Here’s the breakdown for Week 2 of Thursday Night Football featuring the Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers at 8:20 ET on NFL Network.
DraftKings Cash Game Strategy
Christian McCaffrey played 67-of-67 snaps in Week 1 and has a whopping 8-point edge in Projected Plus/Minus over any other player on the slate in our DK Showdown Models. The las time the Panthers played on Thursday night, CMC played 95% of the snaps after playing 98% the week before. He’s got to be locked in to the 1.5x spot in cash at all costs.
Rostering both teams’ QB-RB1 combo is tricky because the Bucs used a three-way committee last week. Given Ronald Jones’ lack of passing-down work last week (4 snaps) is alarming, but since he led the team in carries (13) and was the only back to get carries inside the 10 (2), he’s the play over Peyton Barber.
CMC, Jones, Cam Newton, and Jameis Winston fit with Panthers kicker Joey Slye (who actually has a higher median projection than any Bucs RB) if you punt the last spot with Alex Armah. The reason I’d go with Armah as a punt play is because in the last seven games Newton has been active, the inside-the-10 carries have broken down like this:
- McCaffrey: 15
- Newton: 3
- Armah: 3
- D.J. Moore: 1
Armah scored a goal-line touchdown last week and is essentially a touchdown insurance policy on McCaffrey. Cam running less near the goal-line is one of the main reasons why I’m on the over on his passing TD prop tonight.
FanDuel Cash
On FanDuel, you can’t fit McCaffrey, Newton, and Winston with Jones, but you can fit them with Barber and Ogunbowale, which in effect gives you 70% of the Tampa Bay’s backfield snaps from last week.
Core Pass Catchers
Chris Godwin: Mike Evans struggled against Carolina corners James Bradberry and Donte Jackson last season catching only 5-of-16 targets in two games. Godwin (42) ran two more pass routes than Evans (40) and 20 more than O.J. Howard (22) last week, making him the highest-floor option in the Bucs receiving corps.
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (12).
D.J. Moore: Moore has been on the receiving end of more than 20% of Newton’s passes in his last seven games dating back to last season. The second-year pro saw 10 targets last week to Curtis Samuel‘s four and led the team in air-yard share (42%), per AirYards.com.
Stacking/Correlations
Individual player correlations via the player cards in our NFL Player Models. All other correlations via our NFL Correlation Dashboard since the start of 2018 unless otherwise noted.
Postive Correlations
- Panthers: Cam Newton-Curtis Samuel +0.78
- Jameis Winston-Chris Godwin +0.63
- Cam Newton-D.J. Moore +0.61
- James Winston-Mike Evans +0.58
- Bucs QB-Opposing QB +0.57
- Jameis Winston Cameron Brate +0.38
Negative Correlations
- Jameis Winston-Peyton Barber -0.38
- Jameis Winston-Ronald Jones -0.32
- Christian McCaffrey-Panthers DST -0.37
- Christian McCaffrey-Curtis Samuel -0.31
- Jameis Winston-Bucs DST -0.25
- Christian McCaffrey-D.J. Moore -0.15
Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey is negatively correlated with everyone else on the team, so he can be run out naked in the 1.5x spot or paired with Joey Slye for maximum leverage. The pivot is to fade CMC and pair Newton with his pass catchers, particularly Moore and Samuel.
Leverage
Panthers DST: Opposing DSTs are averaging 10.06 DraftKings Points and a +4.1 Plus/Minus vs. Tampa Bay since the start of last season, per our NFL Trends tool. Though the correlation is negative, I still wouldn’t hesitate to pair CMC with Panthers DST given how generous Jameis has been to opposing defenses.
Dare Ogunbowale: Led Bucs running backs in snaps but only saw passing down work. Makes for a good pairing with the Panthers DST.
Cameron Brate: Was in on three fewer pass snaps (22) than O.J. howard last week (25), per Pro Football Focus.
Dart Throws
- Breshad Perriman: Tied for second on the Bucs last week with five targets and finished second on the team in air yards.
- Jarius Wright: Ran 28 pass routes last week to Chris Hogan‘s five.
- Ian Thomas: Benefits if Greg Olsen bows out early but may not even run a route if Olsen plays the whole game.
Pictured above: Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1).
Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports.
