The PGA TOUR is on the tee for the second Signature Event of the 2025 season, as the top names in golf head to Pebble Beach for this week’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. It’s the season debut for Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth, and the event should give us a great finish on an iconic course if the weather cooperates this year. Last year, Wyndham Clark won a weather-shortened version of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am by one stroke over Ludvig Aberg.

Last year’s abbreviated edition was the first year that the event used the current format. For the first two rounds, 80 pros and 80 amateurs play one round at Pebble Beach and one round at Spyglass Hill. Just the pros play the weekend, with the final two rounds each taking place at Pebble Beach. Since there will be no cut for this event, all 80 pros will play four rounds, barring injury or withdrawal.

For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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Rory McIlroy $10,700

While the mainstream storyline around Rory is his inability to win the majors, he continues to be a strong DFS play and brings lots of leverage this week since his ownership projection is much lower than the other big names. Part of that may be due to his lack of much history at Pebble Beach, but when he’s at his best, he can win anywhere.

This week, Rory has the second-highest SimLeverage in the field since his ownership projection is under 15%. He has the fourth-highest ceiling, median and floor projections along with the fourth-highest Perfect%, but his ownership projection is barely in the top 10.

Last year on the PGA TOUR, Rory had 15 top 25s in 19 events, including wins at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans and the Wells Fargo Championship, along with his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open. Rory finished 2024 with a win at the DP World Tour Championship in November, and he started his DP World Tour season at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic earlier this month, where he was the two-time defending champion. He had a slow start before an excellent Final Round that saw him climb to a T4.

If he carries over that form, he definitely has a chance to compete this week, and getting him at low ownership is a good way to help your lineup stand out with some leverage at the top. You can either partner Rory with your other favorite star play or use him with chalky value plays and still have some solid differentiation for tournament contests.

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Justin Thomas $9,800

The other player who brings huge leverage near the top of the salary structure is Justin Thomas, who has the third-highest SimLeverage in the field. Thomas ranks just behind Rory with the fifth-highest Perfect% and just behind him in ownership projection at just under 15%. The public seems to be fading him and Rory since they haven’t won big in a while, with Thomas’s last win coming at the 2022 PGA Championship. However, both stars’ lower ownership makes them perfect tournament targets.

Thomas comes in with excellent form after finishing second at The American Express two weeks ago. He also finished runner-up last fall at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Japan and in third place at the unofficial Hero World Challenge in December.

Over the last 16 rounds, Thomas leads this elite field in Total Strokes Gained, ranks second in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and third in Strokes Gained: Approach.

JT is also the focus of converging trends due to his course history. Last year, he returned to the Pebble Beach Pro-Am for the first time in 10 years and finished T6 with three rounds under 69. He’ll look to stay hot overall and on these courses, and since people are playing the other big names, it looks like his ownership will not be nearly as high as his track record and current form merits.

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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

Jason Day $8,900

Day has the highest SimLeverage of any player in the $8,000 range, with his ownership projection checking in under 8%. He also has the fourth-highest Perfect% of the players between $7,000 and $9,000.

Day comes to Pebble Beach with a long and successful course history. He has played the course 15 times on the PGA TOUR (14 times in this event and once at the U.S. Open). He finished in the top 25 in 13 of those tournaments, with nine finishes in the top seven. He finished runner-up in 2018 and tied for sixth last season after closing with a 63 on Saturday.

No matter his form, Day seems to always show up with strong results in this tournament, and he comes in with some good momentum this season. He finished T3 at La Quinta two weeks ago and made the cut last week at Torrey Pines, finishing T32.

Based on his course history and form, it’s hard to pass up Day at this salary, especially if his ownership projection remains so reasonable.

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Sepp Straka $8,000

Of the 11 players between $8,000 and $9,000, only four have positive SimLeverage. Straka is one of those four coming off his win at The American Express two weeks ago.

The 31-year-old from Austria has three career wins after that victory. In that win, he gained close to five strokes from tee-to-green and over 16 total strokes. He ranks fourth in the field in Strokes Gained: Total over his last 12 rounds after finishing T15 at The Sentry and T30 at the Sony Open in Hawaii to start 2025.

Straka had success in his last two trips to Pebble Beach as well, finishing T28 at the U.S. Open in 2019 and T26 at this event last year. He is a strong play at only $8,000 based on how hot he has been this year, and his ownership projection is still under 10%.

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Value PGA DFS Picks

Beau Hossler, $7,600

Of the 80 players in the field this week, 59 have salaries under $8,000. While there are plenty of options to choose from, there isn’t a ton of apparent leverage since strong options like Max Greyserman and Harry Hall have very high ownership projections due to their recent success. There are a few strong leverage plays, though, and Hossler is one of my favorites. His ownership projection is just over 5%, but he comes in with a strong blend of course history and current form.

Hossler has posted three straight top 15s at Pebble Beach and has made the cut in six of his seven career appearances. The California native is still looking for his first career PGA TOUR win, but he has made a habit of posting strong results in this event.

He has also been finishing high on leaderboards lately, logging three straight top 20s whiile gaining strokes in all major categories en route to a T15 at Torrey Pines. Over the last 12 rounds, Hossler ranks in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Total and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. His short game has been strong lately, and he’s a good poa putter. He’s a good source of leverage at this salary and should be able to deliver on converging trends.

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Nick Taylor, $7,200

While Hossler is still looking for his first PGA TOUR victory, Taylor comes in with five career wins on the PGA TOUR, including one this season and another one on this course. His ownership projection is still very low, though, and he has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the entire field.

Last season, he struggled at Pebble Beach in its first go-around as a Signature Event, finishing T71 out of the 80 golfers. He did actually close with a strong 68 but couldn’t overcome an ugly 77 in the second round. His previous course history, though, is very strong, making 8-of-10 cuts with four top 25s. He won this event back in 2020 when he opened with a 63 and cruised to a four-shot win over Kevin Streelman with Phil Mickelson and Jason Day just behind him.

While that win feels like it was a long time ago, Taylor won the Sony Open just three weeks ago on a course that is similar in many ways. He also finished T12 at The American Express before taking last week off.

Taylor ranks seventh in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and also seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds. If he can keep in such strong ball-striking form and solve the greens like he did in 2020, he could be in contention again this week.

Sleeper PGA DFS Picks

Nico Echavarria $6,500

With all players playing four rounds (barring injury or withdrawal), it’s a good week to swing for the fences and go with some bargain plays who have spike upside. Echavarria brings a high ceiling since he showed he could win against a strong field by claiming the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP last fall, and he is in good form after losing in a playoff to Taylor at the Sony.

Echavarria missed the cut in his debut here two years ago and missed the cut at The American Express in his most recent event, but he is playing well enough to envision him putting together a high finish if he can flash the same form he showcased in Japan.

His strongest finishes have come on coastal courses like this that focus on shotmaking and good drive percentage. He’s high-risk, but he could also be high-reward if he pays off. He has the highest SimLeverage of any player in the entire field and the highest Perfect% of all players under $7,500

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Mackenzie Hughes $6,200

If we’re looking for spike potential on a course that sometimes turns into a putting contest, Hughes is one name that fits the bill despite being at the cheap end of the salary pool.

Hughes shot back-to-back 70s last year at Pebble Beach, but he opened with a scary 76 on Spyglass Hill, so he only finished T71. Prior to that event, Hughes played at Pebble Beach five times with three missed cuts, but he’s also posted two top 20s.

Hughes didn’t quite crack the top 50 and qualify for all of this year’s Signature Events, but he earned his way to this event as part of the Aon Next 10 due to a strong fall. Hughes exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his final 11 events in 2024, including top 10s at The RSM Classic and the Nedbank Golf Challenge on the DP World Tour. He missed the cut at The Sony in his 2025 debut but made the cut and finished T58 at The American Express two weeks ago.

If he gets hot, we’ve seen Hughes challenge the top of the leaderboard even in events with strong fields like this, so I like him as a boom-or-bust punt play for tournaments, especially with his ownership projection under 3%.