Here’s a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the Week 7 Thursday Night Football matchup featuring the Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos at 8:15 p.m. ET on FOX and NFL Network.
Cash Game Strategy
Balky ankle or not, Patrick Mahomes is the highest floor, highest ceiling play and best value by far in our DraftKings Showdown Models. He belongs in the 1.5x spot in cash. The public is generally down on him, so this is also one of the best weeks yet to play him in tournaments.
In cash, Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman are also must-plays going against a Kansas City defense getting spanked for 161.8 rushing yards per game and 5.2 per carry, both third-worst in the NFL. And despite the advantage the Broncos have in the run game, you also have to get Joe Flacco in cash due to the scoring potential of the Chiefs offense.
That leaves choosing between the Chiefs backfield. Though Damien Williams dominated usage share two weeks ago with 35 snaps and 12 touches to LeSean McCoy‘s 14 snaps and two touches, it was McCoy had a nearly identical edge in snaps (29-22) and touches (10-2) last week. The extreme splits leading into a short week suggest Williams was being conserved for a larger role on the short week.
I would lean Damien and Darrel Williams in the last two spots over a McCoy-Byron Pringle combo, but given the uncertainty I think the best option is actually Emmanuel Sanders and Pringle. Sanders is projected for over 1.00 points more than both top Chiefs RBs, and the Chiefs have seen the eighth-most pass attempts in the league this season and are now without starting cornerback Kendall Fuller (thumb).
On FanDuel, pricing essentially leaves you no choice but to fade Flacco and go with a Mahomes-Lindsay-Freeman-Sanders-Courtland Sutton combination. The four latter four have combined for 233 of the team’s 293 touches and nine of their 10 offensive TDs. so it still makes more sense than going down to another tier and essentially picking between dart-throw options.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
Correlations/Stacks
Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. All correlation data is from the past 12 months unless otherwise noted.
RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman, Broncos: The Chiefs are exploitable on the ground. They’re ranked 31st in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and have ben gashed more the most yardage in the league by opposing backfields. Lindsay is averaging 17.1 touches per game and Freeman, 14.5, and the two have a slightly positive correlation (+0.10), so this isn’t a one-or-the-other scenario on a short slate.
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Denver Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay (30).
RB Damien Williams, Chiefs: This is a slate full of popular players, so I think the edge is going with a slightly under the radar core vs. competing with all of the Mahomes-Tyreek Hill–Travis Kelce stacks.
Opponents have targeted running backs against Denver at a 24% rate — well above the league average of 21% — and also funnels targets away from wide receivers (53% vs. 60% avg.), so Williams is a nice combination of leverage, upside, and ownership. Whether it’s in the passing game or the run game, the Chiefs need a more sustaining element to their offense after losing time of possession to Houston 39:48-20:12 last week, and a relatively fresh Williams should be first in line.
TE Noah Fant, Broncos: Under new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnoulo, the Chiefs have begun to be one of those defenses whose schemes funnels the ball inward to the tight end position, as Kansas City’s 30% target rate allowed leads the league. Fant is 12th among tight ends in routes run (151) and Denver is facing the best offense they’ll see all year, so this is a good week to bet on the rookie’s first breakout game.
Chiefs
- Hill-Chiefs DST +0.49
- Kelce-Hardman +0.48
- Mahomes-Kelce +0.38
- Mahomes-Hardman +0.43
- Mahomes-Butker +0.24
- Mahomes-Robinson +0.12
- Mahomes-Hill +0.07
- Hill-Kelce +0.01
- Hill-Butker -0.20
- Hill-Damien Williams -0.27
- Mahomes-Damien Williams -0.30
- Kelce-Damien Williams -0.37
Since DraftKings imposes the 1.5x salary tax on the Captain spot, putting his cheaper receivers in the Captain spot will give you the flexibility to create more differentiated, +EV lineups than the field.
Also note that Hill has the ability to eat up a whole drive with a big play and is the best non-QB stacked player among Chiefs pass catchers.
- Flacco-Fant +0.82
- Flacco-Hamilton +0.75
- Flacco-Sanders +0.72
- Sanders-Fant +0.56
- Flacco-Sutton +0.52
- Sutton-Fant +0.19
- Lindsay-Freeman +0.10
- Flacco-Freeman -0.21
- Sanders-Sutton -0.25
- Flacco-McManus -0.36
- Flacco-Broncos DST -0.42
- Sutton-Heuerman -0.44
- Flacco-Lindsay -0.73
This is pretty straightforward, we want to strategically use pairings according how they would fit in with the projected game script of the rest of the lineup (Lindsay/Freeman in 1.5x and fade the pass catchers, the less used pass catchers as contrarian low-cost options in heavy Chief stacks, etc.).
Leverage
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
RB Darrel Williams, Chiefs: Jamaal came through for us on Monday night, and another Williams could be that tonight. He played 14 snaps two weeks ago and seven last week, but given how Damien and Shady have each essentially got a turn to be the feature back over the past two weeks, it wouldn’t surprise me if Darrel popped out of nowhere for a high-usage game. He’s gotten loose for a 52-yard catch, 41-yard run, and 30-yard catch over the past three weeks.
Chiefs DST: Even when they’re bad, they’re always liable to post a high score because of their dangerous weapons special teams.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- WR Byron Pringle, Chiefs: Ran more routes (29) than Hill and Mecole Hardman (25) last week and is averaging a 4-62-0.5 line on 6.0 targets over the past two.
- WR DaeSean Hamilton, Broncos: Averaging a similar amount of routes run (24.6) to Fant (25.2) but costs more.
- TE Jeff Heuerman, Broncos: The cheapest player on the Broncos averaging double-digit routes run per game (12.1).
- WR DeAnthony Thomas, Chiefs: 15 snaps and one target over the last two weeks but always liable to pop via gadget play or kick return.
- FB Andy Janovich, Broncos: 17 snaps, 0.3 touches per game since returning three weeks ago.
- TE Andrew Beck, Broncos: 26 snaps and a target over the past two games.
- TE Blake Bell, Chiefs: 64 routes but only three targets in six games.
- WR Fred Brown, Broncos: Trending up and could mix in as the WR4 if the Broncos fall down big.
- WR Diontae Spencer, Broncos: One target on 11 snaps on the year but adds value as kick returner.
- TE Deon Yelder, Chiefs: Popped for 2-43-0 in Week 4 but has played only 10 snaps this season.
- FB Anthony Sherman, Chiefs: Hasn’t played more than six snaps since Week 1.
- RB Darwin Thompson, Chiefs: As much upside as anyone ranked fourth or lower if he’s active.
Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports.
Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15)
