After a grueling week at the PGA Championship, the PGA TOUR heads back to Texas to play the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Colonial Country Club is a 7,209-yard par 70 and features Bentgrass greens. The difficulty of the event this week could be influenced by course setup or wind. It can play relatively easy or relatively difficult depending on pin locations and firmness of the greens, and the last four seasons have all produced winners with scores between -9 and -15. Last year, the event played really tough with Sam Burns edging out Scottie Scheffler in a playoff (-9).
The Charles Schwab Challenge is an invitational that will host 121 golfers this week, and the field is fairly strong despite it being the week after a major championship.
Some notable golfers in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Sam Burns, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood and Tony Finau.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
And if you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach will be a major factor this week. It grades out as the most important statistic historically in events played at Colonial Country Club, and that should be the case once again this week.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $9,900 (4th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Rickie Fowler — $8,900 (5th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
- Value target: Scott Piercy — $6,400 (16th in Strokes Gained: Approach)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
Both distance and accuracy will be important this week. Historically, shorter hitters who find the fairway have thrived at Colonial, but last year we saw a lot of the players in the star-studded field use big drives to eliminate the challenge of doglegs and fairway bunkers. The rough can be thick and penal, so finding the fairway will remain important.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $10,600 (2nd Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
- Mid-range target: Brian Harman — $7,700 (6th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
- Value target: Cameron Champ — $6,800 (11th Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee)
Par 4: 400-450
With seven par 4s on the course that are between 400 and 450 yards, I am targeting golfers who excel on these types of holes. With only two par 5s on the course, par-4 scoring will be even more important.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $9,900 (1st Par 4: 400-450)
- Mid-range target: Denny McCarthy— $8,700 (7th Par 4: 400-450)
- Value target: Michael Kim— $6,700 (11th Par 4: 400-450)
Course history seems to be much more important at Colonial Country Club than most other courses. The same players tend to pop up on leaderboards here year after year.
- High-end target: Jordan Spieth — $9,900 (1st Course History)
- Mid-range target: Harris English — $7,800 (3rd Course History)
- Value target: Andrew Putnam — $7,100 (13th Course History)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
The Bentgrass greens at Colonial are in immaculate condition, and putters who roll it pure are at an advantage. Historically, great putters have thrived at Colonial.
- High-end target: Tony Finau — $10,700 (7th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Mid-range target: Christian Bezuidenhout — $7,700 (9th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
- Value target: Andrew Putnam — $7,100 (5th in Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass)
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