This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the AFC Wild Card matchup featuring the Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans at 4:35 p.m. E.T. on ABC. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
Despite a tough matchup against a Bills defense that finished the regular season ranked sixth in schedule-adjusted efficiency per Football Outsiders’ DVOA, Deshaun Watson has nearly a 2-point edge in median projection over every other player on the slate in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Watson also paces the field in Projected Plus/Minus. Especially given that Watson is cheaper than Josh Allen and first-time postseason quarterbacks tend to struggle, I’d give Watson the nod over in Allen in the Captain spot.
With Watson and Allen locked in, you can also fit both starting running backs, Devin Singletary and Carlos Hyde with $3,900 left over. The optimal combo for those two final spots is Jordan Akins (hamstring, questionable), who ran 88 routes to Darren Fells‘ 60 in Weeks 14-16, and Isaiah McKenzie, who has run a route on 64% of dropbacks since taking over as Buffalo’s No. 3 wide receiver in Week 9 (excluding Week 17).
Akins practiced on a limited basis and is expected to play, but be sure to check his status and our models once inactive players are announced. In all likelihood, the top pivot would be Keke Coutee, as Will Fuller (groin) is a reportedly a long shot to play, according to NFL Network’s James Palmer. UPDATE: Akins and Fuller are inactive and Coutee is active and is the top pivot off Akins.
On FanDuel, Watson, Allen, Singletary, and Hyde all fit with $6,000 left over. As FanDuel’s half-PPR scoring format places a heavier emphasis on TDs and Fells has drawn 12 red-zone targets to Akins’ six, it makes more sense to go with Fells here.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: The floor is lower than usual for Hopkins this week: Due in large part to Tre’Davious White, who finished No. 15 of 125 qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus’ grades, the Bills defense finished the regular season ranked second-best in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers. That said, the ceiling is also astronomical, particularly if Fuller truly is a long shot to suit up. In four games without Fuller, Hopkins’ averaged 12.3 targets and a 8.3/89.3/0.50 line compared to 6.3/73.5/0.45 on 9.2 targets in 11 games with Fuller in the lineup.
RB Carlos Hyde, Texans: Hyde is another high-ceiling, low-floor play. The journeyman averaged 17.3 carries per game in Weeks 1-16, but he only saw 1.1 targets per game over that span. The Bills shored up their run defense down the stretch to some extent after a shaky start but still finished 18th in run-defense DVOA. With the Texans a 2.5-point favorite, Hyde is on the right side of his volume splits, as he averaged 17.3 carries and 1.4 targets in six games as a favorite compared to 14.7 carries and 0.7 targets as a dog (excluding Week 17).
WR Cole Beasley, Bills: Devin Singletary and John Brown are also liable to go off, but since Singletary is liable to get vultured by Allen at the goal line and Brown will likely be the highest owned Bills receiver, I like Beasley most as a core play.
From my blurb on Beasley’s receiving yards prop in our Bills-Texans betting guide:
This sets up as a Beasley game for two reasons. For one, as you would expect from a receiver who spends 75% of his snaps in the slot, Beasley leads the team with a 30% share of targets to the short middle, which is Houston’s main vulnerability in pass defense. According to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, the Texans defense ranks dead last in schedule-adjusted efficiency on short-middle passes by a wide margin. Whether the Texans are in zone or Beasley sees man coverage from Vernon Hargreaves, who finished 116th of 125 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ cornerback grades, this is a weakness the Bills are sure to attack to keep the chains moving and Deshaun Watson off the field.
Then you add in the game script factor: The Bills are a run-first team, so you would expect Beasley’s numbers to spike in close games, and the numbers bear that out. In four games where the Bills were favored by more than 3.5 points, Beasley averaged 5.5 targets for 28.5 yards with a median of 32 yards. In the 11 games he was active when the Bills were underdogs or favored by no more than 3.5, his averages spiked to 7.6 targets and 60.3 yards with a median of 74 yards.
