The PGA TOUR has arrived in Florida for the next part of the season in the buildup to The Masters. The Florida swing starts at a familiar course but in a tournament with a new name this week. The tournament formerly known as The Honda Classic has a new sponsor, so it is now the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches. The course is still PGA National, though, so we have some course history to draw upon even though the name is brand new for 2024.
Next week is a Signature Event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with THE PLAYERS Championship the following week, so many of the biggest names are taking this week off before those two headline tournaments. However, there’s still a solid field this week, with Rory McIlroy leading the way. Nineteen of the top 50 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking are in the field, led by Rory, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tom Kim, Cameron Young, and Sepp Straka.
Last year’s winner, Chris Kirk, will also be back to defend his title as he looks for his second victory in 2024. He edged out Eric Cole in a playoff to claim the victory on this track last season. Other winners from 2024 in the field include Matthieu Pavon, Nick Dunlap, and last week’s breakthrough winner in Mexico, Jake Knapp.
For players lower in the rankings, this week is critical to earning points that can get them into next week’s Arnold Palmer, the PLAYERS, and ultimately all the way to Augusta for the first major of 2024. This week’s format features a full field and the typical cut to the top 65 and ties after Round 2.
PGA National always provides an enjoyable week to watch as players try to survive the difficult track. The course has played as a par 70 for the past several years but has been expanded to a par 71. The change is to hole 10, which will play this week as 530-yard par 5, but by far the most famous stretch of holes on the course is the “Bear Trap.” That moniker refers to the three holes- No. 15, No. 16, and No. 17- which all include plenty of water and make play extremely difficult, with many players posting big numbers and sometimes rinsing repeatedly.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $800K Pitch + Putt, which awards $200,000 to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tom Kim $10,100
There are five players placed over $10,000 in this field, and strong cases can be made for each of them. Rory McIlroy has the highest ceiling projection in the field but also has the highest ownership projections due to his name recognition along with the highest salary. Cameron Young and Russell Henley have had success on this track in the past, and Matt Fitzpatrick looks like an ultimate contrarian play since his lack of form has his ownership projection under 8%. However, my top option is Kim, who offers a good balance of salary relief, strong form, and good leverage.
Kim will be playing in this event for the first time in his career, but he has exceeded salary-based expectations in 12 of his last 13 tournaments, and he has proven he can succeed on difficult courses like this one. At the start of that run of success, he posted back-to-back top 10s at the Scottish Open and The Open Championship before an ankle injury caused him to miss some time. He came back strong and won the Shriners Children’s Open for the second year in a row as part of the FedExCup Fall after making it through the TOUR Championship in last year’s playoffs.
Aside from Fitzpatrick, Kim has the best SimLeverage of the top group. He has the third-highest median projection, the fourth-highest ceiling projection, and the fifth-highest floor projection in the entire field but is outside the top 12 in ownership projection. Without much fanfare, he comes into his debut at PGA National offering strong form and good leverage.
J.T. Poston $9,800
There are some strong options in the $9,000s this week, including three players that have very similar SimLeverages just under $10,000. Poston is my favorite play of the group, which also includes Sungjae Im and Min Woo Lee.
Poston has the sixth-highest SimLeverage in the field along with the second-highest Perfect%, behind just Rory and one spot higher than Tom Kim. Poston’s projected ownership is also just one slot ahead of Kim’s, just outside the top 10 in that category.
He comes into the event after a great West Coast swing. Poston bounced back from a missed cut on the number in Phoenix by finishing in the top 10 at the Signature Event at The Genesis Invitational. He finished in the top 20 in five of his six tournaments in 2024 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in 14 of his last 15 events dating back to last summer.
Unlike Kim, Poston isn’t playing this event for the first time. He has made the cut in five of his six career appearances but has yet to crack the top 35. He comes into this year’s tournament playing some of the best golf of his career, though, and getting him at this ownership makes him a very strong play given his ceiling.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Sepp Straka $8,600
Straka has the highest Pefect% of all golfers with salaries under $9,000 this week. He won this event two years ago and finished in the top five in his title defense last season. In each of the last four years, he has made the cut and finished in the top 35.
