This is a breakdown of one-game DFS contests for the NFC Championship Game featuring the Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. E.T on FOX. Be sure to check our Models up until kickoff for up-to-date projections that reflect the latest breaking news.
Cash Game Strategy
With the Packers offense facing a difficult matchup and the 49ers backfield share potentially being split three ways, Jimmy Garoppolo ends up ranked as No. 1 in terms of Projected Plus/Minus in our DraftKings Showdown Models. Jimmy G’s numbers have been all over the place this season, but he posted one of his most efficient outings of the year in Week 12 against Green Bay, racking up 253 yards and 2 TDs on 25 pass attempts. With Jimmy G in the Captain spot, you can also fit Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert if you punt the last spot with Tyler Ervin. Adams outscored Aaron Rodgers, 19.30-10.46 when these two teams met in Week 12 and projects as the better play for this matchup as well. Ervin played seven snaps and got two touches last week and may see his role grow as head coach Matt LaFleur searches for creative ways to manufacture offense against a 49ers squad that held the Packers to eight points back in Week 12.
On FanDuel, you can get in Garoppolo, Adams, Jones, and Mostert if you punt the last spot with Jamaal Williams, who should be more involved this week after playing only nine snaps in his return from a nagging shoulder injury last week. Though Coleman caught the hot hand last week, Mostert was still involved with 12 carries for 58 yards before leaving with craping issues. Mostert saw 10 or more touches in each of the past six games and has to be the play here over Coleman, who costs $1,500 more despite similar projected usage.
Core GPP Plays
Note: These are in addition to the players already mentioned in the cash write-up and generally has a focus on pass-catchers, though sometimes players from the cash section will be re-highlighted as appropriate. On FanDuel, QBs generally make for the top plays in the 1.5x slot because the half PPR format creates a wider gap in scoring between QB and RB/WR/TE; on DraftKings, a RB/WR/TE who hits the 100-yard bonus is the ideal play.
WR Davante Adams, Packers: Lower floor than usual but still projects for monster volume. Went 7-43-1 on 12 targets in the first matchup.
TE George Kittle, 49ers: 6-129-1 in the first meeting.
49ers DST: Allowed eight points and collected five sacks in the first matchup.
Correlations/Stacks
Note: Individual player correlations can be found in the player cards in our NFL Player Models. Team positional correlations can be found in our NFL Correlations Dashboard. Unless otherwise noted, all player correlation data is from the past 12 months and team correlation data is from the start of 2019.
49ers
- Garoppolo-Sanders +0.66
- Garoppolo-Juszczyk +0.54
- Sanders-Bourne +0.36
- Garoppolo-Bourne +0.33
- Garoppolo-Kittle +0.33
- Garoppolo-Samuel +0.28
- Samuel-Bourne +0.26
- Garoppolo-Gould +0.03
- Kittle-Sanders 0.00
- Garoppolo-Mostert -0.01
- Samuel-Sanders -0.14
- Garoppolo-Coleman -0.22
- Kittle-Samuel -0.24
- Kittle-Bourne -0.26
- Garoppolo-49ers DST -0.33
- Coleman-Mostert -0.60
Deebo Samuel‘s involvement in the run game means he’s less necessary to stack with Garoppolo than Emmanuel Sanders. Garoppolo ended up hitting enough big plays in the first matchup to post decent numbers despite attempting only 20 passes as his team dominated defensively, but there’s more upside to leaving 49ers DST out of lineups with him unless you’re going with a full-on onslaught. Most teams blitz Garoppolo at a high rate, but the Packers rarely blitzed in the first matchup, resulting in him targeting running backs at an uncharacteristically high 40% rate as Green Bay sat back in coverage. That game plan wasn’t very successful — Garoppolo averaged 12.7 yards per attempt — so I would expect defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to bring more heat this time around, which could lead to more opportunities in single coverage for Samuel, Sanders, and Kendrick Bourne. As Bourne will match up against Tramon Williams, Green Bay’s highest-graded and least targeted corner (13% of coverage snaps), according to Pro Football Focus, I like the Garoppolo-Samuel-Sanders stack as a pivot off Garoppolo-Kittle-Samuel/Sanders three-man stacks, which are likely to be chalkier.