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
Texans
- Watson-Fuller +0.72
- Watson-Fells +0.49
- Fairbairn-Texans DST +0.49
- Watson-Hopkins +0.38
- Watson-Johnson +0.37
- Hyde-Texans DST +0.36
- Hopkins-Fairbairn +0.36
- QB-Opposing QB +0.31
- Watson-Fairbairn +0.26
- Watson-Stills +0.19
- Stills-Coutee +0.18
- Hopkins-Hyde +0.09
- Watson-Coutee +0.07
- Hopkins-Stills +0.06
- Hopkins-Fuller +0.05
- Hopkins-Fells +0.05
- Hopkins-Johnson +0.05
- Watson-Hyde -0.02
- Stills-Akins -0.03
- Hyde-Johnson -0.08
- Stills-Fells -0.13
- Watson-Texans DST -0.15
- Akins-Fells -0.23
- Hopkins-Texans DST -0.22
- Fuller-Stills -0.52
With the field likely to focus on configurations featuring studs like Watson and Hopkins paired with some combination of Allen/Singletary/Brown/Beasley, I love the Hyde-Texans DST stack with Houston favored at home and J.J Watt returning. Watson-Fells is also a great stack considering most entrants will likely base non-Hopkins stacking decisions on whether or not Fuller is active, pivoting to Kenny Stills or Keke Coutee rather than Fells if Fuller sits.
Bills
- Allen-Brown +0.76
- QB-Opposing QB +0.51
- Allen-Knox +0.28
- Allen-Hauschka +0.27
- Singletary-Beasley +0.25
- Hauschka-Bills DST +0.24
- Brown-Knox +0.23
- Allen-Bills DST +0.17
- Allen-McKenzie +0.12
- Beasley-Knox +0.06
- Allen-Beasley -0.03
- McKenzie-Knox -0.03
- Singletary-Bills DST -0.03
- Singletary-Gore -0.19
- Singletary-Knox -0.30
- Allen-Singletary -0.39
- Brown-Beasley -0.39
- Singletary-Brown -0.46
The Bills are a defensive-minded team with a quarterback who often doubles as their goal-line back (11 carries, 8 touchdowns inside the 10), which helps explain why so many of their starters have negative correlations. Allen, Brown, and Knox tend to pair well together, while Singletary and Beasley — essentially the more conservative elements of Buffalo’s offense — have paired well only with each other.
Both teams (but especially the Bills) have shown relatively strong QB-Opposing QB correlations, and since Watson and Allen are both liable to find the end zone on the ground, a Watson-Allen stack with limited pass catchers is also intriguing from a leverage perspective.
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
Texans DST: Has negative correlations to Watson, Hopkins, Johnson, Akins, and Coutee. Also provides leverage on lineups that feature too many Buffalo’s skill players, who tend to be more negatively correlated with each other than most.
RB Duke Johnson, Texans: Negative correlation to Hyde and could also cut into the workloads of players like Keke Coutee and DeAndre Carter, who would be expected to replace some of Fuller’s usage if Fuller gets ruled out.
RB Frank Gore, Bills: More carries inside the 5 than Allen (5) and Singletary (2) combined and averages 7.8 carries per game with Singletary active, but the floor is zero after he was out-snapped 52-2 by Singletary in Week 16.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- TE Darren Fells, Texans: One red-zone target behind Hopkins (13) for the team lead and has converted seven into TDs.
- TE Dawson Knox, Bills: Also benefits from Houston’s deficiencies over the middle.
- WR Keke Coutee, Texans: Likely active as the starting slot receiver if Fuller is out but scratched if Fuller is active.
- WR Isaiah McKenzie, Bills: Running a route on nearly two-thirds of dropbacks but 4.3-yards average target depth kills his ceiling.
- WR DeAndre Carter, Texans: Returner who could see time at receiver if Fuller is out, with an outside shot of playing over Coutee.
- TE Tyler Kroft, Bills: 14 targets in 11 games, with three coming in the red zone.
- TE Jordan Thomas, Texans: Unlikely to be active or see snaps if he is, but I’d move him up to No. 7 if Akins ends up sitting.
- WR Andre Roberts, Bills: Return man with only seven targets in 13 games.
- WR Duke Williams, Bills: Chance to be active over Foster after posting 6 catches for 108 yards last week while Foster went catch-less.
- QB Matt Barkley, Bills: A scrambler like Allen could be more inclined to put his body on the line in the playoffs, potentially leading to injury.
- QB A.J. McCarron, Texans: Ditto for Watson.
- FB Patrick DiMarco, Bills: Eight touches in 16 games.
- TE Lee Smith, Bills: Five targets in 16 games.
- RB Senorise Perry, Bills: Emergency No. 3 running back who didn’t see carries until Week 17.
- RB Buddy Howell, Texans: Special teamer with two carries all year.
- RB Taiwan Jones, Texans: Special teamer behind even Howell for carries.
Pictured: Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson (4)
Photo credit: Bob Levey/Getty Images
