This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the AFC Championship matchup featuring the Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Fresh off of a five-TD outburst against the Texans, Patrick Mahomes is the undisputed top option for the Captain spot on DraftKings. Mahomes wrecked the Titans for 446 yards and 3 TDs in a losing effort in Week 10. Our DraftKings Showdown Models peg Mahomes’ median projection just over 6 points above any other player on the slate, with a Projected Plus/Minus that clocks in more than 1.5 points better than any other option. A lineup captained by Mahomes can also fit Derrick Henry (23-188-2 in the first matchup), Damien Williams, Harrison Butker, and Jonnu Smith under the cap if you punt the last slot with MyCole Pruitt. Williams played 62-of-64 snaps last week and is averaging 1.4 TDs over his last five healthy contests. With the Chiefs favored by a touchdown and Ryan Tannehill having attempted 20 or fewer passes in each of the past three games, Williams is the riskier fade of the two at this point. Pruitt has caught multiple passes in three of his last four games and is the top projected value under $3,200 in our models.
On FanDuel, Mahomes-Henry-Williams leaves enough salary for Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman, who both project for more points than any Titans pass catcher except A.J. Brown.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
RB Damien Williams, Chiefs: Averaging 110.2 scrimmage yards and 1.4 TDs on 17.6 touches over his last five healthy contests and checks in at No. 2 in projected ceiling behind only Mahomes in our models.
RB Derrick Henry, Titans: 30-plus carries, 182-plus rushing yards in each of his past three games and facing a run defense that ranked 29th in schedule-adjusted efficiency, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs: 10-157-1 vs. Tennessee in Week 10.
TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs: 7-75-1 vs. Tennessee in Week 10.
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
Chiefs
- Mahomes-Kelce +0.66
- Hardman-Robinson +0.58
- Mahomes-Watkins +0.38
- Mahomes-Robinson +0.33
- Mahomes-Williams +0.24
- Mahomes-Hill +0.11
- Mahomes-Hardman +0.04
- Mahomes-Butker +0.02
- Watkins-Kelce -0.07
- Watkins-Robinson -0.07
- Hill-Kelce -0.08
- Hill-Watkins -0.17
- Watkins-Hardman -0.21
- Mahomes-Chiefs DST -0.55
Kelce has been the most necessary pass-catcher to stack with Mahomes, as he relies more on TDs. Hill has been the better standalone play. Mahomes-Demarcus Robinson is an underrated pairing given how pricing sets up on this slate. Robinson posted his second-highest yardage total and tied for his second-highest reception total in the first meeting with the Titans.
Titans
- Tannehill-Brown +0.70
- Henry-Titans DST +0.40
- Tannehill-Davis +0.33
- Brown-Davis +0.23
- Tannehill-Smith +0.20
- Henry-Brown +0.17
- Brown-Smith +0.16
- Tannehill-Sharpe +0.11
- Tannehill-Henry -0.15
- Tannehill-Firkser -0.53
- Tannehill-Titans DST -0.57
Henry-Titans DST is once again the top contrarian stack here, as Henry will be chalk but the Titans almost certainly won’t. Tannehill-Brown is the play in lineups that fade Henry. The Chiefs allowed the sixth-most schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to tight ends but the second-fewest to No. 2 wide receivers (33.0), which favors pairing Tannehill with Smith over Corey Davis.
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
Titans DST: 14 fantasy points in back-to-back upsets.
Chiefs DST: Mahomes’ strongest negative correlation (-0.53).
WR Sammy Watkins, Chiefs: Averaging 4.0 catches for 84.0 yards in three playoff games with the Chiefs and has a negative correlations to Hill (-0.17) and Kelce (-0.07).
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
UPDATE: LeSean McCoy is INACTIVE.
- WR Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs: Ran 24 routes to Mecole Hardman‘s 10 last week, per PFF, and led the team in average depth of target during the regular season (13.2, per AirYards.com).
- WR Mecole Hardman, Chiefs: Averaging 1.65 receptions per game, 19.8 yards per reception, and has scored on 21% of his catches but will be higher owned than Robinson.
- TE Blake Bell, Chiefs: Ran a season-high 39% of the routes last week.
- WR Adam Humphries, Titans: Practiced for the first time since Week 13 this week. Averaged 2.7 catches for 31.0 yards and 0.33 TDs in six games with Tannehill starting. UPDATE: Adam Humphries is ACTIVE.
- TE Anthony Firkser, Titans: Best fantasy game of the year (3-36-1) came in the first meeting between these two teams.
- RB Darwin Thompson, Chiefs: Logged just one offensive snap in his playoff debut. UPDATE: Locked in No. 2 back with LeSean McCoy inactive.
- TE MyCole Pruitt, Titans: Two catches in three of the last four games.
- WR Kalif Raymond, Titans: Return man, shot-play receiver who caught a 45-yard TD last week.
- WR Tajae Sharpe, Titans: Falls out of the top three on the wide receiver depth chart if Humphries returns.
- RB Dion Lewis, Titans: Three touches through two playoff games.
- FB Khari Blasingame, Titans: 15 snaps but only one route last week.
- FB Anthony Sherman, Chiefs: Nine snaps, two routes last week.
- TE Deon Yelder, Chiefs: Five snaps, two routes last week.
- WR Byron Pringle, Chiefs: Five snaps, no routes last week.
Chris Raybon finished No. 4 in FantasyPros’ weekly fantasy football rankings accuracy contest in 2019. He is a Senior Editor and NFL analyst at the Action Network, as well as a co-host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio on Thursdays and Fridays at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and be sure to read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Dylan Buell/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes
