College Football DFS Breakdown (Sat. 8/24): Target Arizona-Hawaii Wide Receivers

Week 0 of the college football season is just hours away, and both DraftKings and FanDuel have brought back college football DFS for 2019.

The action starts tonight at 7:00 p.m. ET with two FBS games on either site:

Miami vs. Florida (-7), Over/Under: 46.5 – 7 pm ET
Arizona (-11) at Hawaii, Over/Under: 73.5 – 10:30 pm ET

Quarterbacks

Khalil Tate (Arizona): $9,000 DraftKings, $10,100 FanDuel

It’s easy to forget that Tate was the clear betting favorite for last season’s Heisman Trophy as early as January 2018, after rushing for 1,353 yards on 133 carries during his 2017 sophomore campaign. Playing through multiple injuries in 2018 (sprained ankle, injured throwing shoulder, turf toe), sapped his rushing ability, but Tate’s passing efficiency was solid — ranking 18th amongst 162 qualifying FBS quarterbacks (min. 100 attempts) in Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR).

In 2018, Hawaii’s defense ranked 107th out of 130 qualifying teams in QBR allowed and also ranked as a bottom-20 defense in yards per rushing attempt, yards after contact per attempt and broken tackle rate. A healthy Tate could run wild in Honolulu.

Cole McDonald (Hawaii): $8,800 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel

Ranked 40th in IQR amongst that same qualifying group of 162 quarterbacks and 48th with a 75.2% on-target throw rate. Dropped to 65th in passing efficiency in both on-target throw rate and IQR on passes more than 15 yards downfield. Mcdonald targeted one of his two slot receivers on 260 of 483 passing attempts (54%).

Feleipe Franks (Florida): $7,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel

Ranked 44th in IQR amongst qualifying quarterbacks despite 0.4 fewer yards per attempt and an on-target throw rate 6% lower than McDonald. Averaged nearly 10 rushing fantasy points per game over his final seven contests. Has a difficult matchup here against the reigning number one passing defense (43 QBR allowed) in Miami, who was also adept at stopping both designed QB runs (-15 yards on 87 attempts) and QB scrambles (-45 yards on 62 attempts).

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Florida Gators quarterback Feleipe Franks

Jarren Williams (Miami): $6,100 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel

Dual-threat ability, but playing behind an inexperienced offensive line and against 2018’s No. 13 passing defense (67 QBR allowed). Florida allowed 20 first downs on QB scrambles in 2018 — the second-most in FBS behind Arkansas State — so Williams might have some opportunities to tuck it and run to the sticks. Williams is a tournament Super Flex option, given the gap between his floor and ceiling.

Running Backs

J.J. Taylor (Arizona): $7,700 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel

In a good spot due to Arizona’s status as a two-score favorite and Hawaii’s porous rushing defense. Taylor averaged 119.8 rushing yards (seventh in FBS) and 175.6 all-purpose yards (second in FBS) per game in 2018, though he wasn’t exceptionally efficient, ranking in the middle of the pack in both yards after contact per attempt (2.9) and broken tackle rate (16.8%) amongst the 50 players with more than 200 rushing attempts.

Taylor had two fantasy efforts of more than 40 points on DraftKings but also failed to score 10 or more points in four games. Arizona also needs to replace 250 passing targets, and the versatile playmaker will be fed a ton of volume.

Lamical Perine (Florida): $6,200 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel

Led the Gators in total yards in 2019 despite starting only one game. Was less efficient than Jordan Scarlett, averaging one fewer yard after contact (4.1 to 3.1) with a significantly lower broken tackle rate (36.6% to 15.7%). Miami had a top-10 rushing defense in 2018 (3.28 yards per attempt), and its linebacking corps is elite, so I would look elsewhere at running back.

DeeJay Dallas (Miami): $5,800 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel

Will inherit a bigger role in this offense with the departure of Travis Homer, and has solid underlying metrics (3.4 yards after contact; 24% broken tackle rate). Florida’s rushing defense was its weak spot in 2018, allowing 4.3 yards per carry and an SEC-worst 2.99 yards after contact per attempt. Backup Cam’Ron Harris should take about 10 touches, but DeeJay is a gifted runner.

Dayton Furuta (Hawaii): $4,300 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel

The redshirt senior has the size to be the Hawaiian Jerome Bettis. He caught all 10 of his catchable targets in 2019 and broke twice as many tackles as Fred Holly III in fewer carries. Furuta should be given a larger role in the offense, but his timeshare with Holly diminishes his overall upside.

Wide Receivers

Jason-Matthew Sharsh (Hawaii): $4,700 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel

Sharsh won a starting spot over California transfer Melquise Stovall in the left slot role previously occupied by John Ursua, which Cole McDonald targeted 134 times for 1,198 yards in 2018. So long as he owns the role, Sharsh is a must-use in all lineups. Stovall is explosive and his usage is worth monitoring — he will begin the season as a kick and punt returner.

Cedric Byrd II (Hawaii): $6,900 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel

I’d prefer Hawaii’s other slot receiver, Byrd (118 targets in 2018), to its outside receiver JoJo Ward (108 targets), who is less expensive than Byrd on DraftKings but more expensive on FanDuel. They both averaged 8.2 yards per target in 2018, but Byrd ranked 18th with an 88% on-target catch rate amongst the 58 receivers to record more than 100 targets. Ward ranked 58th of 58 — more than 5% below the nearest receiver.

Cedric Peterson (Arizona): $5,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel

I mentioned above that Arizona has to replace 250 passing targets and Peterson is the only receiver on the Arizona depth chart without an “or” designation, so playing time and pass volume should be secure for this redshirt senior.

Van Jefferson (Florida): $5,100 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel

Led the Gators with 64 targets in 2018, but this is an extremely difficult matchup against an elite passing defense. I would use Jefferson in only a tournament stack with Franks.

Brevin Jordan (Miami): $3,700 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel

Deep ball threat and 2018 target leader Jeff Thomas will likely be guarded by CJ Henderson, who might be the first defensive back off the board in the 2020 NFL Draft. Jordan, the number one ranked tight end in his recruiting class, ranked second on the team with 49 targets during his freshman year, and I expect a game script centered around Jordan and fellow four-star tight end Will Mallory — Miami’s two best red-zone weapons.

Data courtesy of the SIS DataHub.

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