Carr ($200), who ran 19 routes last week and will serve as the Saints’ No. 3 wideout with Tre’Quan Smith (ankle) out and Keith Kirkwood (hamstring) on IR.
Photo credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) and running back Ezekiel Elliott (21)
On FanDuel, Prescott has the top median projection, followed by Kamara and Elliott, and then there’s a drop-off before Teddy Bridgewater and Thomas. Pricing doesn’t allow for pairing Kamara-Prescott-Zeke with one of Bridgewater/Thomas, so the best move is to pair them with Ted Ginn and one of my favorite fantasy buy-lows, Jared Cook, in order to capture as much of the Saints passing game as possible.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
RB Alvin Kamara, Saints: Averaging 21.3 touches for 141.3 yards and 1.15 total TDs in seven career regular-season games without Mark Ingram and facing a Cowboys defense that is ranked 23rd in Pro Football Focus’ team run defense grades.
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: Averaging 24.1 touches for 127.6 yards and 0.95 total TDs in 20 career road games and facing a Saints defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per carry to opposing running backs.
WR Amari Cooper, Cowboys: Will likely contend with shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, but posted 8-75-0 on eight targets in this matchup last November.
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Amari Cooper (19)
WR Michael Thomas, Saints: Dipped to seven targets in Bridgewater’s first start after averaging 9.1 in his career with Brees starting, but still posted a 5-54-1 line. This is still a decent spot for Thomas, as he averaging 0.4 more receptions and 14.0 more yards per game in his career when the Saints are underdogs.
WR Randall Cobb, Cowboys: Averaging an underwhelming 3.7 catches per game but will match up with P.J. Williams, who has the lowest PFF grade among Saints cornerbacks through three weeks (56.0, 68th).
Correlations/Stacks
Individual player correlations are from the past 12 months and can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard.
Cowboys
- Prescott-Cooper +0.44
- Cowboys QB-WR2 +0.42
- Elliott-Maher +0.33
- Cowboys WR1-WR2 +0.26
- Cowboys RB1-Opposing QB +0.25
- Cooper-Maher +0.23
- Elliott-Cooper +0.17
- Cowboys QB-Opposing QB +0.15
- Prescott-Maher +0.13
- Cowboys QB-TE1 +0.05
- Prescott-Elliott +0.02
- Elliott-Cowboys D/ST -0.02
- Prescott-Cowboys D/ST -0.11
- Cowboys RB1-RB2 -0.17
- Cowboys RB1-TE1 -0.31
On the Cowboys side, the correlation data tells to build around Prescott-Cooper stacks, and that kicker Brett Maher is a better filler play than Cowboys D/ST. Additionally, Jason Witten is unlikely to score outside of the red zone, so he is the most likely player to put a dent into Elliott’s scoring, making those two a pairing to potentially avoid together.
Saints
- Saints QB-RB2 +0.52
- Saints RB1-Opposing RB1 +0.46
- Thomas-Ginn +0.43
- Saints RB1-Opposing QB +0.33
- Saints WR1-TE1 +0.29
- Kamara-Lutz +0.27
- Thomas-Lutz +0.24
- Saints QB-TE1 +0.23
- Saints QB-RB1 +0.16
- Saints QB-Opposing QB +0.14
- Kamara-Thomas +0.13
- Saints WR2-TE1 +0.09
- Saints RB1-RB2 -0.06
- Kamara-Saints DST -0.10
- Kamara-Ginn -0.12
- Thomas-Saints DST -0.43
The numbers are in favor of pairing Kamara and Elliott, which is a route most of the field will go regardless. In the passing game, Thomas-Ginn is the top option, followed by Thomas-Cook. Like Maher for the Cowboys, Wil Lutz is a better lineup filler than Saints D/ST.
Leverage
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Latavius Murray, Saints: Has eight touches for 26 scoreless yards in Weeks 2-3, but parlayed eight touches into 47 yards and a TD in Week 1.
RB Tony Pollard, Cowboys: Has played 22, 16 and 23 snaps in Weeks 1-3, respectively, and would stand to see increased usage in the event of a blowout.
QB Taysom Hill, Saints: Averaging 2.0 targets and 1.0 rushing attempts this season and is also liable to take QB snaps away from Bridgewater.
Photo credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7)
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- TE Jason Witten, Cowboys: At least three catches, one red zone target and either 50-plus yards or a TD in each of his first three games since returning from a one-year hiatus.
- WR Devin Smith, Cowboys: Third on the Cowboys in air yards (124) and playing the Michael Gallup role.
- WR Ted Ginn, Saints: Averaging 3.2-43-0.20 since the start of last season.
- TE Jared Cook, Saints: Tied for third on the Saints in targets (12), and Dallas has allowed the seventh-most targets to opposing tight ends (27).
- WR Austin Carr, Saints: Ran a route on 56% of Bridgewater’s dropbacks last week as the Saints’ temporary WR3.
- TE Blake Jarwin, Cowboys: As mentioned above, has run a route on roughly one-third of Prescott’s dropbacks.
- TE Josh Hill, Saints: Ran a route on 36% of Bridgewater’s dropbacks last week.
- WR Tavon Austin, Cowboys: Played 25-of-68 (37%) snaps, ran seven routes and was targeted once in Week 1 before missing the past two weeks with an injury.
- FB Zach Line, Saints: Has played between 10-21 snaps each week and is averaging 0.10 TDs per game in 31 career games as a Saint.
- WR Deonte Harris, Saints: Rookie speedster who has handled all nine of the Saints’ punt returns, scoring once, as well as four of their five kickoff returns.
- WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Saints: Ran five routes last week.
- FB Jamize Olawale, Cowboys: Playing 11.0 snaps per week but has one target and zero rushing attempts.
- TE Dalton Schultz, Cowboys: Has run just three routes this season despite playing 26 offensive snaps.
- WR Cedrick Wilson, Cowboys: Ran five routes last week but may not see snaps on offense with Austin expected back.
- RB Dwayne Washington, Saints: Yet to play a snap on offense this season.