Packers
- Rodgers-Graham +0.55
- Rodgers-MVS +0.47
- Rodgers-Adams +0.46
- Rodgers-Lazard +0.40
- Rodgers-Allison +0.39
- Jones-Adams +0.19
- Rodgers-Williams +0.16
- Jones-Packers DST +0.15
- Adams-Graham +0.13
- Rodgers-Crosby +0.11
- Adams-Lazard -0.05
- Rodgers-Jones -0.07
- Jones-Williams -0.15
- Adams-Packers DST -0.26
- Rodgers-Packers DST -0.43
Jones-Packers DST is the top pivot off Rodgers-Adams. The 49ers allowed the fewest yards per reception during the regular season, so I would consider Jones-Adams just as viable as Rodgers-Adams in this spot, as they could rack up short catches without Rodgers having much to show for it. Outside of the Packers’ big three, I’d view Allen Lazard as the top play. At 6-foot-4, 227 pounds, he could use his size to his advantage in the red zone against 5-foot-11, 184-pound cornerback Emmanuel Moseley
Leverage Plays
Players whose production would benefit owners more than expensive or highly-owned players. Kickers and D/STs generally make for strong leverage plays, but those who stand out will be highlighted below.
Packers DST: According to Next Gen Stats, Jimmy G threw into tight windows on 21.1% of his pass attempts last week, most of any QB in the Divisional Round. Also has a negative correlation with Rodgers (-0.43) and Adams (-0.26).
RB Jamaal Williams, Packers: Could still be limited by a shoulder issue but has an outside shot at regaining a role that saw him play 40-50% of the snaps for most of the year.
Dart Throw Rankings
Ranking the low-cost, complementary players not already discussed in the leverage section by likelihood of having a worthwhile fantasy stat line.
- RB Matt Breida, 49ers: Played 12-of-71 snaps and fumbled late but was also involved early.
- RB Tyler Ervin, Packers: Return man with 4.4 speed who carried twice for 25 yards last week and could see his role grow.
- TE Jimmy Graham, Packers: One catch for 7 yards in the first matchup.
- WR Jake Kumerow, Packers: 15.1 average depth of target, 15 routes last week.
- WR Geronimo Allison, Packers: Just three catches for 9 yards in the first matchup.
- FB Kyle Juszczyk, 49ers: Twenty-four targets and three carries in 13 games.
- TE Jace Sternberger, Packers: Season-high 28 snaps and eight routes last week.
- TE Robert Tonyan, Packers: 12 routes last week and a better pass-catcher than Marcedes Lewis.
- TE Marcedes Lewis, Packers: 41 snaps, 12 routes last week.
- WR Richie James Jr., 49ers: Return man averaging 27.5 yards per reception on six receptions but hasn’t seen a target since Week 11.
- WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers: 17.1 average depth of target (AirYards.com) but ran only three routes last week.
- WR Dante Pettis, 49ers: AWOL.
- TE Ross Dwelley, 49ers: One route last week.
- TE Levine Toilolo, 49ers: One route last week.
Chris Raybon finished No. 4 in FantasyPros’ weekly fantasy football rankings accuracy contest in 2019. He is a Senior Editor and NFL analyst at the Action Network, as well as a co-host of “The Action Network” on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio on Thursdays and Fridays at 10 a.m. ET. He also hosts the weekly NFL Betting edition of The Action Network Podcast and is featured each week on The Fantasy Flex edition of the pod, as well. He has watched every snap of every NFL game since 2010 — even the kneel downs. Follow him on Twitter @ChrisRaybon and be sure to read about how he quit his accounting job and got paid to watch sports.
Credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo.
