It all comes down to this. Super Bowl LVII pits the Eagles against the Chiefs Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. The Eagles are listed as 1.5-point favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you that like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The final game of the year features arguably the two best quarterbacks in fantasy football. Jalen Hurts led all quarterbacks with an average of 25.6 fantasy points per game, while Patrick Mahomes was second at 25.2. Both players get the job done in different ways, but both players are capable of going off every time they take the field.
Hurts is slightly more expensive than Mahomes, which makes sense when you consider the matchups. The Chiefs were a much friendlier matchup for quarterbacks this season. They ranked 20th in Football Outsiders pass defense DVOA, and they allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers.
Hurts also checks in with a higher ceiling projection in THE BLITZ, largely due to his rushing upside. He was an absolute menace with his legs during the regular season, averaging 50.7 rushing yards per game. He was also one of the top goal line threats in the league, punching in 13 touchdowns in 15 games. That was the top mark on the Eagles, and only Jamaal Williams had more rushing touchdowns in the entire NFL.
Hurts has found the paint in both of his playoff contests, but he hasn’t looked the same as a runner since returning from injury. He’s still been quite active on the ground, averaging just under 10 carries in his last three contests, but he’s averaged just 2.97 yards per attempt. His passing production has also taken a hit, and Hurts has finished with 14.74 DraftKings points or less in two of his past three games.
Hopefully, an additional week of rest will allow Hurts to return to his usual self vs. the Chiefs.
Mahomes is also operating at less than 100%, although it’s unclear just how hurt he actually is. He was removed from the injury report before the AFC Championship, but he was clearly hobbled against the Bengals. Still, Mahomes on one ankle is still one of the best quarterbacks in football. He racked up 326 passing yards and two scores, resulting in 23.85 DraftKings points.
The Bengals’ defense isn’t bad, but the Eagles are going to represent a clear step up in weight class. They possess the best pass defense in football, ranking first in pass defense DVOA by a decent margin. They boast a solid trio of cornerbacks – Darius Slay, James Bradberry, and Avonte Maddox all rank in the top 23 at the position per Pro Football Focus – which supplements their dominant pass-rush. The Eagles were first in adjusted sack rate this season, and they had at least 15 more sacks than every other team in football. Mahomes is clearly a special player, but even he could struggle against this unit if he’s at less than 100%.
Mahomes will take the field as an underdog on Sunday, which is not a spot he has a ton of experience in. However, he has absolutely thrived in his limited opportunities. He’s averaged 28.87 DraftKings points when the Chiefs are not favored, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of +7.54 (per the Trends tool).
It’s ultimately hard to separate Mahomes and Hurts on this slate, and playing both together is clearly viable. However, if I can only use one, I’m taking my chances with Hurts.
There are also plenty of high-end pass-catchers in this contest, but Travis Kelce is clearly the best of the bunch. Kelce has absolutely dominated the tight end position in recent years, and the gap between him and the rest of the field was particularly wide this season.
You don’t need to roster a tight end in the single-game format, but Kelce should still be on your radar. He has been absolutely unstoppable during the playoffs in recent years. He’s scored at least one receiving touchdown in eight of his past nine postseason contests, and he had 10 catches for 133 yards in the lone exception. He has at least 95 yards and a score in seven of his past eight playoff contests, and he’s eclipsed the 100-yard threshold in four of them.
The Eagles’ defense is going to be tough for Kelce to navigate, and they were sixth in DVOA against opposing tight ends this season. However, he should be extremely busy, and he’s a natural stacking partner with Mahomes. The two players have a correlation of +0.36 on DraftKings.
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
While Kelce is the Chiefs’ clear top pass-catcher, the Eagles use more of a committee approach. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have both served as the team’s No. 1 option at times this season, and their marks for the year look very similar. Brown finished with a slight edge in fantasy points – 17.6 PPR points per game vs. 15.0 for Smith – but both players commanded very similar target shares.
However, Brown does have a clear edge over Smith in terms of air yards. He racked up 39.5% of the team’s air yards this season, while Smith managed just 30.6%. Brown’s average depth of target (aDOT) was ultimately +2.0 yards further downfield.
Brown also appears to have a slight edge from a matchup perspective. He’s technically the team’s No. 1 receiver, and the Chiefs were merely 31st in DVOA vs. No. 1 receivers this season. They were 10th against No. 2s, so that’s another point in Brown’s favor.
Ultimately, both players have pretty similar median projections in THE BLITZ, but Brown’s ceiling projection is roughly two points higher. That feels about right, and with both players projected for nearly identical ownership, I’ll opt for the guy with more upside.
Playing both options with Hurts is also possible. The two receivers are positively correlated, which is pretty rare for high-end pass-catchers. Both players also have a correlation of at least +0.41 with Hurts.
The Eagles have also employed a committee backfield for most of the year, but Miles Sanders is the clear top option. His role has been slightly diminished over the past few weeks, but that was due to the team playing in a couple of blowouts. He racked up 53% of the snaps and 56% of the carries in the first half of the NFC Championship game, but those figures fell to 6% and 4% in the second half.
As long as this game stays more competitive, Sanders has a chance to rack up plenty of opportunities against the Chiefs. The Eagles have a significant advantage in the trenches in this contest, and Sanders has historically been a very efficient running back. He’s averaged at least 4.9 yards per attempt in his past three seasons, so he has an outside chance at 100 yards.
Sanders doesn’t provide much as a pass-catcher, but he does handle most of the RB responsibilities around the goal line. His 11 touchdowns were second only to Hurts on the Eagles, and he scored twice in the NFC Championship. His price tag has increased after dipping to just $6,200 vs. the 49ers, but he has some upside in this matchup.
Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon have split the running back responsibilities in Kansas City over the second half of the year. Pacheco was more of the between-the-tackles grinder, while McKinnon handled the pass-catching responsibilities. That gave McKinnon a slightly higher ceiling on DraftKings, evidenced by two performances with at least 34.2 fantasy points near the end of the year.
However, we saw a slight shift in the backfield in the AFC Championship. Pacheco played on a season-high 57% of the team’s snaps, and he also had a 50% route participation. His 15% target share was also a new season-high, and he responded with five catches for 59 yards. McKinnon had fewer targets, receptions, and receiving yards than Pacheco in that contest, so it’s possible that Pacheco has surpassed him from a fantasy perspective.
Still, it’s also possible that it was merely a one-week aberration. Both players grade out very similarly in THE BLITZ, with McKinnon projected for slightly more ownership at a slightly lower price tag. I would probably take my chances with Pacheco – especially since the Eagles’ have been a bit more vulnerable against the run than the pass – but you can make a case for both players. Both Chiefs’ RBs are actually positively correlated, so using both could result in a very unique roster construction.
Dallas Goedert is the No. 3 pass-catcher for the Eagles, but the gap between him, Brown, and Smith is not that wide. Goedert has a 19.8% target share through the regular season and playoffs, and he’s racked up at least six targets in back-to-back contests.
The only thing Goedert hasn’t really done this season is score touchdowns. He found the paint in his first playoff contest, but he managed just three touchdowns in his 12 regular season contests. That was right in line with his expected production per PFF, which makes sense with the Eagles’ run-heavy approach near the goal line. They led the league with 57.35% of their touchdowns coming on the ground, and that figure has jumped to 80% over their past three games.
Goedert ultimately has some appeal in this spot, but his mediocre scoring potential slightly caps his upside. Tight ends typically need to find the paint for a ceiling game, and Goedert’s touchdown prospects are lower than most.
The Chiefs’ wide receivers are going to be a tough group to handicap this week. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is the most expensive option on DraftKings, and he’s been their most reliable option during the regular season. He routinely leads the position in snaps, but that hasn’t resulted in a ton of production. That changed last week with JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney suffering injuries, but both players will be back in the lineup vs. the Eagles. He feels overpriced for that scenario, but he’s still worth some consideration on FanDuel. His price hasn’t seen nearly the same increase on that site, resulting in a slate-high Bargain Rating of 89%.
Like MVS, Smith-Schuster has been a reliable option for the Chiefs for most of the year. He ranks second on the team in target share, but the gap between him and Kelce is pretty massive. JuJu has racked up just 15.6% of the team’s targets over their first 19 games, which is well below what you would typically expect for a No. 1 receiver.
His role has looked even bleaker of late. JuJu had just one target in the AFC Championship game, despite playing 45% of the snaps before getting injured. He had two targets in his previous two contests and seven total in the two games before that. He hasn’t posted a positive Plus/Minus since Dec. 18 vs. the Broncos, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown since Dec. 11 vs. the Texans. He stands out as a decent per-dollar option in THE BLITZ, but he carries plenty of downside as well.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Kenneth Gainwell ($5,000 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Gainwell’s price tag has become a bit inflated due to his recent performances. He’s had double-digit carries in back-to-back games, but most of his work has come in the second half of blowouts. He had more than five carries just once during the regular season, so he seems due for some regression. He stands out as one of the worst options on the slate from a per-dollar perspective.
- Kadarius Toney ($4,400 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Toney is becoming the NFL equivalent of Anthony Davis: Extremely talented but extremely fragile. The Chiefs are going to limit his snaps on Sunday, but expect him to be highly involved when on the field. He’s been targeted on 30.5% of his snaps since arriving in KC, which is a higher rate than even Kelce. He had seven targets in his first playoff contest, and he had two targets on just four snaps before getting injured vs. the Bengals. He’s going to be popular, but Toney makes a ton of sense at these price tags.
- Kickers and Defenses: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them. Most people seem to expect this game to be pretty high scoring, so these options could check in with lower ownership than usual. However, the under has gone 9-3-1 in 13 Super Bowls with a total of at least 50 points, and the under is 8-3 in Chiefs’ games with a total of at least 50 points this season. Ultimately, there could be a bit less scoring than expected.
- Skyy Moore ($3,800 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Moore was one of the unsung heroes for the Chiefs vs. the Bengals, stepping up following the injuries to JuJu and Toney. However, with the team near full strength, he might not have much of a role vs. the Eagles. The team could still design some gadget plays for him, but his receiving prop is down to just 7.5 yards on most sportsbooks. That suggests they don’t envision him doing much.
- Justin Watson ($2,000 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Watson should be another casualty of the Chiefs’ improved receiving depth. His receiving prop isn’t quite as low as Moore’s, but it’s still pretty darn low. He did play on 38 of 68 snaps against the Jaguars, but he finished with just one target.
- Quez Watkins ($1,400 on DraftKings, $6,000 on FanDuel): Watkins typically sees plenty of snaps as the Eagles’ WR3, but that hasn’t led to much fantasy production this season. Still, he’s an interesting value option if you’re stacking the Eagles. He has a correlation of +0.52 with Hurts, so Hurts tends to do well when Watkins does.
- Noah Gray ($1,200 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): Gray is the Chiefs’ version of Watkins. He’s on the field plenty and has a +0.48 correlation with Mahomes, so he’s a nice way to round out your Chiefs-heavy lineups.
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