He comes back to PGA National with mixed form, which keeps his ownership in check. He missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational and the Famers Insurance Open, but he did finish T26 at the AT&T Pebble Beach in between.
Straka’s strong accuracy off the tee and with his mid-irons make him a great fit for certain courses, including this layout. The big Austrian usually plays well on the Florida swing, and his success at this course makes him a strong leverage option in this price bracket.
Alex Noren $8,200
Noren is another European who has had plenty of success on the Florida swing, including at PGA National. He doesn’t usually do as well in low-scoring birdie fests but has proven he can grind out scores in tough conditions on difficult tracks.
He has made the cut in nine straight PGA TOUR appearances dating back to last fall and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last six. During that run of form, he finished third at the Shriners Children’s Open and second in the Bermuda Championship. More recently, he placed in the top 30 at The American Express and the AT&T Pebble Beach in California.
The 41-year-old Swede has 10 career wins on the European Tour but hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR yet. He has made the cut in three of his last four appearances at this event, including a pair of top 5s, and he finished fifth behind Straka two years ago.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Taylor Pendrith 7,800
Pendrith’s recent form makes him a great target for GPP lineups. He has epitomized “boom-or-bust” with three top 10s alternated with three missed cuts. Some players may shy away after his missed cut in Mexico, but if you can take the risk, his upside makes him worth a look.
In each of the last two seasons, he has made the cut at PGA National with a top 25 in 2022 and a T42 last year. He is another golfer who usually thrives in Florida layouts, where his strong ball striking can help cover for his often erratic putting. He has shown an ability to bounce back from missed cuts with strong showings, and I expect that again this week.
Of all players with salaries under $8,000, Pendrith has the second-highest SimLeverage and the third-highest Perfect%. He has the fourth-highest ceiling of all players in that price range and comes with a very low ownership projection of under 5%.
Erik Van Rooyen $7,400
Van Rooyen has been a regular in my picks this season, and he will look to translate his success to Florida as the PGA TOUR shifts coasts.
EVR stormed out to a fast start in Mexico and still secured a top-10 finish after a pair of 70s on the weekend. It was his first top 10 of 2024 but his seventh top 25 in his last nine tournaments. He won last fall at the World Wide Technology Championship. He ranks fifth in shots gained: ball striking and third in shots gained: approach over the past 50 rounds.
His ownership is still very palatable under 10% despite his early-season success, partly due to his lack of great course history. Even though he has missed the cut in two of his three career appearances here, I think his turnaround is legitimate and should help him find better success this week.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Davis Thompson $6,800
There are plenty of options in this salary range that can help differentiate your lineup and provide value with a high finish and even just a made cut. Thompson is a nice “swing for the fences” pick who has shown a high ceiling in the past. He has not played this event before, which may be why his ownership projection is still under 7%.
A missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open is the only blemish on his recent form. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 11 events dating back to last summer. During that stretch, he finished in the top 25 six times, including at the WM Phoenix Open and the Mexico Open in his last two starts.
If he can maintain his ball-striking form, switching to Bermuda greens should be a positive change for him, based on his history. He has the second-highest ceiling projection of all players under $7,000 and the third-highest Perfect%.
Andrew Novak $5,900
Novak was in my picks as a sleeper last week and delivered a second straight top-10 finish. He posted 7-of-8 rounds under 70 to end up with identical T8 finishes in each of his last two tournaments at the WM Phoenix Open and the Mexico Open. It was an impressive turnaround after missing three straight cuts to start 2024 when he failed to break 70 in any of his seven rounds. His sudden surge has been powered by climbing into the top six on the PGA TOUR in shots gained: tee-to-green.
Last year, Novak made the cut and finished T29 for his best career result at PGA National. He’ll look to stay hot this week, and he’s a great way to save money with his salary, which is extremely affordable at under $6,000.
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