Betting analyst Nick Galaida has scoured over 2023 NFL Draft odds and has locked in three first-round bets he thinks will be profitable this Thursday.
On Thursday, the 2023 NFL Draft will begin at 8:00 p.m. EST. Round 1 will take place on Thursday, followed by rounds 2 and 3 on Friday evening, with rounds 4-7 taking place Saturday afternoon. Fans can watch the draft on ESPN, NFL Network, CBS, and other streaming services.
As of this writing, there is still plenty of intrigue regarding the top overall selection, which is held by the Carolina Panthers. The Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, Indianapolis Colts, and Seattle Seahawks round out the top five, all of which could create chaos at the top of the draft board.
Below, we take a look at some of our favorite values and best bets for those who are looking to wager on the event at online sportsbooks.
2023 NFL Draft Best Bets
Total Running Backs Drafted in the First Round, Under 1.5 (+158, FanDuel)
This is a draft class with plenty of talent at the running back position, but there is very little justification for teams to take running backs in the first round of the NFL draft, given the current ethos of the league.
In 2022, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, and Saquon Barkley ranked in the top four in the NFL in rushing yards. Jacobs, Henry, and Chubb did not make the playoffs with their respective team. Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants won one playoff game before getting run off the field against the Philadelphia Eagles.
At significant plus money, bettors should be willing to bet that running back talent falls as teams prioritize other positions that have a more tangible impact on winning.
Anthony Richardson – Draft Position, Under 7.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Though Anthony Richardson’s profile certainly carries an abundance of red flags, there is simply too much upside here for him to fall below the seventh overall pick. Pro Football Focus’ draft guide went as far as to say that Richardson’s physical tools are “arguably the best since Cam Newton in 2011.”
In the modern NFL, mobile quarterbacks are increasingly valuable, evident by the fact that the Super Bowl this past February had Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts starting for their respective teams. According to Brandon Anderson of The Action Network,, Richardson ranked in the 99th percentile in vertical jump and broad jump at the combine.
In his final year at Florida, Richardson had two games with over 100 rushing yards and scored nine times with his legs. Richardson has been picked on for his poor decision-making in the pocket and for his accuracy issues. However, he had multiple offensive coordinators in college and had very limited experience in college. More reps and a strong environment for him to learn the NFL game could unlock his impressive upside and make him a franchise cornerstone.
Do not expect Richardson to start Week 1 this fall, but his upside is certainly worth the risk, making him a good bet to be taken in the first seven picks on Thursday night.
Hendon Hooker, Over 30.5 (+125, Ceasars Sportsbook)
The biggest thing working against Hendon Hooker in this draft is his age. At 25 years old, Hooker is older than Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence, and Tua Tagovailoa. He is only slightly younger than Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes. Older age can be seen as a sign of maturity and stability, but it can also be seen as a negative in a league where young signal callers are increasingly having championship-level success.
Factor in that Hooker is less mobile than some of the other prospects in this class and that he played in Tennessee’s offense in college, and it is difficult to envision Hooker becoming an overnight success in the NFL. Add in that Hooker is coming off of a torn ACL and he becomes even more risky as a first-round talent.
Take the over here.